NO Mayoral Race

[Audrey2Katrina]

Landrieu: 2nd behind Nagin in predominantely black precints, 2nd behind Forman in predominantly white precincts

That is true, but it was a distant second, I believe Nagin got something like 67% of their vote. Frankly I think it's going to be closer than people think, but we shall see.

A2K

[CajunMama]

It'll definately be a close race and an interesting one to watch.

[Audrey2Katrina]

It'll definately be a close race and an interesting one to watch.

I couldn't agree more, and I'd be willing to bet that a LOT more of the outside vote comes in for the runoff... another factor in the mix.

A2K

[CajunMama]

The absentee ballots haven't been fully counted yet have they? As of last night only 1/2 had been counted. Anyone know when they have to be finished?

[Dionne]

At 6AM this morning CNN was reporting that 72464 votes had been counted and 20,000 absentee votes had not yet been counted. Nagin is carrying 38% and Foreman 28%. The wording is ambigous, but it appears that Foreman in a late night speech conceded. Less than 10% of New Orleans pre-Katrina population voted.

[Audrey2Katrina]

At 6AM this morning CNN was reporting that 72464 votes had been counted and 20,000 absentee votes had not yet been counted. Nagin is carrying 38% and Foreman 28%. The wording is ambigous, but it appears that Foreman in a late night speech conceded. Less than 10% of New Orleans pre-Katrina population voted.

That's not possible at all. if 72,000 voted, and that represented 10% of the population, then New Orleans populations would have been twice what it was, if they were implying less than 10% of the VOTERS voted, the city would have the population of Houston--and it flat out doesn't. My best guesstimate is the city which had about 450,000 give or take about 20,000 total population pre-Katrina, of those about 210,000-250,000 were eligible voters as I assure you barely over half of that population constituted eligible voters. Do the math... 72,000 means roughly 33% of ALL pre-Katrina voters cast a ballot and considering that a HUGE portion of the population is still scattered all over kingdom-come, most pollsters here say that between 50 and 60% of those IN-city, eligible, voted. Still, that's a pretty pathetic turnout for such a crucial election, but sadly typical of a lot of the apathy around here. Well more than half the incumbents whom people were whining and complaining about either outright won, or are in the runoff--hence--little to no change, which was exactly the point of my earlier post--sad indeed! Now my guess is that IF it's true, that the 20,000 plus absentees were NOT counted, then you can expect Nagin's vote to go up dramatically--call it a gut instinct. As far as where a lot of the Foreman-Couhig vote will go, Landrieu better not count on it too much because in talking to quite a lot of them, they're not exactly thrilled with the options--a lot may balk at the runoff altogether. Like I said earlier, it's going to be very close!

A2K

[sunny]

Forman is throwing his support behind Landrieu!

[TSmith274]

I think the "low" turnout is more a function of just how many people don't plan on returning. But for a city, by most estimates, of 175,000 people these days, that turnout isn't bad. Ya gotta remember, of the 175,000 people here, thousands are not of age to vote. I'd think that of those living here who are elligible to vote, and those living elsewhere who are elligible to vote and plan on returning... turnout was high among those people. The low percentage is misleading in my opinion. Remember... voter rolls are based on the old 485,000 N.O. population and voter rolls. In my area of town, which was one of the only areas not flooded thank God... turnout was excellent. The poll workers estimated to me 80% plus where I live.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I think the "low" turnout is more a function of just how many people don't plan on returning. But for a city, by most estimates, of 175,000 people these days, that turnout isn't bad. Ya gotta remember, of the 175,000 people here, thousands are not of age to vote. I'd think that of those living here who are elligible to vote, and those living elsewhere who are elligible to vote and plan on returning... turnout was high among those people. The low percentage is misleading in my opinion. Remember... voter rolls are based on the old 485,000 N.O. population and voter rolls. In my area of town, which was one of the only areas not flooded thank God... turnout was excellent. The poll workers estimated to me 80% plus where I live.

That is interesting, TS; but numbers are one of those things that can be most deceiving. They were talking about this very point all afternoon on Garland Robinette's show on WWL, and all the pollsters to whom he spoke said the turnout, even among those IN and who COULD vote, was in the vicinity of 55-60%. Exceptionally good for a New Orleans vote, but well below what it should have been given the gravity of the situation. JMHO. I sincerely wish you luck. Right now I'm helping a nephew write a paper for a college class in which they're debating the pros and cons of saving the city--go figure.

