With the equinox signaling the sun crossing the equator and the fatter portion of the equatorial atmospheric heat bulge sagging south, lapse-rates are steepening and the caps are eroding....
Four features with convective swirls this morning:
#1 is the fellow in the Gulf; drifting NNW at present. Banding developing rapidly.
-- completely unofficial forecast: 90% chance TS; 75% Hu before landfall in S. La.
...potential to intensify explosively into major hurricane a la Opal. Has more running room than Humberto, is moving slower, and isn't a third over land to start with. GoM not cooled by cold-fronts yet, and warm, humid continental airmass won't dry system out appreciably before impact. Portions La could pick up over foot of rain in days leading up.
#2 is over Barbados, moving WNW. Has more organization but fewer CB than Sat.
-- completely unofficial forecast: 33% chance TS; 33% Hu before western Caribbean. This either croaks or gets mean.
#3 is behind #2, at 15N/48W; tiny but vigorous swirl with small blob of CBs.
...may have a chance, but is likely to be cannibalized by #4's expansive inflow
#4 is the most impressive-looking mid-Atlantic system this year; possibly a TS already.
...good chance of becoming a long-lived, maxi-state major hurricane; low enough starting position to threat leeward islands if a WNW heading, but will have to thread a lot of needles to reach the US.
