Track: GFS wins, although all the global models did a pretty good job(UKmet was a bit too far north overall), but the GFS locking on to a central yucatan landfall 5 days ago and then hardly moving has to be considered the best. Euro pretty much the same, if the europeans ever released more than the simplest data to the public I might give their model more consideration. GFDL is the clear loser, with its more northerly track.
intensity: TBD.
oh well, the GFDL cant win all the time.
model verification...GFDL loses(trackwise), GFS wins
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thunderchief
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gatorcane
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Re: model verification...GFDL loses(trackwise), GFS wins
The GFS had this thing moving over the FL Keys and South Florida for several runs at about 7-10 days out -- I don't think we can say the "GFS wins"
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thunderchief
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Re: model verification...GFDL loses(trackwise), GFS wins
One model run (or two) does not a model break, IMHO. I'll always put a lot of weight in GDFL for the tropics.
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