A2K

[TSmith274]

the turnout, even among those IN and who COULD vote, was in the vicinity of 55-60%. Exceptionally good for a New Orleans vote, but well below what it should have been given the gravity of the situation.
A2K

Yeah you're right... that isn't good! That's disturbing. Nonetheless, give your nephew pro's only!!

[Dionne]

The 2000 census recorded 484674 as the population of New Orleans. With 72000 votes cast that represents 14.8%............possibly someone from the former Enron or WorldCom could make these numbers look different.

I have a sneaking suspicion that there are evacuees that have no intention of returning.

[Pearl River]

Last election, Nagin received approx. 85% of the white vote. Big difference between then and now. Also, there were several evacuees who stated they were going to vote but had no intention of returning.

[Audrey2Katrina]

The 2000 census recorded 484674 as the population of New Orleans. With 72000 votes cast that represents 14.8%............possibly someone from the former Enron or WorldCom could make these numbers look different.

I have a sneaking suspicion that there are evacuees that have no intention of returning.

Undoubtedly; but recall that you're figuring 14.8 % of the total population, which includes those not registered to vote, and underage. It is estimated that the city had around 250,000 actual registered voters, and the total votes cast from what I'd seen was just over 100,000. That's between 40 and 50 % of the voters IF all of those elligibles are counted... bear in mind massive numbers had left the city--the estimates are there were only 150-170,000 in the city the time of the election: men, women, and children, which would make the 50-60% seem a reasonable estimated. And I agree with you on the evacuees who will not return, and will be voting.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Last election, Nagin received approx. 85% of the white vote. Big difference between then and now. Also, there were several evacuees who stated they were going to vote but had no intention of returning.

That's true; but a LOT of those who voted have disdain for Landriue; and while a lot of Foreman's vote will probably go to Mitch, I feel a lot of Couhigs may swing to Nagin... could be wrong; but that's the pulse I feel.

A2K

[TSmith274]

Yeah I was a Couhig voter, and at one time... a huge supporter of Nagin's. I even worked for his campaign last time. Many ask me, "well, so ya didn't like the chocolate city comments then, did you?". The answer of course is no I didn't, but I don't think Ray Nagin is racist, and I wasn't bothered by the chocolate part. What I was bothered by was the impression this gave that our mayor is unstable, and possibly couldn't be trusted with billions in reconstruction dollars. That feeling, I can understand. And it's the nationwide perception that we cannot afford at a time when we still need so much help. So, it's still not a racial thing with me... it's a thing about the man's judgement. For that reason, I have to vote for Landrieu, because if there's one thing this man is not... it's unstable. He's a polished man, well spoken, who will articulate our problems down here very well IMO... not just for New Orleans, but I feel that he'll be an asset to the Mississippi gulf coast as well.

[T'Bonz]

I have to phrase this differently, I guess, having got smacked last time for my sentiments.

What on earth would possess people to vote for someone who has proven himself to be incompetent (same goes for the governor of Louisiana, but she's not up for reelection).

I guarantee you, if we had been hit like New Orleans had been and Jeb Bush had acted as poorly as both Nagin and Blanco, I'd have been first in line to vote him out. Heck, I've have actively signed up people to vote against him.

[TSmith274]

T'Bonz, I agree. Nagin is done. And on the 22nd of May, I'll be there again, first in line to vote him OUT. He's done, just wait till the 22nd.

And Blanco, she's even more done. I don't know a single person who would vote for her. She's done a horrible job... both with the hurricane and numerous other things. So, I'll be first in line then too. Both will be GONE I say... GONE. Just a matter of time.

[HurryKane]

Pssst...the runoff is on the 20th of May. Don't want you to be late

[TSmith274]

Pssst...the runoff is on the 20th of May. Don't want you to be late

LOL yeah you're right! Yep, the 20th. Thanks.

[Pearl River]

What on earth would possess people to vote for someone who has proven himself to be incompetent (same goes for the governor of Louisiana, but she's not up for reelection).

The same kind of people who said they would vote for Edwin Edwards even if he was in jail or the women who said they only voted for him because he was "sexy". Lack of "Common Sense".