NOLA Evacuation Plan

[themusk]

The first thing the Congressional investigation needs to do is get all the emergency action plans together...everyone's...and hold people accountable to whether they followed their plan. AND DO NOT PLAY POLITICS. Hearings...unfortunately...are usually set up to blame some little guys in the loop...and to protect the major political figures who are really at fault (regardless of political party...they always protect their own).

AGREED.

While I think that the lead political figures probably were not singlehandedly screwing up, by virtue of their office they had a duty to step in, bark orders, overrule, and do whatever it takes to execute the plan and to get the job done even when parts of the plan failed. Whoever advised or influenced them needs to be ferreted out and held accountable as well.

And, frankly, when plans like this get derailed, usually politics and the influence of special interests are the cause.

There's a reason we plan in such exquisite detail. We plan because when lives are at stake and every minute counts you need to know exactly what to do, what tools you need in order to do it, and where you can find them. If you're (generic "you", most certainly not AFM you )going to not execute the plan, you had better have a d@%&#d good reason for it (i.e., it no longer meaningfully corresponds to the ground truth).

Or you had best get out of the business of protecting citizens and their property against harm, so you don't end up killing anyone.

[artist]

Air Force Met - I can't even begin to feel what you must feel having known from the beginning that things may not be going as you knew they were required to!

[artist]

one other thing I noticed - all of those that were special needs patients- the ones the Dr.'s are so upset about trying to figure out their meds, etc. - there was a provision for this as well. Reports were to be filed each May and more often if they could swing it - with info on those patients. These patients and the Dr.'s would not have to be going thru what they are as well. This was to be filed on all those that were home bound, etc.

[jburns]

Themusk...

You can BET there is a congressional investigation coming...and I say lower the boom on everyone that did not follow their plan...local...state...fed...doesn't matter.

If the initial local response does not adhere to the plan then it totally invalidates any plan further up the chain.

[Air Force Met]

Themusk...

You can BET there is a congressional investigation coming...and I say lower the boom on everyone that did not follow their plan...local...state...fed...doesn't matter.

If the initial local response does not adhere to the plan then it totally invalidates any plan further up the chain.

That's exactly correct. If the higher ups plan for a response for 50,000 people because the state and locals followed the plan...and then there are 150,000 people because the state/locals didn't follow the plan...it really puts your plan into a tailspin.

Another way to look at it: Say you are cooking thanksgiving dinner for 20 people...and at 11AM...50 people show up...how well will your plan work? To include food, seating, drinks, etc?

Probably not very well. Chances are...a lot of people are going to be ticked that they are hungry and sitting on the floor.

[Air Force Met]

Then there's this from Sunday the 28th:

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — In the face of a catastrophic Hurricane Katrina, a mandatory evacuation was ordered Sunday for New Orleans by Mayor Ray Nagin.

Acknowledging that large numbers of people, many of them stranded tourists, would be unable to leave, the city set up 10 places of last resort for people to go, including the Superdome.

The mayor called the order unprecedented and said anyone who could leave the city should. He exempted hotels from the evacuation order because airlines had already cancelled all flights.

Gov. Kathleen Blanco, standing beside the mayor at a news conference, said <b> President Bush called and personally appealed for a mandatory evacuation for the low-lying city, which is prone to flooding.</b>

http://www.nola.com/newsflash/louisiana/index.ssf?base/news-18/1125239940201382.xml&storylist=louisiana

Let's remember that the track had it near NOLA on Friday night...and over NOLA Saturday morning.

[Derek Ortt]

the local officials responsible for not following the plan should be punished to the maximum extent allowable

[greeng13]

the local officials responsible for not following the plan should be punished to the maximum extent allowable

agreed. wholeheartedly.

i think blanco let her emotions get the best of her in the aftermath-as well as nagin-and that led to a further, more extreme, downward spiral to a near anarchy state

[cancunkid]

BEIJING (Reuters) - Typhoon Matsa battered China's eastern coast with strong winds and heavy rain on Saturday morning, killing one and forcing more than a million people from their homes, state media reported.



Just thought it was interesting that China was able to evacuate 1.24 million people.

[greeng13]

BEIJING (Reuters) - Typhoon Matsa battered China's eastern coast with strong winds and heavy rain on Saturday morning, killing one and forcing more than a million people from their homes, state media reported.



Just thought it was interesting that China was able to evacuate 1.24 million people.

that doesn't necessarily mean they evacuated...that just means they left their homes (well the exact words said they were forced) maybe due to not having any homes left?

either way asians understand how to work together for the common good. the US values individuals and individuals decisions. and in a way that seems like it might be part of the NO downfall (people wise not flood wise b/c the city was built under water)

[artist]

wow!

