Noel Tropical Cyclone Report

[CrazyC83]

It's just out. 163 deaths total now, and they also mention the uncertain nature as it moved to the northeast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL162007_Noel.pdf

[CrazyC83]

Also adding up the damage brings a cost of $580M (and that is only from Florida, Cuba and the Dominican Republic).

[Derek Ortt]

Noel again shows the dangers of inland flooding from tropical cyclones and serves as a reminder that this is the most dangerous aspect of TCs

Of interest is that even with Katrina, more than 95 percent* of TC related deaths in the Atlantic since like the 60's (may even be sooner) are due to fresh water flooding




*numbers are skewed some by a storm named Mitch

[CrazyC83]

If you look at the ten Atlantic storms since 1950 with over 1,000 deaths (Hazel, Flora, Inez, Fifi, David, Gordon, Mitch, Jeanne, Katrina, Stan), only Katrina was not primarily an inland flooding event (involving major river flooding or mudslides).

[Derek Ortt]

that may apply to storms that caused more than 100 deaths since 1950.

I know of only 4 cases where the surge killed more than 100: Audrey, Camielle, Katrina, and Felix (Camielle's rains also killed well more than 100)

[HurricaneRobert]

I think the WMO will try to blame policy rather than the storm and choose not to retire Noel, especially since it was only a tropical storm when it did most of the damage to Hispaniola. Of course I will strongly disagree with them.

[Cyclone1]

If they don't retire Noel, I'll lose all respect for them. Which isn't much as it is... after hearing why Gordon wasn't retired.

[Derek Ortt]

Noel absolutely should NOT be retired.

I'd retire Bret long before I recommend Noel for retirement. Also, Gordon was not retired, because Haiti never asked for it to be retired. Same thing with Emily, nobody has ever asked for its retirement

[CrazyC83]

I still think it is a coin flip on retirement for Noel. Personally I think they should, but their past history suggests such may not happen. I think Dean and Felix will probably be retired though.

[Cyclone1]

I know Emily shouldn't have been retired, and was rightfully kept on the list.

But I'm pretty sure Gordon was requested for retirement, but wasn't retired citing "poor preparations" as a reason.

In my opinion, any storm that kills over 150 people should be retired.

[Ptarmigan]

Noel absolutely should NOT be retired.

I'd retire Bret long before I recommend Noel for retirement. Also, Gordon was not retired, because Haiti never asked for it to be retired. Same thing with Emily, nobody has ever asked for its retirement

I remember Klaus in 1990 got retired, yet it only killed 12 people. I don't remember Klaus too well. Gordon should of been retired though.

[HurricaneRobert]

If they don't retire Noel, and six years from now another Noel causes more damage but fewer casualties, people are going to accuse the WMO of putting a price on the lives of Dominicans. They're going to have that problem eventually, but that's just one reason why the naming system here is so stupid. They should get rid of all the moldy names that have been used and start with new ones.

[Derek Ortt]

the Dominicans or Haitians must ask for retirement.

Typically, Haiti does not ask

[HurricaneBill]

the Dominicans or Haitians must ask for retirement.

Typically, Haiti does not ask

Ironically, Haiti was the first country to request a name be retired. Hurricane Hazel in 1954.

[CrazyC83]

the Dominicans or Haitians must ask for retirement.

Typically, Haiti does not ask

Ironically, Haiti was the first country to request a name be retired. Hurricane Hazel in 1954.

I thought it was the US that made that case? Although no less than 5 countries had legitimate retirement cases there...

[gilbert88]

Why shouldn't Noel be retired? Are a particular country's casualties "worth more" than others'?

[RL3AO]

Why shouldn't Noel be retired? Are a particular country's casualties "worth more" than others'?

1. It has to be requested by a country
2. Even if it is, it is not a guarantee to be retired. The biggest example is Hurricane Gordon in 1994. Killed 1100 in Haiti but wasn't retired because the WMO said they didn't do enough to prepare.

[Derek Ortt]

Haiti also did NOT request Gordon to be retired. I do not believe that there has ever been a request turned down (although Klaus should have been)