Recipe for a Storm

[lurkey]

Recipe for a storm: The ingredients for more powerful Atlantic hurricanes

Nov. 29, 2007

by Jennifer O'Leary

As the world warms, the interaction between the Atlantic Ocean and atmosphere may be the recipe for stronger, more frequent hurricanes.

UW-Madison scientists have found that the Atlantic organizes the ingredients for a powerful hurricane season to create a situation where either everything is conducive to hurricane activity or nothing is — potentially making the Atlantic more vulnerable to climate change than the world's other hurricane hot spots.

After the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, many worry what Atlantic hurricane seasons will look like in a warmer world. Evidence indicates that higher ocean temperatures add a lot of fuel to these devastating storms.

In a paper published today, Nov. 29, in the "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society," co-authors Jim Kossin and Dan Vimont caution against only looking at one piece of the puzzle. "Sea surface temperature is a bit overrated," says Kossin, an atmospheric scientist at UW-Madison's Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies. "It's part of a larger pattern."

Continued here . .

[tolakram]

Wow, what an interesting and frustrating article.

They claim they can use the AMM to predict activity a year in advance ... so what did they predict?

In addition to helping researchers understand and predict the effects of climate change on hurricane activity, Vimont and Kossin can forecast the AMM up to a year in advance.

If the AMM is positive, all the conditions are right for hurricane development. If it is negative, those living on the coasts can generally expect a quieter hurricane season. Vimont and Kossin plan to further develop their AMM forecasts for use during the hurricane season.

The duo also hopes to continue to research the physical relationships that constitute the AMM as well as how future climate change will affect these modes of climate variability.