Low Forming Off Carolina Coast

[Bane]

it looks like we have a low that is forming off the coast that is going to hang around for a little while. anyone want to give a % on development?

[weatherwoman]

models are showing some development, i say it happens we can sure use the rain but i want to get my yard mowed first maybe do that this afternoon

[Chacor]

NWS Charleston SC AFD:

000
FXUS62 KCHS 281132
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
732 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE FCST AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY WED. A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC COAST TODAY AND DRIFT S TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
WELL OFF THE COAST THROUGH THU. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...BEFORE DISSIPATING S OF THE
REGION BY SUN. HIGH PRES MOVES BACK IN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

[...]

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
[...]
ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE TENDENCY OF MODELS NOW TO DEVELOP A
WEAK LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THE FRONT SAGGING THROUGH THE
AREA WED NGT. BOTH GFS AND NAM KEEP THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
AT THIS POINT TO HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT OVER LAND AREAS...AND WITH MID
LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST...I THINK THAT SOLUTION IS
REASONABLE.

[weatherwoman]

well bust my bubble!

[TampaFl]

From NWS Newport/Morehead City NC radar loop showing some circulation developing. Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=MHX&loop=yes

[BigA]

Definitely a spin there just off the North Carolina coast, as shown by radar. The visible shot looks decent, we'll have to see if it can stay together and deepen.

[rainydaze]

Can anyone help me decipher this morning's Miami NWS in laymans terms....it mentions the NC low and then I'm lost in all the model talk..lol.

MOST MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS/NAM/UKMET AGREE THAT A
SEPARATE UPPER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL DRAG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS INTO
SOUTH FL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL THEN LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION AS A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT AND ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO
BUILD BACK OVERHEAD. AT THE SURFACE...MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW FORMING AND MEANDERING OFF THE NE FL
COAST...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
FL PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. EXACT POSITION OF
THIS TROUGH IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...AS NAM AGGRESSIVELY MOVES IT
INTO THE FL STRAITS ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE DEVELOPING SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE WAVES ALONG IT.

[Sanibel]

Good spot. Jumped right off the coast from a frontal boundary and started spinning right away.

[CrazyC83]

CMC develops it as it moves away into the Atlantic...

[storms in NC]

Oh well there was a little hope of some rain.

Today feels really nice like fall is in the air. Now if we can get some rain.

[Meso]

CMC,MM5 and GFS develop it,if it's the same area...

[cpdaman]

isn't there another low at 35 N 70 W drifting south off NE NCarolina as well

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

which is "the" low

[cpdaman]

THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE
LOW WITH THE TRAILING FRONT OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES IS A BROAD AND WEAK LOW. THE NEWEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD
TROUGH MAY START TO FORM A MORE ORGANIZED BUT WEAK LOW. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BUT THIS FEATURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO BE PICKED UP BY THE GUIDANCE AND NO CONTINUITY HAS
BEEN ESTABLISHED YET

i think this is talking about the low i mentioned at 35 70 and the new low that should develop south of the carolina's and drift toward east florida ( assume central i.e melbourne) this feature is not forecast to be tropical at least yet, we shall see

[cpdaman]

good visible of both lows

http://www.weatherunderground.com/satel ... 1k/US.html

one at 35/70 and the other at 33/77

radar reflection of south western and more dominant low

at 33/77

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... X&loop=yes

anyone else alive out there

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA IS ASSOCIATED A
NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[CrazyC83]

5:30pm TWO:

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA IS ASSOCIATED A
NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Signs they may go ahead and call this 95L soon?

[RL3AO]

Signs they may go ahead and call this 95L soon?

It might be 96L if it doesn't hurry up.

[Emmett_Brown]

This area of low pressure seems to me to be the biggest US threat at the moment. Why? It is closest to the US, it is moving slowly S into an area of lowering shear and increasing SSTs near the Gulf Stream. It already has a closed circluation, and Tstroms are slowly increasing. It may eventually head back W toward FL.

[Cyclone1]

Wow, it's moving south? I usually count out storms that move northeast off of NC, as I was doing with this one. But, it's southward movement means this oculd be a potential player.

[OuterBanker]

Might as well be the last on page 1. Waters are really warm all along the se coast. Lowest H2O surf on NC coast 82. Diamond shoals 85.5. Most in Gulf are used to the temps, not here.

btw, new invest on tpc. The one below Cancun. Not this