[StrongWind]

The bureaucrats needed to implement this plan probably evacuated themselves Friday and Saturday...

The buses people keep pointing to here were not under the control of the city. Even if they were, most of the drivers probably would have been unavailable, unreachable or unwilling to drive them.

As to those bureaucrats who left before executing their part of the plan and leaving their fellow citizens to suffer/die - in the military it's called desertion. Enough said about that.

Using school buses is IN the plan. The plan is supposed to be workable and not just a feel-good work product.

As to the bus drivers - how many didn't even know they were in the "Plan?" Making arrangements with people AHEAD of time goes a long way to getting their assistance and cooperation.

Even so, the planners should have recognized that it may be difficult to get enough actual school bus drivers and either axed the provision or put in contingencies to get other vehicles and/or drivers.

[THead]

the local officials responsible for not following the plan should be punished to the maximum extent allowable

How do you think the defection of up to 2/3s of the NO police force effected the execution of the plan? I'm not sure when most of them left the area, but I'd think a good number of them may have just evacuated themselves, before the storm.

[artist]

as a law enforcement officer do you not swear to uphold your duty?
wonder if they can be charged?

[Mac]

And this is the City of New Orleans' plan:

Evacuation planning and actual implementation has to be based upon certain assumptions. It must be understood that the need to evacuate elements of the population can occur at any time, events resulting in evacuations occur with various amounts of lead time and every evacuation will be unique and offer unexpected challenges to those conducting the evacuation. Evacuations in response to hazardous material spills or sudden severe weather are provided with little or no warning, and often have to be accomplished after the fact, and in a disaster response environment. Throughout the Parish persons with special needs, require special consideration regarding notification, transportation, and sheltering. Resources of equipment, facilities and personnel are more difficult to locate and coordinate when an evacuation is required during late night or early morning hours. If possible, advance warning should be given so an evacuation can be coordinated. Adequate provisions should be maintained at all times in order to conduct a warning or alert of an area.

Certain hazards, such as a hurricane, provide some lead time for coordinating an evacuation. However, this can not be considered a certainty. Plus, the sheer size of an evacuation in response to an approaching hurricane creates the need for the use of community-wide warning resources, which cannot be limited to our City's geographical boundaries. Evacuation of major portions of our population, either in response to localized or citywide disasters, can only be accomplished if the citizens and visitors are kept informed of approaching threats on a timely schedule, and if they are notified of the need to evacuate in a timely and organized manner. If an evacuation order is issued without the mechanisms needed to disseminate the information to the affected persons, then we face the possibility of having large numbers of people either stranded and left to the mercy of a storm, or left in an area impacted by toxic materials…

General evacuations that may result from an approaching hurricane will be ordered by the Mayor of the City, upon the recommendation of the Director of the Office of Emergency Preparedness. The area affected by the warning may range from blocks and portions of neighborhoods, to the entire city…

The safe evacuation of threatened populations when endangered by a major catastrophic event is one of the principle reasons for developing a Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan. The thorough identification of at-risk populations, transportation and sheltering resources, evacuation routes and potential bottlenecks and choke points, and the establishment of the management team that will coordinate not only the evacuation but which will monitor and direct the sheltering and return of affected populations, are the primary tasks of evacuation planning. Due to the geography of New Orleans and the varying scales of potential disasters and their resulting emergency evacuations, different plans are in place for small-scale evacuations and for citywide relocations of whole populations.

Authority to issue evacuations of elements of the population is vested in the Mayor. By Executive Order, the chief elected official, the Mayor of the City of New Orleans, has the authority to order the evacuation of residents threatened by an approaching hurricane.

Evacuation procedures for special needs persons with either physical or mental handicaps, including registration of disabled persons, is covered in the SOP for Evacuation of Special Needs Persons.

Major population relocations resulting from an approaching hurricane or similar anticipated disaster, caused the City of New Orleans Office of Emergency Preparedness to develop a specific Hurricane Emergency Evacuation Standard Operating Procedures, which are appended to the Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan.

The SOP is developed to provide for an orderly and coordinated evacuation intended to minimize the hazardous effects of flooding, wind, and rain on the residents and visitors in New Orleans. The SOP provides for the evacuation of the public from danger areas and the designations of shelters for evacuees…

The Hurricane Emergency Evacuation Standard Operating Procedure is designed to deal with all case scenarios of an evacuation in response to the approach of a major hurricane towards New Orleans. It is designed to deal with the anticipation of a direct hit from a major hurricane. This includes identifying the city's present population, its projected population, identification of at-risk populations (those living outside levee protection or in storm-surge areas, floodplains, mobile homes, etc.), in order to understand the evacuation requirements. It includes identifying the transportation network, especially the carrying-capacity of proposed evacuation routes and existing or potential traffic bottlenecks or blockages, caused either by traffic congestion or natural occurrences such as rising waters. Identification of sheltering resources and the establishment of shelters and the training of shelter staff is important, as is the provision for food and other necessities to the sheltered. This preparation function is the responsibility of the Office of Emergency Preparedness.

