Fox News Editorial/Opinion on Government Forecasting

[PhillyWX]

Thought this was a bit ironic given how well the NHC did with the handling of Dean.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,293844,00.html

[tolakram]

One persons opinion and includes a lot of contradictions with very little expertise. So let's start an article about hurricanes by talking about snow fall predictions.

[Frank2]

This wasn't written by a Fox reporter, but, by a dolt who works for the University of Maryland...

As you mentioned, the NHC, despite earlier internal problems, did a very good job of forecasting Dean, despite fears from many that it would become a Gulf Coast issue...

Personally, and I hate to say this, I thought TWC did a poor job with Dean - their OCM's are obviously under a great deal of stress to "perform" during times like that - and it shows...

Because of this theatrical pressure, they often seem to lose contact with the issue at hand - giving, as was their by-line 15 years ago, "accurate and dependable weather forecasting, 24 hours a day"...

[PhillyWX]

One persons opinion and includes a lot of contradictions with very little expertise. So let's start an article about hurricanes by talking about snow fall predictions.

Very good point but this passes as 'news' unfortunately. Who looks worse here? Fox by posting something like this or NOAA, which has already been ripped around a fair amount due to the Proenza issue. To you and I, we may think differently about this response than the average joe or jane who does not have a full understanding of weather and hurricane predicting, nor pays attention to each forecast like we do.

[MWatkins]

The assertion that Accuwx was 12 hours faster on Katrina hitting New Orleans is an absolute lie. I verified out Katrina against forecasts made by both sources...that research can be found here:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/accu_x_nhc.htm

and

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/verification_katrina.htm (note: I have to reupload the maps and will do that tonight)

Also, the author should consider getting an editor:

But it should also remind everyone how poorly the National Hurricane Center has been at predicting storms.

Poorly is an adverb, it can't modify a noun (the NHC forecasts)...as in "the poorly NHC forecasts".

MW

[Steve]

>>John Lott is the author of Freedomnomics, upon which this article is based, and a senior research scientist at the University of Maryland.

Rick Santorum couldn't do it, and he got the boot. Thing is, there is no way that the people of the United States should pay for weather tools so that other companies can get them for free and sell it back to us. That's like anti-Americanism at its core. Ultimately, I'm not a consumer. I'm a human, and American at that. Some of these "ownership society" people are aboslutely nuts. All they see is a way to $cam money from the public. Put them in jail!

Steve

[PhillyWX]

The assertion that Accuwx was 12 hours faster on Katrina hitting New Orleans is an absolute lie. I verified out Katrina against forecasts made by both sources...that research can be found here:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/accu_x_nhc.htm

and

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/verification_katrina.htm (note: I have to reupload the maps and will do that tonight)

Also, the author should consider getting an editor:

But it should also remind everyone how poorly the National Hurricane Center has been at predicting storms.

Poorly is an adverb, it can't modify a noun (the NHC forecasts)...as in "the poorly NHC forecasts".

MW

I remember what was said and done in the aftermath of Rita with regard to Accuweather ripping the NHC's forecast.

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... ws_22.html

The graphic up top was the original that was on the web for a few hours before they edited it after catching heck from everyone, including the government, for what it said.

[Frank2]

[Per MW's comment] Poor grammar usage seems to have become a standard for many in media...

Thing is, there is no way that the people of the United States should pay for weather tools so that other companies can get them for free and sell it back to us.

I agree - however, those of us who are old enough, never thought we'd see the day when we'd have to pay $1,000 a year to a Cable broadcast company, in order to watch a television program...

[tolakram]

[Per MW's comment] Poor grammar usage seems to have become a standard for many in media...

Thing is, there is no way that the people of the United States should pay for weather tools so that other companies can get them for free and sell it back to us.

I agree - however, those of us who are old enough, never thought we'd see the day when we'd have to pay $1,000 a year to a Cable broadcast company, in order to watch a television program...

You don't HAVE too. A very important point. You want a 'better' product or more channels then you CAN pay for cable. If the NWS product is such crap I wonder why all the private firms went under.

[tolakram]

One persons opinion and includes a lot of contradictions with very little expertise. So let's start an article about hurricanes by talking about snow fall predictions.

Very good point but this passes as 'news' unfortunately.

No it doesn't, it's an editorial. There is nothing news about it and they labeled it as an opinion piece. There are a lot of opinions out there, some are better for ratings than others.

[PhillyWX]

One persons opinion and includes a lot of contradictions with very little expertise. So let's start an article about hurricanes by talking about snow fall predictions.

Very good point but this passes as 'news' unfortunately.

No it doesn't, it's an editorial. There is nothing news about it and they labeled it as an opinion piece. There are a lot of opinions out there, some are better for ratings than others.

If Fox wanted to be 'fair and balanced' perhaps they should have had an editorial presenting a supporting POV of NOAA on the same day as this opinion piece was written?

