carribean development?

[punkyg]

Should we watch this area,
i know i will cause it was mentioned in the TWO.
yes the shear is 20kt to 25kt over the area of disturbed weather, but i think it might develop since its moving west northwest into some shear thats alittle more favorable.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif
now of course it could like others systems and not develop at all, but until then lets keep watching.

I present to you all the "Blobs of the Carribean" ain't i funny.

[BigA]

Yes. Worth Watching. NHC says "slow development possible" and it is in a climatologically favored area.

[punkyg]

Somethings up with the first blob it looks like its trying to spin up.
do you think a low is developing with this one. if you say yes then i agree with you.


the second one don't look as good as the first one to me, but it has more convection. lets watch both over the next couple of days to see if one of them develops.

[cycloneye]

5:30 PM TWO

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS LOW HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

[cycloneye]

18z NAM at 84 Hours

The NAM shows low pressure in the NW Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

This post will be used for the posting of the 18z GFS run.

18z GFS at 30 Hours Shows low in Western Caribbean

18z GFs at 42 Hours North of Honduras

18z GFS at 54 Hours Moves slowly westnorthwest

18z GFS at 72 Hours Almost Stationary

18z GFS at 84 Hours Still mainly stationary

18z GFS at 96 Hours Inland in Yucatan I will stop here.If there is anything important later in this run I will post it.

[Derek Ortt]

shouldn't this be in the invest 92L thread?

[cycloneye]

There is confusion about where is what or what is where that I prefer for now to use this Caribbean thread for this,until all gets cleared out.

[hurricanetrack]

It should be put in the "not likely to develop but keep people guessing" thread. We ought to start one of those...

[Category 5]

It should be put in the "not likely to develop but keep people guessing" thread. We ought to start one of those...

It would be the longest thread on the site by next week.

[hurricanetrack]

I tell you, looking at the 18Z GFS only, there are a number of possibilities for development over the next week or so. Look at about 168 hours at what develops near SE Florida. The upper levels show a large cut off low moving on by to the north and perhaps, just perhaps, that would leave high pressure building back in to block this and send it more to the north or even back west in to Florida. We'll see what the rest of the run shows, but it is still interesting. A lot of potential but nothing solid yet. The guessing will continue for some time to come...

[hurricanetrack]

Nope- out it goes. Oh well. The thing is that there are so many areas of low pressure showing up- hard to know which one to place the bets on.

[cycloneye]

That is why I decided to not post any more runs of the models until things get cleared as you said,there are some lows scattered around that nothing is clear now.The guessing game continues.

[BigA]

With all these lows springing up and generally low shear forecasted in the W Caribbean, I would think that at least one of these would become a tropical cyclone. I personally think it will either be from the area NW of Puerto Rico, which should become 93L soon, or the area in the NW caribbean.

[punkyg]

I see that yesterday the northern blob stuck around and move north.
its looking better then yesterday although the convection on the northern side has weakened.

the other blob has dissipated.

oh and we don't need another thread about the same wave.
sorry others i got this

[caneman]

From the 8:00 NHC TWD

SFC OBSERVATIONS AT 09Z
SHOW A BROAD AREA OF FAIRLY LOW PRES WITH AN ESTIMATED 1006 MB
LOW CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 17N81W. A 0312 Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED GOOD TURNING IN THE NW CARIB BUT REVEALED THAT THE WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY VERY LIGHT. AN INFRARED ANIMATION SHOWS SOME
INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT BUT THE ACTIVITY STILL REMAINS
DISORGANIZED FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 78W-83W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
17N84W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE W OR SW.

[Sanibel]

As long as the scattered trough remains keep watching this for formation.

[cycloneye]

This area is now invest 94L.Go to active Storms Forum to discuss all about 94L.