Conduct of an actual evacuation will be the responsibility of the Mayor of New Orleans in coordination with the Director of the Office of Emergency Preparedness, and the OEP Shelter Coordinator…

The City of New Orleans will utilize all available resources to quickly and safely evacuate threatened areas. Those evacuated will be directed to temporary sheltering and feeding facilities as needed. When specific routes of progress are required, evacuees will be directed to those routes. Special arrangements will be made to evacuate persons unable to transport themselves or who require specific life saving assistance. Additional personnel will be recruited to assist in evacuation procedures as needed…

As established by the City of New Orleans Charter, the government has jurisdiction and responsibility in disaster response. City government shall coordinate its efforts through the Office of Emergency Preparedness..

The authority to order the evacuation of residents threatened by an approaching hurricane is conferred to the Governor by Louisiana Statute. The Governor is granted the power to direct and compel the evacuation of all or part of the population from a stricken or threatened area within the State, if he deems this action necessary for the preservation of life or other disaster mitigation, response or recovery. The same power to order an evacuation conferred upon the Governor is also delegated to each political subdivision of the State by Executive Order. This authority empowers the chief elected official of New Orleans, the Mayor of New Orleans, to order the evacuation of the parish residents threatened by an approaching hurricane…

Using information developed as part of the Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Task Force and other research, the City of New Orleans has established a maximum acceptable hurricane evacuation time standard for a Category 3 storm event of 72 hours. This is based on clearance time or is the time required to clear all vehicles evacuating in response to a hurricane situation from area roadways. Clearance time begins when the first evacuating vehicle enters the road network and ends when the last evacuating vehicle reaches its destination.

Clearance time also includes the time required by evacuees to secure their homes and prepare to leave (mobilization time); the time spent by evacuees traveling along the road network (travel time); and the time spent by evacuees waiting along the road network due to traffic congestion (delay time). Clearance time does not refer to the time a single vehicle spends traveling on the road network. Evacuation notices or orders will be issued during three stages prior to gale force winds making landfall.

> Precautionary Evacuation Notice: 72 hours or less

> Special Needs Evacuation Order: 8-12 hours after Precautionary Evacuation Notice issued

> General Evacuation Notice: 48 hours or less…

http://www.cityofno.com/portal.aspx?portal=46&tabid=26

You'll notice that nowhere in that plan is the primary responsibility for getting people out of harm's way or responding to victims conveyed to the federal government. Only at the very end of the plan does it even reference the federal government, saying that FEMA will be consulted if a Presidential Declaration of Disaster occurs. And, of course, it did occur--24 hours before the storm even made landfall.

For all of the federal government-bashing that is taking place, I believe in the end people will find that this was primarily a failure at the local/state level to get people out of harm's way, as prescribed for in the existing emergency management plans.

[x-y-no]

You'll notice that nowhere in that plan is the primary responsibility for getting people out of harm's way or responding to victims conveyed to the federal government. Only at the very end of the plan does it even reference the federal government, saying that FEMA will be consulted if a Presidential Declaration of Disaster occurs. And, of course, it did occur--24 hours before the storm even made landfall.

For all of the federal government-bashing that is taking place, I believe in the end people will find that this was primarily a failure at the local/state level to get people out of harm's way, as prescribed for in the existing emergency management plans.

I haven't been able to sort out in any detail just how much of this plan was implemented and how much wasn't, and what reasons (good or bad) there may have been for any deviations.

Frankly, I'm amazed at the certainty with which people are able to declare "it's all Nagin's fault" or "it's all Bush's fault" or "it's all Blanco's fault" - I think I see significant failures at all levels, local pre-landfall and state and federal post-landfall. But I don't know that with certainty. There may be reasons for decisions that at the moment appear bad to me.

You said in another thread that you're "sick and tired of people using this catastrophe to further their own political agenda." That's good and I agree. But with all due respect I think you need to guard a little mere carefully against that tendency in yourself. I hope you'll forgive me if I'm wrong, but in some areas you seem to be arguing ahead of the evidence just as some critics of the administration are.

In an ideal world, this event would recieve a thorough and independent review after the fact. In our current heavily polarized society, I don't know that either side will allow it.

