Are the seasonal forecasts worth anything???

[FORMERWXMAN]

We are now in the beginning of November with our 14th named storm. More than likely
the rest of November with be quiet. With this in mind, the 2007 hurricane season will go down as a near normal season.

MY POINT..

Both Dr. Gray and NOAA, predicted a season way above normal. Thus do
we need these seasonal forecasts when most are never close to being correct.

It seems that all these forecasts do is get the insurance industry in a frenzy to
raise rates.


MY OPINION

[x-y-no]

I'm inclined to agree. For whatever reason, skill in seasonal forecasting appears to have declined over the past few years. It's becoming apparent that these forecasts are not reliable enough to base any kind of policy on yet.

[RL3AO]

I've never been a big fan of them. While NOAA and CSU have some of the best meteorologists in the world, they are no where close enough to have the ability to accurately predict something over a 6-12 months away.

[Category 5]

I agree. All they do is scare people, hype up the insurance company like you said, and give people an excuse to complain when we don't get 20 storms.

[HUC]

DOES SOMEONE CAN GIVE A CLEAR COMPARAISON BETWEEN RESPECTIVE SCORES OF A SIMPLE CLIMATOLOGICAL PREDICTION AND THESE KIND OF PREDICTION(GRAY AND OTHERS) ???

[DanKellFla]

I don't think they are worth much. Personally, I think they need to be placed back in the "Academic" world. They are essentially worthless at this point. Nobody every said forecasting science was easy. I hope they keep the research going.

[JonathanBelles]

NOAA August 9, 2007 13–16 7–9 3–5

These numbers were pretty accurate. The hurricane and MH numbers were a bit high, but named storms is what counts.

[Sanibel]

Those numbers show an accurate prediction that failed to estimate the shear and negative conditions.

[Frank2]

As someone wisely mentioned here a few weeks ago, it seems we are in the age of "disaster forecasts", and, as you said, that creates a great deal of frenzy (and needless worry and anxiety).

While many financially seem to "benefit" from these long-term forecasts (the stock market is always very eager when it comes to accepting any type of forecast), it's the public that suffers, due to inflated costs that were inflated by often nothing more than someone's inaccurate vision of future events...

The reality is that to insist that "disaster forecasts" are to be considered as actual events in queue is nothing more than folly - but, as the Bible mentions, in the latter days, deception would make the truth very difficult to discern, at times even for those who were wise enough to understand the difference...

[DanKellFla]

NOAA August 9, 2007 13–16 7–9 3–5

These numbers were pretty accurate. The hurricane and MH numbers were a bit high, but named storms is what counts.

You're kidding. Right? After this season, with plenty of named storms, but few storm days you should know that there is more than just a name. But, it is a start at seasonal forecasting.

[Derek Ortt]

the NOAA forecast from August is only 1 cane short of its range and 1 MH short of its range

August forecasts do have skill. It's those other forecasts that leave a lot to be desired


fatc, it's the number of canes that has been used previously for verification purposes, not named storms

[JonathanBelles]

the NOAA forecast from August is only 1 cane short of its range and 1 MH short of its range

August forecasts do have skill. It's those other forecasts that leave a lot to be desired


fact, it's the number of canes that has been used previously for verification purposes, not named storms

even then, I think they hit it pretty close.

[HURAKAN]

If you go from - to +, the forecasts were excellent!!! j/k

Seriously, I believe it's possible to recognize the weather patterns affecting the Atlantic each year and make a reasonable forecast. Nonetheless, if you want a perfect forecast, then you have to ask God or any other supreme creator that you may have faith in.

Forecasts also take into account climatology, and we know that every year is different, which makes for the forecast to be erroneous.

When I look at a forecast of this kind, I usually don't take it seriouly, but from it I get the most basic information, will the season be active or inactive or average. These forecasts are an educated guess, and nothing more.

Education is another fundamental problem. People need to undertand that you must prepare for a hurricane season even if the forecast is 1/0/0. That 1 could be a tropical storm like Allison (01), extremely devastating.

[hial2]

I think it's a conspiracy between the forecasters, insurance company and stores like Home Depot and Lowe's to make extra profits..

Signed: 1963

The third shooter on the knoll

[gatorcane]

I've been saying this for years. These seasonal forecasts mean absolutely nothing. After this year. Dr. Gray and other experts will be questioned -- not to mention the fact that I question some of the systems classified as "tropical storms" this year because they were highly sheared and unhealthy.

[RL3AO]

not to mention the fact that I question some of the systems classified as "tropical storms" this year because they were highly sheared and unhealthy.

Well, Noel wasn't exactly the best looking 50kt storm at times. Looks can be deceiving.

[Frank2]

I think the problem, aside from the "disaster forecasts" mentioned earlier, is the fact that meteorologists (not the folks with the media, but, those in operational or research meteorology) view the statistics differently than the public. In fact, it might be similar to a physician viewing an outbreak of influenza - while the media may say that "a very active flu season is expected this year", physicians may interpret that same statement as being active, in the sense that it may be of more interest to those in their field, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the same season might be of interest to the public at large...

As a professional meteorologist mentioned here a few weeks ago, this season has actually been very active and interesting, particularly to those in research, since it has had everthing from Cat 5 hurricanes to weak tropical systems, but, as we all known, aside from those in the path of the several significant systems, the season was of little consequence to the general public - but was of greater significance to those in the field, so, in this case anyway, what seems to matter depends on which audience is listening...

The media, however, being prone to dramatics instead of truth, need to make as clear as they can what is fact and what isn't (though this isn't likely to happen)...

Freedom of speech does not mean saying whatever a person feels like saying, but, it does mean being thoughtful, considerate and responsible when it comes to what is being said...

[Sanibel]

Signed: 1963

The third shooter on the knoll

If read correctly, this post is admitting a second shooter.

[jinftl]

The season forecasts make for great news headlines...and whether a season is predicted to have alot of storms or a few...the message conveyed to the public is the same...be prepared, don't let your guard down, and whether there is 1 storm or 20....all it takes is one in your part of the world to reak havoc. The 'all it take is one' lesson hits home in particular in post-Andrew South Fla.

Seasonal forecasts taken out of context and sensationalized play on our recent storm memories and serve to reinforce our fears. And when fear is the motivation that the public is acting from every hurricane season, it is not surprising that there will be those who exploit these fears for gain (shady contractors for example).

Steering patterns, sheer forecasts, etc., are not mentioned in the media summary of seasonal forecasts, so the public equates an active season forecast with the belief many major storms will make landfall in the U.S., particularly major cities. Imagine the headlines from earlier this year if we knew '2 Cat 5's would make landfall almost back to back'...that would have conjured apocalyptic images of Miami, New Orleans, or any number of cities in shambles.

Taken out of context by those in the business of media, not meteorology, seasonal forecasts have become like flu pandemic fears that the media taps into....for now, it is the U.S.'s bird flu.

[wobblehead]

"Are the seasonal forecast worth anything?"
My answer is no.
A published hypothesis as to how active a particular season might be or what coastal regions might be vunerable is of no value.
We will always have storms, whether 1 or 100 in a season makes no difference to me.
I do value:
The earliest strike warning possible.
Realistic rainfall intensity.
Realistic storm surge data (calculated data should include coastal terrain)
Realistic surface wind velocities.