"No Need to Evac" From Em Mgmt New Orleans

[wxman57]

You might glance at the newest models. Only the shallow BAM, the NHC, and the ETA are east of southeast LA. All other guidance is zeroed in on southeast LA. Looking much more likely that Katrina will make landfall in SE LA. Possibly New Orleans, possibly even west of New Orleans. Could well be a Cat 4 at landfall. ETA on the coast south of New Orleans between sunrise and noon Monday.

If it takes 48 hours to evacuate the area, then tomorrow will be evacuation day. NHC will almost certainly go with an NHC direct hit on their next advisory. They have no choice. Tens of thousands of people could be killed in New Orleans if they don't get out tomorrow.

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png">

[BamaMan]

I know we over here do not want to see a landfall east of NOLA, especially anywhere from the LA/MS line eastward

[jasons2k]

Yeah and I agree.

But duris, guess what? I just went and purchased the super large bag of Pelican Ice and a 12 pack of Abita. If I pound more than 4 - likely with the Saints replay on tonight at midnight (trying to keep my eyes and ears away from the tv & radio), then I'll be back for another 12er tomorrow.

This is bizarre. I usually get super hyped about storms knowing they'll usually turn away at some point. But I kind of just have a dull feeling about Katrina. Maybe it's the uncertainty or the over-the-top model shift and continued south of west movement? I thought I had it reasonably figured out on Wed. with a NW FL hit. And that might still be right. Or it might be way off. Katrina seems to be one of those systems that's just going to do what she wants to do (emphasis on she). And no matter what the synoptic setup is or what the models said at point "x", she's going to throw a whimsical curveball or two along the way. The thing that bothers me the most is the potential all of us Gulf Coasters are facing with this system. If Bastardi & Stewart are on and a Cat 4 threat is looming, I don't think anyone outside of Honduras or Homestead, FL can even relate. I know I'm feeling something because I'm smoking like a freaking smokestack tonight.

Steve

Hey Steve,
I feel it too man and I'm not even in the cone. Normally when a system is in the gulf I have the adrenaline frenzy. Today I've just had this dreadful, almost depressed feeling. I've never felt this way about a storm myself and I can't quite pinpoint it.

I hope you make out OK man. This is going to be bad for somebeody, and not to wish ill on anyone else, but I hope it's not you. The NO setup is a disaster worse than most of us can comprehend.

[greeng13]

damn! they are just all zeroing in on that area!

[cjrciadt]

Holy.........

[canegrl04]

Looks like some folks better get on the ball tomorrow in LA about issuing hurricane advisories and warnings lest they be sued after Katrina roars in

[Brent]

There is going to be serious problems if officials don't get on the ball first thing tomorrow... what I'm worried about is tomorrow is Saturday... kinda reminds me of Andrew which also came in on a Monday.

[flightpath]

I will be very alert for awhile, but then go to bed early
tomorrow looks like a long day of prep for me here
don't like those models at all

[duris]

But duris, guess what? I just went and purchased the super large bag of Pelican Ice and a 12 pack of Abita. If I pound more than 4 - likely with the Saints replay on tonight at midnight (trying to keep my eyes and ears away from the tv & radio), then I'll be back for another 12er tomorrow.

I'm kinda the same way. I'm not blase and will board tomorrow, but its kinda like, what are you gonna do? I just regret that I went to Sav-A-Center and bought no Abita. Got some liquor bottles calling my name though. Not after tonight unless things change, but definitely tonight.

[duris]

Looks like some folks better get on the ball tomorrow in LA about issuing hurricane advisories and warnings lest they be sued after Katrina roars in

At the risk of inviting let's kill all the lawyers jokes, I just hope I have an office left to sue from (or usually defend from).

[storms in NC]

Don't the NHC do fairly well in the 3 day forcast?

[flightpath]

Don't the NHC do fairly well in the 3 day forcast?

I'm hoping they do this time!

[wxman57]

Don't the NHC do fairly well in the 3 day forcast?

I'm hoping they do this time!

Better not hope that too much, as I'm about 100% certain the next NHC track will move Katrina right over New Orleans. Read this part of the 4pm NHC discussion:

THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WESTWARD
AND ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK BEING SHIFTED ABOUT 150 NMI WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...
PROJECTED LANDFALL IS STILL ABOUT 72 HOURS AWAY...SO FURTHER
MODIFICATIONS IN THE FORECAST TRACK ARE POSSIBLE.

What they're saying, really, is that they don't really think Katrina will hit where they're forecasting, they just didn't want to move the track all the way to New Orleans at one time.

[Brent]

I hope they don't just for the country's sake... a direct hit on New Orleans would be far worse than 9/11.

[huricanwatcher]

I hope they don't just for the country's sake... a direct hit on New Orleans would be far worse than 9/11.

FAR WORSE? ..... a natural disaster compared to a terrorist attack... ya it will be bad, but no comparison ....... PLEASE........

[Brent]

I hope they don't just for the country's sake... a direct hit on New Orleans would be far worse than 9/11.

FAR WORSE? ..... a natural disaster compared to a terrorist attack... ya it will be bad, but no comparison ....... PLEASE........

Economic impact perhaps?

[wxman57]

I hope they don't just for the country's sake... a direct hit on New Orleans would be far worse than 9/11.

I've heard experts speak on the worst-case scenario for New Orleans. About 60% to 70% of the 1 milllion people evacuate before the storm hits. Of the 300 to 400,000 people remaining, about 25% drown. Could be upward of 80,000 people dead in New Orleans if the levees are topped and the city goes under 20-30 feet of water in a few minutes.

Once flooded, it may take 2-3 months to pump the water back out. Even then, the city will be uninhabitable until every building/home is inspected and power can be restored. There may be no point in rebuilding.

[Brent]

I hope they don't just for the country's sake... a direct hit on New Orleans would be far worse than 9/11.

I've heard experts speak on the worst-case scenario for New Orleans. About 60% to 70% of the 1 milllion people evacuate before the storm hits. Of the 300 to 400,000 people remaining, about 25% drown. Could be upward of 80,000 people dead in New Orleans if the levees are topped and the city goes under 20-30 feet of water in a few minutes.

That was my point... 3,000 dead on 9/11.

[dhweather]

I hope they don't just for the country's sake... a direct hit on New Orleans would be far worse than 9/11.

FAR WORSE? ..... a natural disaster compared to a terrorist attack... ya it will be bad, but no comparison ....... PLEASE........

Economic impact perhaps?

It's hard to comprehend it, but you're probably right Brent.

If cat cat 4/5 slams NOLA, we'll have damage not just to the city, but to
ciritcal national infrastucture (oil, natural gas) that will be beyond insane.
9/11 was terrible, but if this happens, it will be too.

[huricanwatcher]

I hope they don't just for the country's sake... a direct hit on New Orleans would be far worse than 9/11.

FAR WORSE? ..... a natural disaster compared to a terrorist attack... ya it will be bad, but no comparison ....... PLEASE........

Economic impact perhaps?

It's hard to comprehend it, but you're probably right Brent.

If cat cat 4/5 slams NOLA, we'll have damage not just to the city, but to
ciritcal national infrastucture (oil, natural gas) that will be beyond insane.
9/11 was terrible, but if this happens, it will be too.

sorry my heart was talking above my head....... you are exactly right.....