Western Caribbean Disturbance

[boca]

I noticed some convection moving northward off of Panama this morning while looking at 93L. I'm going to watch this area to see if something pops down there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Sanibel]

Looks like an EPAC-centered disturbance.

[jhamps10]

I will say this, GFS in the 12z run develops something from the carribean, and heads it into the GOM.

[oyster_reef]

Here is a wave model that shows it hitting right behind 93L 2 days later...
This wave model is based on the GFS run

http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW- ... /swell/in/

[jhamps10]

18z GFS takes this into the yucatan channel and into the GOM as a low. links can be found in the 93L model thread.

[Wren]

http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW- ... /swell/in/

Oyster, thanks for the link! I'd not seen that one before.

[Sanibel]

The models busted badly on the last Caribbean wave. They were saying all the same things they are saying here.

[jhamps10]

00z Same deal, develops a low in the carribean, and keeps it as a low all the way to........... You guessed it, Louisana, a 1-2 punch.

[wxmann_91]

The GFS progs a massively favorable environment with a large UL anticyclone that moves from the Carib north to GOMEX. All we're missing is a system to exploit that environment.

I believe that was what the Euro was catching onto a week ago w/ that spurious NOLA system?

[boca]

Nice blowup off the coast of Nicaragua.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[Sanibel]

Hmm, that blob looks like it could have something. Right under 93L.

[jhamps10]

Hmm, that blob looks like it could have something. Right under 93L.

yeah, looks real good. and the gulf looking favorable really has me concerned. Could the EURO had the wrong week for a Nola hurricane. Remember last friday as it had a hurricane developing out of the Carribean sea and heading towards the north central gulf coast.

It looks good I'll say that. 300% better than 93L

[jhamps10]

12Z gfs has this getting to the Louisana coast in 72 hours!

a little fast don't you think?

[punkyg]

What ever happen to the other thread about the models developing something in the carribean? is this the area the models are saying will develop.

[HURAKAN]

Persistence is the key. Don't get real excited after about 24 hrs of persistence. And even if persists for more than 24 hrs, development is never guaranteed.

[Frank2]

When you look at both disturbances on the visible (since that's actually what it looks like), neither one appears to be very much...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh2.html

that enhanced IR is always misleading - it can make a thundershower look like a typhoon...

LOL

[Comanche]

Like clockwork that JB is on calling out areas over a week in advance! I know he has some critics here, but he is on this season with calling the areas to watch way in advance. Late last week he said to watch the southern Caribbean for a system in about 10 days to be in the GOM.

[jhamps10]

Like clockwork that JB is on calling out areas over a week in advance! I know he has some critics here, but he is on this season with calling the areas to watch way in advance. Late last week he said to watch the southern Caribbean for a system in about 10 days to be in the GOM.

he's on fire this season. no critic from me this year. And unlike 93L, This should be warm core all the way.

[KWT]

It does look interesting but there does look like there is quite a bit of shear just to the north of the system presently, possibly due to the low complex of/with 93L presently.

[jhamps10]

look at 13.8/ 82
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Does that look like a cyclonic turn to anyone else? Also convection looking reliatvely good for approaching DMIN.