Why no development? Quite a favorable MJO

[hurricanetrack]

Look at the MJO as of late:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

One of the most favorable charts I have seen all season- look at all the green in our part of the world. We also know that there is a decent La Nina and SSTs are above normal in a good deal of the Atlantic Basin. We also have a lot of convection in the Basin- a lot!

So, what's the problem? Why are we not seeing development? This is a serious question and not one of "the season is over", etc. Something is missing, obviously, what is it?

[gatorcane]

ummm look at the Caribbean. Seems like a "monsoon-like" trough has finally set in...and just in time for October.

I'm beginning to think this season may really end at the end of Nov. this year.

[Derek Ortt]

I don't beleive the MJO really affects the Atlantic because the signal is so weak when it reaches our basin

[MGC]

Derek is right, the MJO has litte effect on TC formation in the Atlantic basin. I've plotted the phase of the MJO against the time a TD forms and there is only a very slight positive correlation. Therefore, I've conclude that the MJO phase is not an issue. The data is there if you want to go back and chart it........MGC

[flwxwatcher]

Derek is right, the MJO has litte effect on TC formation in the Atlantic basin. I've plotted the phase of the MJO against the time a TD forms and there is only a very slight positive correlation. Therefore, I've conclude that the MJO phase is not an issue. The data is there if you want to go back and chart it........MGC

Interesting.. How many years have you been charting this correlation??

[hurricanetrack]

Still looks like nothing is going to develop over the next 10 days. October could turn out to be 0/0/0 at this rate. And it's not just the Atlantic Basin- why the heck is the East Pac so quiet this season too? Something really has gone awry it seems. We go from 28 named storms just two years ago to a paltry 13 named this season after, what, 10 last season? At least El Nino was the blame in 2006. What is the reason for 2007?

[boca]

Still looks like nothing is going to develop over the next 10 days. October could turn out to be 0/0/0 at this rate. And it's not just the Atlantic Basin- why the heck is the East Pac so quiet this season too? Something really has gone awry it seems. We go from 28 named storms just two years ago to a paltry 13 named this season after, what, 10 last season? At least El Nino was the blame in 2006. What is the reason for 2007?

Its shear but what is causing the shear is the question. The season was above normal but other than Dean and Felix it was very dull. Bring on the cold and snowy winter here in Florida,only kidding.

[wxman57]

Mark,

The graphic you posted identifies regions of enhanced or suppressed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), not necessarily an MJO pulse. Take a look at this weeks MJO update PowerPoint. You'll need PPT or Microsoft's free PPT viewer to see the presentation below.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.ppt

The current MJO is described as very weak. Studies have shown a strong correlation between the MJO reaching the eastern Pacific and significantly enhanced TC activity in the Gulf/Caribbean Sea 15 days later (Mahoney was one of the researchers, forgot the other). But, in this case, there is no significant MJO.

[hurricanetrack]

Gotcha. Bottom line is that nothing indicates any solid chances of development anywhere in the Basin for the next week at least...would this be a reasonable assumption?