NHC too quick to name storms?

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Tstormwatcher
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NHC too quick to name storms?

#1 Postby Tstormwatcher » Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:08 pm

I believe that the NHC has been too quick to name some of the storms this year. Could they be naming some storms that shouldn't be named just to pad the numbers? I feel that Andrea, Chantel, Erin, Ingrid, and Jerry should not have been named. Those names were just wasted. What do you think?
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#2 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:13 pm

How can a name be wasted? All of those were tropical (subtropical in Andrea's case) and hence were named.
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#3 Postby southerngale » Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:24 pm

They use a certain criteria. If the storm qualifies, it gets named.



Also, just a reminder... be careful with this thread. NHC bashing will not be tolerated.
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#4 Postby Tstormwatcher » Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:42 pm

I'm not bashing them, I am just wondering why some of those storms were named so soon. Several were gone the day after they were named.
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Derek Ortt

#5 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:52 pm

lets see

Andrea: had gale force winds measure by recon

Chantal: Clearly had gale force winds as derived by QUIKSCAT and Dvorak estimates

Erin: Had TS winds measured by recon

Ingrid: Has TS winds measured by recon

Jerry: You MAY have a point


I do not understand the line of thinking in the first post at all
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Re: NHC too quick to name storms?

#6 Postby amosmoses » Sat Sep 29, 2007 8:21 pm

yeah i dont agree with you man, they all met the standard...its not the NHCs fault theres so many flash in the pan storms this year
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Re: NHC too quick to name storms?

#7 Postby jinftl » Sat Sep 29, 2007 8:56 pm

Not sure i understand....just because a storm was short-lived doesn't it mean it shouldn't have been named...it was what it was...it met the criteria at the time

...i don't really think anyone is number padding...if anything, the folks on here who claimed this season a dud weeks ago are probably upset that we are already at the 13th named storm...at this pace we might see 20!!!
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#8 Postby stormcrow » Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:00 pm

I have noticed a tendency to regard anything that is not a hurricane approaching the Conus as a waste of time.
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#9 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:09 pm

I think the NHC named all storms...Actually if I were
working there there are a couple systems that I would
have classified that they did not classify:
TD 10 as a tropical storm based on watching it
and also an invest that was in the Atlantic a couple of
months ago that had the circulation of a TS as well
as that 99L system back in July
that developed a well defined
circulation as it crossed into mexico and recon
had found 50 mph winds w/o a close circulation so IMO I would say 16 storms
but the NHC knows more than me.

At this pace we have 13 named storms if october gets 3-4 we would
easily have 17 and if we have an active october we get 19 and possibly
even go to the Greek alphabet...but too early to tell...

NHC: 13/4/2
Me: 16/4/2

But the NHC is much smarter than I am.
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#10 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:10 pm

I have noticed a tendency of people on this board not caring about scientific accuracy.
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:15 pm

Image

I think one may have been missed.

Unfortunately, not all storms are pretty, but if it looks like a cyclone, RECON confirms it's a cyclone, and therefore, the NHC thinks it's a cyclone, then it's a cyclone.
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Re: NHC too quick to name storms?

#12 Postby jinftl » Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:18 pm

stormcrow wrote:I have noticed a tendency to regard anything that is not a hurricane approaching the Conus as a waste of time.



I think you are absolutely right...maybe just storms where Jim Cantore is reporting from should be named!!!
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Re:

#13 Postby amosmoses » Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:29 pm

stormcrow wrote:I have noticed a tendency to regard anything that is not a hurricane approaching the Conus as a waste of time.


ive noticed that every time somebody makes a comment that is conus-centered for lack of a better term, they get slaughtered, theres a lot of people who seriously disagree with that philosophy and make it known...so even though threre is the i like huricanes because they cause damage element here theres also a lot of people who are genuinely interested in all tropical systems, its hardly a forum wide mindset
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#14 Postby Buck » Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:34 pm

I trust the NHC's judgement.
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#15 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:36 pm

I trust the NHC's judgment, but they seem much more liberal to upgrade systems this year than in years past. Of course, that means the scientific record is going to be a bit altered.
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Re: NHC too quick to name storms?

#16 Postby MGC » Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:44 pm

The NHC has been rather liberal in the naming of systems for some time now. Personally, I think the liberal naming is to get those numbers up! More named systems equals more money in the budget. NOAA can go to Congress and say "Tropical cyclone numbers are up, we need more money for research, recon...ect." Since most members of Congress don't know the difference between a tropical low and a non-tropical low NOAA can get that budget increase. My agency does the exact same thing to keep funding up, its all about money my friends.....MGC
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#17 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Sep 29, 2007 11:09 pm

when hurakan posted that 96L picture yes that should also
count in addition to TD 10 being a tropical storm
so I think we had...

15 named storms so far
15/4/2
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Re: NHC too quick to name storms?

#18 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Sep 30, 2007 12:20 am

The NHC is not in the business of "padding numbers"!!! GIVE ME A BREAK!!!! I am not even going to continue furhter with this because I would have to ban myself. What a ridiculous assertion!!! Do you think that if they "get the numbers right" they get some sort of bonus or more money???

NHC must have really been on a BINGE in 2005!!!!!SHEESH!!!
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Re: NHC too quick to name storms?

#19 Postby jinftl » Sun Sep 30, 2007 1:32 am

vbhoutex wrote:The NHC is not in the business of "padding numbers"!!! GIVE ME A BREAK!!!! I am not even going to continue furhter with this because I would have to ban myself. What a ridiculous assertion!!! Do you think that if they "get the numbers right" they get some sort of bonus or more money???

NHC must have really been on a BINGE in 2005!!!!!SHEESH!!!



Totally agree...these assertions are ridiculous and unfounded....what's next...surge heights and damage estimates from Katrina were exaggerated in an effort to get more government aid?

It doesn't make any sense that by classifying many more storms...very few of which had any impact on the U.S....and some of which were never close enough to land to send research planes into...would be the clincher to more funding

...and the reasoning that we are in a more active cycle is not new in anyone's eyes...including those with political pull.

Another Andrew 25 miles north of where his eye made landfall....another Katrina...when the public suffers blows like that and people are suffering and in need of help...that will be a platform against which polticians will work for more funding....it is not going to happen by naming every wave that is in the Central Atlantic.

Hurricane damage....in dollars...that's what brings Washington onboard...not storms that fizzled far off of our coast.
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Re: NHC too quick to name storms?

#20 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Sun Sep 30, 2007 8:09 am

The NHC does not have to "pad" their numbers to get more funding...The fact is public safety will be the reason they get the funding and nothing else. Heck if hurricanes were not a threat at all to the US there would be no reason to have a tropical prediction center to begin with.
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