Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

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WxGuy1
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Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

#1 Postby WxGuy1 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 5:26 am

Mods: This is an "active" TD, but it's not Dean, so I put it here.

I know all the focus is on Hurricane Dean, and Erin made landfall a few days ago, but Erin has made a major resurgence overnight in OKlahoma! Wind gusts as high as 82mph have been reported, and the eye has reappeared in the past 5 hours. I can't believe the HPC has kept Erin as a Tropical Depression on the latest 4am advisory (yes, the HPC is still issuing advisories since Erin is still a TD!), given that there have been numerous reports of SUSTAINED winds in the 40-50 mph range. The flooding has become very significant across parts of Oklahoma, with 3 hr rain totals >6", and some 12 hour totals approaching 10". There was even a recent report of a house that has been swept away by flood waters in southwestern OK. Additionally, several tornadoes occurred Saturday afternoon and evening across SW OK and N TX, and more tornadoes are likely today in ne OK and SE KS. The KTLX VWP had been indicating >50kts sustained winds about 2 km above the ground.

There is a little baroclinity with this storm (slight temperature gradient across the storm), and the precip has grown a little more asymmetric in the past few hours. Regarldess, this is a warm-core, tropical system In the very least, this is a subtropical storm.

Heck, Erin looks better than some hurricanes watched!

Meteogram from Watonga OK (west of OKC) -- Note the sustained >40 mph winds for 2 hours, and the gusts > 60mph. Also note the extreme pressure falls (for a land station) of ~8 mb /3 hr.

IR image Sunday morning -- Check out the "scalloped" appearance to the upper-level outflow common to intensifying cyclones

I have several other images up at http://www.tornadocentral.com/now/Erin/ ... This is probably the most fascinating mesoscale event I've ever seen in Oklahoma (and I'm a storm chaser and meteorologist, so I've seen quite a few fascinating events). I'm not sure of the reason for the strengthening of Erin in the past 12 hours, but I've never seen an eye like this in Oklahoma, that's for sure! Add in the >60 mph wind gusts and extreme rainfall rates, and it's made for an extremely interesting morning.

Current Image (note that there is significant attenuation occurring with the radar attm, even at S-band, so the actual intensities are stronger than indicated):
Image
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#2 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 19, 2007 5:48 am

971
WTNT35 KWNH 191046
TCPAT5

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 19 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...T.D. ERIN IS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES
IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

ERIN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND IS SUPPORTING
THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDESTORM
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO OVER 50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST...ABOUT 35 MILES WEST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA..

THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/HR...WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS AROUND 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM AROUND...AND TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERIN. THE MOISTURE FROM ERIN HAS MOVED
NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
STATES...THEREBY INCREASING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE
AREAS.

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MANY COUNTIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 100 AM CDT
SUNDAY

...TEXAS...

HOUSTON METRO AREA

LOCKWOOD (HUNTING BAYOU) 11.02 PAST 3 DAYS
SENS RD 9.33 PAST 3 DAYS
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU @8TH ST 8.50 PAST 3 DAYS
SIMS BAYOU @MARTIN LUTHER KING 8.43 PAST 3 DAYS
SOUTH MCGREGOR WA 7.05
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 5.51

BOERNE 5.6 NE 10.23 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
SAN ANTONIO/STINSON MUNI ARPT 9.62
FAIR OAKS RANCH 10 NNE 9.62 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
OZONA 22 SE 9.06 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
FREDERICKSBURG 10.6 SSW 8.26 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
LACKLAND AFB 2.4 NW 8.30 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
HELOTES 1 ENE 7.94 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GREY FOREST 0.2 N 7.73 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KERRVILLE 5.9 SE 7.46 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
KELLY AFB/SAN ANTONIO 7.46
HONDO 8.7E 7.33 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
EL DORADO 7.19 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
WINTERS 6.67 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
GILLESPIE 6.55 SINCE 12 AM FRIDAY
ROBERT LEE 6.34 24 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY
SAN ANGELO/MATHIS 5.96
6 WSW BOERNE 5.84
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT 5.79
BANDERA 14.3 WNW 5.70 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY
ABILENE MUNI ARPT 5.56
HONDO MUNI ARPT 5.02


...OKLAHOMA...

FORT COBB 9.00
EL RENO 7.00
MINCO 6.00
APACHE 5.00
WATONGA 4.20

...MINNESOTA...

ROCHESTER 4.89


...WISCONSIN...

MADISON 4.04
LA CROSSE 4.00



ERIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY INTO MISSOURI...WHILE ALSO
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY STATES.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1
WEST...NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 15 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN
THUNDERSTORMS...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.

KONG/ECKERT

FORECAST POSITIONS


INITIAL 19/0300Z 35.7N 98.1W
12HR VT 19/1200Z 36.0N 98.3W
24HR VT 20/0000Z 37.4N 97.5W

$$
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#3 Postby WxGuy1 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 6:01 am

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/HR...WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS AROUND 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


That is painful to read. About 5 hours ago, we had numerous sites reporting 40-50mph sustained winds. I'm interested to see how the NHC does their post-storm analysis. I really can't see why it wouldn't be considered a tropical storm. There were sustained winds > 35mph even outside the heaviest storms. Oh well.