[dtrain44]

If everyone were a tenth as good at their jobs as the NHC forecasters are at theirs, we'd have better schools, better burgers, and better television news.

People aren't informed and don't know how tough it is to forecast a tropical system - the folks at the NHC and those who work on the models are the best or among the best in the world at what they do. Of course, that doesn't matter to shills like those on Fox - if they can blame the government for something, you can be sure that they will take every opportunity.

The real question from my point of view is whether the informed public, the NHC, and NOAA can do anything to educate people in these matters. What can we do to make sure that people see this sort of story for the crap that it is?

[HURAKAN]

If Fox wanted to be 'fair and balanced' perhaps they should have had an editorial presenting a supporting POV of NOAA on the same day as this opinion piece was written?

They are always fair and balanced towards one side.

[Frank2]

You don't HAVE too. A very important point. You want a 'better' product or more channels then you CAN pay for cable. If the NWS product is such crap I wonder why all the private firms went under.

True enough - when a NWS technician, I was always impressed at the dedication of the forecasting staff.

While AW, TWC or University meteorological staff are likely at home sleeping (or showing endless feature story reruns, as in the case of TWC), the NWS forecasting staff is busy writing forecasts, 24/7/365...

As far as the media industry is concerned - weather forecasting was not meant to lead to a career in acting - that's for the attorneys, celebrity chefs and race car drivers...

Sure, my opinion is biased, but, I was working for NWS forecasters on the overnight shift more times than I could count - it's at difficult times like that when a person understands the quality or professionalism of an employee...

[HURAKAN]

There should a class enforced in middle school or high school that provides the students with knowledge about the environmental threats in their area.

For example: If you live in a state like Florida, you should learn about hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, lightning, brush fires, drought, heat waves, rip currents, and more.

If you live in California, you should learn about earthquakes, floods, landslides, heat waves, rip currents, and more.

What I'm trying to say? Have the school boards enforce a class in a certain grade that will inform the students the threats they face in the region they live.

In this way we make people more conscious of what is around them. Then later when they are faced with this kind of problems, they know what to do.

[PhillyWX]

If Fox wanted to be 'fair and balanced' perhaps they should have had an editorial presenting a supporting POV of NOAA on the same day as this opinion piece was written?

They are always fair and balanced towards one side.

My tongue was firmly implanted in cheek when I said it.

[Downdraft]

In my mind NOAA is certainly open to criticism and to a lesser extent the NHC made themselves fair game after the spectacle they put on earlier this year. I still say a bunch of them need to fired, however, NOT because of their forecast skills. Anyone can project any scenario and then when one of them comes to pass they can say they got it right. What I can't stand is when you try to change your past mistakes by simply denying you made them. Does AW think Nagin or Blanco would have acted any differently pre-Katrina? The NHC is the best at what they do and if anyone doesn't think so they need to research what hurricane forecasting was like back in the 50's and 60's. Intensity forecasting does lack seriously behind track forecasting though. That being said NOAA ought to put their money on where the improvement is needed. There will be a cold front in hell before I pay Accuweather or anybody else for a weather forecast that's gathered using the tools I as an American taxpayer helped pay for.

[Wthrman13]

This article was, in my opinion, nothing but a crude hack job. Sure, it was an opinion piece, but as everyone (I hope) realizes, not all opinions are created equal, especially when they cite outright falsehoods (or at the very least, very misleading, partial information) as facts (the Accuweather forecast being more accurate than NHC for Katrina, for example). The article failed to mention the many many instances where seasonal predictions by certain private weather companies were waaaaaay off (what happened to our East Coast hurricane last year? Must have missed that one....), but has no problem slamming seasonal predictions by the government. He may even be right about the NWS forecasts for temperature being less accurate than private weather company forecasts (not sure about that), but even if that is correct, he again fails to mention the fact that the private agencies get their data from which they develop forecasts from (you guessed it!), the NWS.

[Downdraft]

This article was, in my opinion, nothing but a crude hack job. Sure, it was an opinion piece, but as everyone (I hope) realizes, not all opinions are created equal, especially when they cite outright falsehoods (or at the very least, very misleading, partial information) as facts (the Accuweather forecast being more accurate than NHC for Katrina, for example). The article failed to mention the many many instances where seasonal predictions by certain private weather companies were waaaaaay off (what happened to our East Coast hurricane last year? Must have missed that one....), but has no problem slamming seasonal predictions by the government. He may even be right about the NWS forecasts for temperature being less accurate than private weather company forecasts (not sure about that), but even if that is correct, he again fails to mention the fact that the private agencies get their data from which they develop forecasts from (you guessed it!), the NWS.

Well said and quite true!

[HURAKAN]

This article is better to ignore it. The NHC does the best job they can do with the resouces available. Increase funding in research, satellites, computer models, and if nothing gets better, then there is a problem. Lets better concentrate in the hurricane season and leave the press to make headlines on Britney, Lindsay, and Paris.