Texas-Louisiana Hurricane Info Thread

[TexasF6]

I like what the poster said in active forums about starting this thread. I would encourage posters to post relevant information i.e.--evacuation discussions, local preps from your locales, and eventual released information when it comes down. I would begin making light preparations now if I lived anywhere in the GOM at large right now....

[Berwick Bay]

Moderate concern being expressed by local mets tonight. I personally think that this storm will be a US Coastal storm. Here in SW La. hurricane kits and proper generator use are being reviewed. I think that the overall anxiety level is set to really ramp up by Saturday. Some models beginning to show a more northerly track into the central GOM. Can't imagine that the ULL won't be a player here in directing this storm on a more NW course into the GOM.

[PTrackerLA]

I think this is a Texas storm but I've seen TOO many times tracks shift to the right as landfall gets closer (i.e. Rita), so I'm not letting my guard down at all. Looks like 2006 was the only year of rest for us along the gulf coast.

[wlfpack81]

Well, I'm new to the Houston area as of 2 months ago (new job) and before I moved here I had a joking gut feeling that as soon as I got here we'd get a hurricane. Of course being a met and of course using reason I just laughed it off but now it's getting kind of interesting. Obviously Dean is still days away from GOM interests but I know personally if things continue to point towards a strike possibly along the western Gulf coast I'll probably start my preparations tomorrow and Saturday b/c by Sunday or Monday I expect it would get hectic if thing is point towards Texas, especially the Houston metro area.

[vaffie]

Great to have you Wolfpack81!

[shelby]

Well, I'm new to the Houston area as of 2 months ago (new job) and before I moved here I had a joking gut feeling that as soon as I got here we'd get a hurricane. Of course being a met and of course using reason I just laughed it off but now it's getting kind of interesting. Obviously Dean is still days away from GOM interests but I know personally if things continue to point towards a strike possibly along the western Gulf coast I'll probably start my preparations tomorrow and Saturday b/c by Sunday or Monday I expect it would get hectic if thing is point towards Texas, especially the Houston metro area.

No offense - but after what I am seeing and hearing - it come become a zoo if the forecast puts Houston in the cone. WIth that being said - welcome to SE Tex

[vaffie]

No offense - but after what I am seeing and hearing - it come become a zoo if the forecast puts Houston in the cone. WIth that being said - welcome to SE Tex

Yeah, it could get crazy here. At the present rate, the 5 day cone will include Brownsville for the 5 am advisory tomorrow. Getting close already.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[jasons2k]

Moderate concern being expressed by local mets tonight. I personally think that this storm will be a US Coastal storm. Here in SW La. hurricane kits and proper generator use are being reviewed. I think that the overall anxiety level is set to really ramp up by Saturday. Some models beginning to show a more northerly track into the central GOM. Can't imagine that the ULL won't be a player here in directing this storm on a more NW course into the GOM.

I alluded to this in another thread, but the real important role the ULL will play is keeping a channel of moist air out ahead of Dean as it approaches the coast. This would theoretically prevent any dry air intrusion into Dean, allowing the storm to maintain intensity right up to landfall. Unfortunately, it won't be a repeat of Rita or Katrina as far as that goes...

Glad you're back BB

[jasons2k]

See analysis forum for info from Jeff: viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97047

TX EOCs ramp up tomorrow.

[mgpetre]

I've been waiting for a thread to post this. I didn't want to ask this in the middle of the Hurricane discussion so here goes.

I'm truly worried about the potential impact of Dean. We moved to Houston from B'Ham 6 months ago and I know what Katrina felt like in B'Ham (60+ mph winds for over 6 hrs) and can only imagine what it was like on the coast. I am a weather nut obviously and would love to sit through a Cat 1 or Low level Cat 2 in my house in Missouri City, but I know it's crazy to think about remaining here during a Cat 3 or higher... So I have to be at work on Monday and I'm supposing if there are signs of evacuations we will then be let out of that obligation. My father-in-law who lives just down the road has lived in Houston for 30 years and has absolutely no concerns about this storm. He will not even think about an evac. I have a 13 year old son and wife to think about. I know if I wait too long I may be stuck in crazy traffic. I want to see a storm to some extent, but I don't want my family to be hurt. Any suggestions on how to think about this situation? (In our neighborhood, flooding does not appear to be a concern at all.)

[digitaldahling]

I've been waiting for a thread to post this. I didn't want to ask this in the middle of the Hurricane discussion so here goes.