Even at this time, there's a surface observation site (Marshall OK, N of OKC) reporting sustained 35mph winds gusting between 48 - 60 mph. The maximum wind gusts today (Sunday) per the Oklahoma Mesonet can be viewed at http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/meso ... y.gust.gif ... More than 10 sites have reported wind gusts >50 mph since midnight.
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Re: Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

#4 Postby Diva » Sun Aug 19, 2007 6:06 am

Pretty incredible! :eek:

Note to self.....when evacuating from any future hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast, Oklahoma may not be far enough north! :roll:

Stay safe up there y'all.
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Re: Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

#5 Postby Starburst » Sun Aug 19, 2007 6:16 am

At Watonga Airport they had wind gusts of 82 mph
73°F
(23°C) Humidity: 100 %
Wind Speed: SE 48 G 82 MPH
Barometer: 29.68"
Dewpoint: 73°F (23°C)
Visibility: 0.75 mi.
More Local Wx: 2 Day History:
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#6 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 19, 2007 6:46 am

That radar out of Oklahoma City still looks amazing! :eek:
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Re: Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

#7 Postby Wthrman13 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 6:56 am

This has got to be one of the most amazing weather events I've witnessed in my whole life, and I've seen a lot of crazy weather. This about takes the cake for sheer fascination. I haven't been able to sleep the whole night. For about 2 hours there it was constant heavy rain, wind and lightning. Just when we think we are beginning to understand the atmosphere, it throws something like this at us. This event is going to generate all kinds of papers and theses, I can tell you that right now.
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Re: Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

#8 Postby Starburst » Sun Aug 19, 2007 7:01 am

Even the pressure is starting to fall with Erin. She is actually gaining strength on land :?: :?: I am with you I have watched this thing all night in amazement. I am just glad I was here to witness it :wink:
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Re: Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

#9 Postby WeatherWiseGuy » Sun Aug 19, 2007 7:03 am

At first I thought this was some kind of joke. This is absolutely unbelievable! My only question is: Does this system have a warm or cold core? Since when did Oklahoma become a vast ocean capable of sustaining a tropical system?
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Re: Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

#10 Postby Starburst » Sun Aug 19, 2007 7:06 am

Well she was a depression but with the latest winds documented I believe it would classify as a tropical storm once again
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Re: Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

#11 Postby WxGuy1 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 7:20 am

WeatherWiseGuy wrote:At first I thought this was some kind of joke. This is absolutely unbelievable! My only question is: Does this system have a warm or cold core? Since when did Oklahoma become a vast ocean capable of sustaining a tropical system?


It's a warm-core system... Check out the 500mb analysis from 00z/19 and note the warm maxima over sw OK and nw TX. I've never really seen tropical systems intensify over land, but I'm sure it's happened before. Someone has mentioned Ivan over NC (TD to TS?), and I think they've happened down in Australia several times before. Of course, I'm speaking more in terms of the last 10 years, not "ever". Regardless, in MOST respects, Erin intensified into a Tropical Storm overnight. I NEVER thought I'd see a well-defined eye from a tropical cyclone moving into OKlahoma City, that's for sure! The reflectivities are slowly decreasing in magnitude, but the structure still looks good. There was a media report of 10 feet of water over I40 in El Reno (~15 miles W of OKC).

CURRENT Oklahoma City RADAR
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Re: Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

#12 Postby Starburst » Sun Aug 19, 2007 7:29 am

It appears on the radar posted that the eye feature is actually getting some deeper convection around it.
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#13 Postby btangy » Sun Aug 19, 2007 8:03 am

This is also one of the most incredible things I've ever witnessed. Given there is no baroclinic forcing or ocean, what is going on?! What I think is happening is that Erin has become a "landphoon" or I guess in this hemisphere, a "landcane". It has been very hot over the region and instead of a large surface latent heat flux, there may be a pretty large sensible heat flux that is keeping Erin going and actually intensifying it!

I've never seen this happen over the US though and this may be an extremely rare event that we're witnessing. I envy you folks in Norman!
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Re: Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

#14 Postby Starburst » Sun Aug 19, 2007 8:10 am

It is amazing. She passed right over my house early this week and did not look as good as she does now! You know if she keeps on moving she could actually make it back into the gulf.
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Re: Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

#15 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Aug 19, 2007 8:31 am

This is simply amazing. Looks like a strong tropical storm with an eye over Oklahoma! Wow this is crazy.
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#16 Postby jasons2k » Sun Aug 19, 2007 8:41 am

Never seen anything like it, incredible! YEs, IMO it should be a TS
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#17 Postby jhamps10 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 8:43 am

Guys, I am SERIOUS now, I am in southern Illinois, should I be preparing for power outages/trees down etc like you guys have been for dean.



again I am NOT joking.
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Re: Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

#18 Postby weatherwindow » Sun Aug 19, 2007 8:57 am

Wthrman13 wrote:This has got to be one of the most amazing weather events I've witnessed in my whole life, and I've seen a lot of crazy weather. This about takes the cake for sheer fascination. I haven't been able to sleep the whole night. For about 2 hours there it was constant heavy rain, wind and lightning. Just when we think we are beginning to understand the atmosphere, it throws something like this at us. This event is going to generate all kinds of papers and theses, I can tell you that right now.

speaking of, are the metars and sat/rad imagery being archived?..as you say i see a budding thesis in this 8-) ....rich..ps were any special obs/launches ordered last night?
Last edited by weatherwindow on Sun Aug 19, 2007 10:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

#19 Postby Starburst » Sun Aug 19, 2007 8:58 am

I think you will be ok maybe some strong wind gusts but nothing major :wink:
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Re: Tropical Depression Erin -- inland over OK

#20 Postby LSU2001 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:41 am

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
451 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A MOST INTERESTING NIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN SEEMED TO HAVE REGAINED
STRENGTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HAS PRODUCED STRONG
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. EVOLUTION OF AN EYE-STRUCTURE HAS BEEN
RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WINDS OCCURRING
NEAR IT. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BUT WILL EXTEND IT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND NORTH
WHILE REMOVING SOME OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE
HEAVY RAINS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME LOCATIONS. AFTER TONIGHT...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FALL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED PERIODS ATTM.

I thought the above discussion was interesting. This is certainly a strange/rare event.
Tim
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