Concern For Texas

[Sean in New Orleans]

Surprised the NHC has paid so little attention to the system in the GOM. The system has been turning into a storm for the last 18 hours. Last night I even stated it would be a Tropical Storm before this day was up. I'll be shocked if the system isn't a storm before midnight. It is clearly developing over the very warm GOM waters. Some danger lurks, but, when the system strikes just to the S. of Galveston at the end of the week, I see no reason that it won't be a Category 1 hurricane and we could see possible evacuations of Galveston Island as a precaution. Stay tuned, IMO....

[Steve Cosby]

Surprised the NHC has paid so little attention to the system in the GOM.

Really - I understand it didn't qualify earlier but there really needs to be more hype about that system right now.

[RL3AO]

Just because they didn't call it a depression doesn't mean they aren't paying attention to it.

[hicksta]

Dont say galvestonnnnnnn lets say itl recurve out to sea :]

[Dean4Storms]

Surprised the NHC has paid so little attention to the system in the GOM. The system has been turning into a storm for the last 18 hours. Last night I even stated it would be a Tropical Storm before this day was up. I'll be shocked if the system isn't a storm before midnight. It is clearly developing over the very warm GOM waters. Some danger lurks, but, when the system strikes just to the S. of Galveston at the end of the week, I see no reason that it won't be a Category 1 hurricane and we could see possible evacuations of Galveston Island as a precaution. Stay tuned, IMO....

So little attention?

They had a Recon fly into it just today. The Recon did not find a closed low nor even a TD. What do you want the NHC to do, issue a STDS to tell us it might form? Please.

[Rainband]

I think the NHC knows what they are doing

[NewOrleansMom]

Dont say galvestonnnnnnn lets say itl recurve out to sea :]

I'll second that for the good people of Galveston.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, I should rephrase....I know they can't mention it until they find a closed lower level circulation, but, it's going to blow up...this is going to be a hurricane when it strikes Texas. A high pressure is developing on top of the system, it has outflow, and there is NO shear...this baby is going to blow and we could see evacuations in Texas in the next two days, IMO. We'll see, but, I've watched many of these things blow up....maybe we'll get some recognition of what is occurring with the 11PM report......

[Cape Verde]

There is really no time for this system to become anything more than a nuisance before it hits land. Frankly, with the 103 degree heat in Houston, I'd welcome it. But I think south Texas is more likely to get the bulk of it.

[galvbay]

I was in 40 miles south of Corpus during this storm. If I remember correctly, it developed very quickly in the GOM. gb


from Texas Hurricane History--USA Today

Hurricane Celia, Auqust 3, 1970: Hurricane Celia was one of the most destructive storms to ever hit Texas, with damages estimated at $1.6 billion (in 1990 dollars). Celia became a hurricane on August 1 in the Gulf of Mexlco and intensified rapidly in 15 hours before it crossed the coast north of Corpus Christi. As it moved over land, spectacular damage occurred from a "cluster of high energy winds of short duration," (also called downbursts or microbursts). The extreme winds raked across the residential and business areas in less than half an hour. It was estimated that winds reached as high as 160 mph for several seconds. During those disastrous seconds, incredible damage occurred at the airport and an adjacent mobile home park which was completely demolished. Fortunately, only 11 died in the Corpus Christi area due to the state of preparedness by its disaster prevention agencies.

[beachbum_al]

Sean I think you are jumping to conclusion. I am sure the NHC and the local mets are keeping an eye on it. I am all the way in Mobile are and our mets are keeping an eye on it but don't think it is going this way. More toward Mexico and TX area.

[meteorologyman]

even if this storm does become T.S or Cat1 storm the biggest concern is the rain rather than the wind. if anything they need to prepare for a flood, and if they were going to call for evacuation it would only be for some counties and if they r going to call for evacuation it needs to be done now b/c waiting for the storm to come will be too late. so I don't think evacuation will be underway, but I'm sure you can do it voluntarly.

Remember Texains turn around don't drown, b/c a car made it across doesn't mean you will that car made have crossed it at the last second.

[Downdraft]

Dont say galvestonnnnnnn lets say itl recurve out to sea :]

Recurve out to sea? Dude, it's in the Gulf of Mexico.

[swampdude]

a recurve would bring it to my Rita ravaged neighborhood!

[pontalba]

Hey, we need the rain... send it to Beaumont. I'm not leaving for a cat 1.

[crazycajuncane]

It's a good looking storm, but hopefully no rapid intensification occurs. Texas finally getting some action! Hopefully just rain and a little wind for them.

[GoldenTriangle]

I seriously doubt Galveston would ever call for evacuation of a cat 1...maybe Bolivar Peninsula but not Galveston proper.

[DanKellFla]

I looks to be just a nuiscance for Texas at this point, but intesity is always a tricky subject.

As for Galveston, I thought they would evacuate for a Cat 1 because of the geography.

[GoldenTriangle]

Dan, I believe the Galveston seawall is designed to withstand a cat 3 but they might call for evacuation for a cat 2 because of limited egress. I could be wrong but I don't remember them ever calling for an evac of a cat 1 storm..