I'm truly worried about the potential impact of Dean. We moved to Houston from B'Ham 6 months ago and I know what Katrina felt like in B'Ham (60+ mph winds for over 6 hrs) and can only imagine what it was like on the coast. I am a weather nut obviously and would love to sit through a Cat 1 or Low level Cat 2 in my house in Missouri City, but I know it's crazy to think about remaining here during a Cat 3 or higher... So I have to be at work on Monday and I'm supposing if there are signs of evacuations we will then be let out of that obligation. My father-in-law who lives just down the road has lived in Houston for 30 years and has absolutely no concerns about this storm. He will not even think about an evac. I have a 13 year old son and wife to think about. I know if I wait too long I may be stuck in crazy traffic. I want to see a storm to some extent, but I don't want my family to be hurt. Any suggestions on how to think about this situation? (In our neighborhood, flooding does not appear to be a concern at all.)

We stayed in Mobile during Katrina and Ivan. Not something I relish doing again but it wasn't as bad as I expected. You're what, about 30 miles inland? If you're staying, get a generator.

My sister-in-law lives in Bay City. It took them over six hours to get to Houston when they left for Katrina. So, if you're leaving, leave early.

[Sambucol]

mgpetre:

Here's a link to our emergency management. Under related links, go to Should Your Family Evacuate. That will help answer a lot of questions.
http://www.baytown.org/public/emergency ... efault.htm

[vaffie]

It's good you're thinking ahead. I'm going to wait a day or so before I decide what to do. My family is completely opposed to the idea of leaving this time, but they were for Rita too, and we ended up leaving. I expect that it's going to be an easier evacuation this time--the city and the state are better prepared this time and have gone through it before, but it still will be horrible. Let's just see what happens. Perhaps nothing will happen. Who knows. It's happened before. I think by Sunday--it's going to be looking pretty certain it's track give or take a hundred miles, and Monday-Tuesday, everyone who should be will be on their way out.

[opera ghost]

Spend your worry time between now and the time to evacuate making sure that you have all of your hurricane supplies and checking over and discussing with your family any valuables you want to take with you when you leave. Figure out how much space you have and make suer everyone knows what their portion is- last moment clashes over who's junk is more important for the last square foot of car space isn't a good way to start off an evacuation.

How a workplace handles news of evacuation depends entirely on it's location and employee impact. Unless the evacuation is mandatory, you may very well be expected into work regardless. Check with your boss and find out-

1) At what point will they close the business to customers.
2) At what point can employees leave.
3) Whether evacuation time is compensated or unpaid vacation.
4) If there's anything that your company would like you to do when you leave. (My husband does IT consulting work and his firm usually sends off backup copies of stuff with evacuating employees)

[HouTXmetro]

I have relatives in Galveston and my mother lives in Houston but in a major Hurricane evacuation zone. I will be monitoring closely and making preparations Sunday if need be.

[TSmith274]

I really don't think this storm is coming to LA. But I do think Houston is in the crosshairs, perhaps slightly west of Houston.

[Portastorm]

See analysis forum for info from Jeff: viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97047

TX EOCs ramp up tomorrow.

At the state level, we started ramping up Thursday morning. We're doing all we can to keep people safe. It's difficult though when you have personnel spread out across the state dealing with the floods from June/July, Erin from this week, and now Dean!

[mightymouse]

to anyone in houston-BE PREPARED,BUT DON'T GET ON THE ROADS!!!! this might seem selfish,but for rita,even when the storm was targeted for galveston,there was no need to leave. if you live in mo. city and you don't flood from a normal rain shower,you will be fine imo. unless you have old people or babies that depend on electricity,then get a gen. or leave. if you have a fairly young and healthy family,please wait to leave.just have everything ready and loaded.then when they say go ...only when they say go,leave.obvisouly this was the problem with rita.houston folk and surronding areas(mo city,katy,conroe humble,etc...)leaving when they were NOT the ones in immediate danger.galveston,tiki island,bayou vista,lamarque,texas city,dickinson,san leon,bacliff,kemah should be the first out.sorry if this sounds cold,but it's the truth.

[jasons2k]

to anyone in houston-BE PREPARED,BUT DON'T GET ON THE ROADS!!!! this might seem selfish,but for rita,even when the storm was targeted for galveston,there was no need to leave. if you live in mo. city and you don't flood from a normal rain shower,you will be fine imo. unless you have old people or babies that depend on electricity,then get a gen. or leave. if you have a fairly young and healthy family,please wait to leave.just have everything ready and loaded.then when they say go ...only when they say go,leave.obvisouly this was the problem with rita.houston folk and surronding areas(mo city,katy,conroe humble,etc...)leaving when they were NOT the ones in immediate danger.galveston,tiki island,bayou vista,lamarque,texas city,dickinson,san leon,bacliff,kemah should be the first out.sorry if this sounds cold,but it's the truth.

