Klotabach and Gray Sept. update

StormWarning1 · #1 Postby **StormWarning1** » Tue Sep 04, 2007 9:24 am

Klotzbach and Gray Sept update.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Fore ... ep2007.pdf

Not much changes. One less hurricane but the same number of named storms for the season.

#2 Postby **OuterBanker** » Tue Sep 04, 2007 9:58 am

Except they are expecting Sept to be busy (around twice norm). Already met a third of their after Sept 1 forecast intense hurricanes and about half of thier IHD with Felix.

dwg71 · #3 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Sep 04, 2007 10:04 am

Forecasting 9/5/2 from this point forward. I think 6/3/1 will be closer.(jmo) I expect another little lull after Felix. I don't think 99L will develop.

#4 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Sep 04, 2007 10:47 am

dwg71 wrote:Forecasting 9/5/2 from this point forward. I think 6/3/1 will be closer.(jmo) I expect another little lull after Felix. I don't think 99L will develop.

I agree with your numbers. I know many are in awe with having Cat.5 Dean and Felix within two weeks and that's understandable. As I've said before too many get excited about the number of named storms that are predicted each season to develop instead of focusing on the intensity and where they make landfall. Can you imagine what the thinking would be in the future had we had two Cat. 5 hurricanes make U.S. landfall yet only have 10 total named storms the entire season. Well we still have most of September and early October left. I personally think what we get from now on will be homegrown (GOM,NW Carr. or SE Coast if it doesn't form in the Atlantic within the next week. My numbers are still 11-13 named storm with one more biggie (Cat.3 or higher) left.

KWT · #5 Postby **KWT** » Tue Sep 04, 2007 11:15 am

Pretty much in line with 2001 from the sounds of things and we are still a good week ahead of the 2001 right now and also two cat-5's higher then that year as well. We are still well on course for an above average ACE total as well, even if we had dwg71 numbers I'd have thought we'd have no problems coming in above 06 and above average.

#6 Postby **MGC** » Tue Sep 04, 2007 3:50 pm

I still stand by my numbers of 13/7/5. Changing your numbers this late is like picking the score in the 7th inning....MGC

dwg71 · #7 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Sep 04, 2007 4:01 pm

I'm not sure, I would have to find original forecast thread, but I think I did have 13/7/3, but search is disabled so I dont have access to it.

flwxwatcher · #8 Postby **flwxwatcher** » Wed Sep 05, 2007 11:03 am

They decided to include Andrea into their total storm count afterall. They are still expecting a active October and I agree with that 100%

Klotabach and Gray Sept. update

Klotabach and Gray Sept. update

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