12Z tropical Model suite

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ameriwx2003
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12Z tropical Model suite

#1 Postby ameriwx2003 » Sat Aug 09, 2003 10:38 am

Tropical model run on our system in Central Atlantic( Note scroll down past the EPAC TEST SYSTEM)

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03080915
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chadtm80

#2 Postby chadtm80 » Sat Aug 09, 2003 10:40 am

Very Interesting...
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Aug 09, 2003 10:43 am

Only one tropical model, the LBAR, makes this system a threat to the Southeast Coast in the 5 day period on this run. SHIPS brings it to 53 kts at the end of the forecast period (DSHPS the same - 53 kts) so it's presumed to be over water the forecast period.

SF
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ColdFront77

#4 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Aug 09, 2003 3:05 pm

Early to mid August having an area of potential development that practically disappeared yesterday making a come back and may indeed be Erika in the making.

Those 65 to 75 degree water temperatures along the northeast Florida coast will apparently play a role in 91L's ultimate intensity if it moves over those waters. Yes, I know this cool pocket of sea surface temperatures isn't very "wide"; about 20 miles out, but still. The water has been running in the low 80's forty-three nautical miles east of Saint Augustine, Florida [although was just under 80 degrees earlier today].

Water temperatures north of Georgia are in the low 80's.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Sat Aug 09, 2003 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#5 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Aug 09, 2003 3:15 pm

Very interesting indeed!! E coast needs to be on their toes for sure!!
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#6 Postby Colin » Sat Aug 09, 2003 4:27 pm

Oh Boy...we really don't need anymore rain here... :o
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ColdFront77

#7 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Aug 09, 2003 4:42 pm

If and when the Bermuda High moves westward, a low pressure system won't be able to move up the coast.
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