It depends on the situation. For almost every scenario, yes, only those in a surge zone should leave. That's for a Cat 1-3.

But in a WCS, i.e., a strong Cat 4 or 5 making LF in Galveston-Freeport - if you live anywhere South of US59 (west of downtown) or south of US90 (east of downtown), you're crazy for staying.

Unless you live in a concrete bunker, OR your house has concrete reinforced walls, the roof isn't gabled and is bolted all the way down the foundation, you have metal storm shutters, you have a storm-rated reinforced garage door, and everything is rated to withstand 150mph winds (always use a higher number due to the debris factor) then one could consider staying. I'd venture to say almost NOBODY has that as all the houses here are stix and brix. Most of the houses here don't even have the walls bolted to the foundation, much less the roof. Do you think a few nails from a nail gun is going to hold a pine stix & brix house together in inland Cat 3 or 4 conditions, especially when none of your neighbors have a reinforced garage door and probably won't board-up any windows?? Do you trust that all your neighbors downwind from you secured all their outdoor furniture, garbage cans, etc? Do you think all those construction sites in Mo City, Pearland, & Richmond will clean-up all those loose 2X4's and sheetrock laying around in piles?? I could go on & on but I think I've made my point.

SO, unless you had one of those hurricane shelters built in your closet/garage, if you live in the areas I outlined, it may sound selfish, but you'd be crazy to stay IMO.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner this AM:

Very dangerous Hurricane forecasted in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Residents along the Gulf coast should review hurricane preparedness plans and be prepared to enact these plans early next week.

Discussion:

Dean is looking somewhat ragged this morning likely due to a combination of fast forward motion, dry air, and weak wind shear. Even so wind gusts of 87 and 64 mph were recorded in the Windward Islands as Dean moved through this morning. The storm continues to race westward at a very fast pace under the force of deep layer ridging over the SW ATL.

Track:

GIV upper air mission data was ingested into the models last evening and the result is a weaker SE US high and more of a poleward turn toward the NW in the Gulf of Mexico. The trusty GFDL and UKMET continue to point toward an upper TX coast strike while the GFS remains aimed at N Mexico. GFS ensembles have trended northward as well suggesting a higher threat to TX. Key forecast track factor hinges on weakness in ridge over TX caused by Erin and upper level TUTT over the Bahamas. TUTT is forecasted to move westward toward TX arriving Sun/Mon with Dean following behind from the SE. Due to the ridge weakness left by Erin the TUTT may slow as it reaches the western extent of the sub-tropical high over TX allowing Dean to turn more NW in the Gulf. This is what is being suggested by the latest guidance with the GIV data. With this in mind a dangerous hurricane is forecasted to be moving into the Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday and possibly be in the western Gulf by early Thursday. Extrapolation of NHC 5-day forecast point shows a landfall near Brownsville.

It is strong urged that residents not focus on the thin black line in the forecast track but the overall forecast error cone. There is equal risk within the cone…remember Rita.

Intensity:

Dean is struggling with its fast forward motion and dry air entrainment this morning as well as crossing an area that is usually not very favorable for tropical cyclones. All intensity guidance continues to make Dean a major hurricane and a cat 4 before landfall on the Yucatan. GFDL shows Dean as a monster 185mph cat 5 in the west Caribbean. There should be some weakening over the Yucatan if in fact that is where the hurricane tracks and then some re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Upper air pattern looks favorable for intensification over the Gulf however past hurricane that have interacted with the Yucatan have had a hard time regaining intensity…we shall see.

Preparation Actions:

Dean is forecasted to be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico with a potential threat to the TX coast.

Residents should review their hurricane action plans and be fully prepared to put them to use early next week.

Evacuation zone areas should review their evacuation route plans and be prepared for possible evacuation orders early next week.

The state of TX along with local emergency planners will be activating their plans for the arrival of adverse conditions by early Thursday morning…including moving fuel supplies to the coast and evac. routes and sweeping evacuation routes for road hazards. TXDOT will be preparing contraflow exchange points on I-45, US 290, I-10, US 59 this weekend in the event mass evacuations are required. US 290 hurrevac lane (shoulder) will be prepared for traffic flow this weekend.

Will continue updates through the weekend.