[ncbird]

Here is a link to the index of plans. It also has the Federal Response Plan. Interesting reading....

http://www.ohsep.louisiana.gov/plans/plansindex.htm

[Mac]

You'll notice that nowhere in that plan is the primary responsibility for getting people out of harm's way or responding to victims conveyed to the federal government. Only at the very end of the plan does it even reference the federal government, saying that FEMA will be consulted if a Presidential Declaration of Disaster occurs. And, of course, it did occur--24 hours before the storm even made landfall.

For all of the federal government-bashing that is taking place, I believe in the end people will find that this was primarily a failure at the local/state level to get people out of harm's way, as prescribed for in the existing emergency management plans.

I haven't been able to sort out in any detail just how much of this plan was implemented and how much wasn't, and what reasons (good or bad) there may have been for any deviations.

Frankly, I'm amazed at the certainty with which people are able to declare "it's all Nagin's fault" or "it's all Bush's fault" or "it's all Blanco's fault" - I think I see significant failures at all levels, local pre-landfall and state and federal post-landfall. But I don't know that with certainty. There may be reasons for decisions that at the moment appear bad to me.

You said in another thread that you're "sick and tired of people using this catastrophe to further their own political agenda." That's good and I agree. But with all due respect I think you need to guard a little mere carefully against that tendency in yourself. I hope you'll forgive me if I'm wrong, but in some areas you seem to be arguing ahead of the evidence just as some critics of the administration are.

In an ideal world, this event would recieve a thorough and independent review after the fact. In our current heavily polarized society, I don't know that either side will allow it.

There's no need for foregiveness here, but I certainly do not have a political agenda. Quite frankly, I do not know whether Nagin is a Democrat, Republican, or Independent. My criticisms are of individual actions--or lack thereof. And I will admit that my criticisms are based upon what limited information is available. Only in time will all the facts come out. I am merely expressing my belief that this is primarily a failure on the local/state level. I also believe there have been failures on the federal level. But the failures I have thus far seen on a federal level are logistical failures, rather than failures of prescribed duties and moral obligations. In my mind, there is a vast difference between the two.

[MBismyPlayground]

Well, I hate playing the "blame game" but it seems like this is sitting on several sholders of elected officials within the state of LA. I would be interested to know what each Parish President and emergency management team emplemented at the time. So far on the city and state level, seems there were many guidlines not adhered to.
And then to add some icing to the cake, the Gov is refusing to allow the military to take over operations. She refuses to relinquish control. Accusing of strong arming by the President.
I disagree with her and her decision to refuse signing these papers. How many people are/were demanding to know WHERE ARE THE TROOPS??? How many people have been screaming about the looters and how they need troops on the ground to take care of them?? Yet, unless she signs these papers, the active soldiers hands are pretty much tied except or humanitarian relief!
In my opinion she has shown her lack of compentency by her first response......her lies on media television,(there is no shooting at the superdome?? BLATANT LIE) and now this refusal.
She seems more concerned about CONTROL then about saving lives that are still in jeopardy and ensuring the safety of these people.
Does she not realize that if she signed these papers, with the military in control, alot of the red tape goes away??????
I am not trying to be political as I know NOTHING about the politics of this state, nor do I care. This is about saving LIVES. lives that are dwindling away as I type.
I am so so disgusted. I watch her with her makeup all nice and pretty on TV and think of those people who for 7 days have been stuck in attics, with no water, food, nothing. And what does she do???

[themusk]

And this is the City of New Orleans' plan:

The City of New Orleans will utilize all available resources to quickly and safely evacuate threatened areas. Those evacuated will be directed to temporary sheltering and feeding facilities as needed. When specific routes of progress are required, evacuees will be directed to those routes. Special arrangements will be made to evacuate persons unable to transport themselves or who require specific life saving assistance. Additional personnel will be recruited to assist in evacuation procedures as needed.

And here's something appearing in the press, quoting someone I consider to be a very credible source (not that I put credit in the reporting, just the source), that, combined with the above, suggests that this plan was more vapor than substance:

Brian Wolshon, an engineering professor at Louisiana State University who served as a consultant on the state's evacuation plan, said little attention was paid to moving out New Orleans's "low-mobility" population - the elderly, the infirm and the poor without cars or other means of fleeing the city, about 100,000 people.

At disaster planning meetings, he said, "the answer was often silence."

Now to confirm this, and find out why no effort was made to actually implement the evacuation of those who could not evacuate themselves.

And, on the other hand, find out why the planning at the state and federal level did not consider the possibility that New Orleans would not be fully evacuated. After all, even if New Orleans had an optimal evacuation plan in place, it is possible for a hurricane to develop and move ashore in the Gulf too quickly for the city to have been fully evacuated. We knew at least 24 hours before this hurricane struck that the city would in fact not be fully evacuated in this instance.