My fear for Houston

[vbhoutex]

By far the biggest problem is educating the general public as to what they do and don't need to do in certain evacuation situations. We are not the general public by any stretch of the imagination. We all know way more than 99.99% of the general public out there when it comes to tropcial threats and the dangers they pose to us. Most of the general public hears "monster storm", panics and literally runs for the hills. I understand that mentality, but of course do not agree with it. At a minimum there needs to be a media wide educational effort prior to each Hurricane season that tells the general public, what to expect in tropcial situations in this area, at each level of intensity and how and when evacs should be handled. This could help the problem immensely. There were miscues, etc. between officials, but all of that is already being worked on/addressed and hopefully will not cause some of the problems that we had this time. JMHO. Most definitely it would be best if there was a way to force the planned staged evacuations to work, but as stated, we can't chain people to their homes in areas that don't "need" to evacuate.

My biggest concern is now that those in mandatory evac zones will not evac just because of what happened with Rita and that could lead to massive loss of life in a real need situation.

[Galvestongirl]

those in mandatory evac zones will not evac just because of what happened with Rita and that could lead to massive loss of life in a real need situation.

This is so true, everyone I have spoken to will not leave, myself included. My house will withstand the winds, however, I have 2 very large trees that are close to the house, thus, I left. those trees are comming down and for the next one I am staying. I am 25 miles north of Galveston and have not ever evacuated for any storm except this one. My father who lives down the road evacuated one time years ago, at that time he said he would never evac. again, and did not for this storm. So, again, I think we are going to have a real BIG problem because people are going to stay.

[stormie_skies]

I agree with you both - I know quite a few people who have also sworn to stay through anything after what they experienced last week. And the sad thing is that the people who got the worst of it traffic-wise are the people who really NEEDED to leave - the people in Galveston and the far south and southeast metro. Storm surge isn't a guessing game - its not like playing the lotto. If there is a big storm coming, it IS going to happen, your house WILL flood, and you WILL drown if you don't have higher ground to run to. So these people who are giving up aren't even really taking their chances - they are dooming themselves if the storm doesn't swerve like Rita did this time. Thats why it is SO important that we find a way to get these people out and out early...

How to do it? Really, I don't know. I hope there will be a ton of research done and meetings upon meetings held to figure out just that. Someone mentioned something in another thread about restricting initial access to the contraflow lanes to people with an ID from a mandatory evac area - that might be a place to start. Cities, counties and municipalities could do a better job staggering evac orders, withholding voluntary evac orders from inland areas until coastal areas have had the chance to clear out (this would allow employers the opportunity to pressure their employees to stay put). Companies could be pro-active in identifying employees who live in mandatory evac zones and be a bit more lenient with them, giving them an extra day to hit the road the next time something like this occurs.
And we need to educate people, like vbhoutex said.... knowledge goes a long way when it comes to tropical systems, and people who are well prepared and understand what may or may not happen will be more likely to hunker down instead of running away hysterically. In the end, its going to take some understand from everyone, I am sure .... but its gotta be done, and the sooner, the better IMO.

[GalvestonDuck]

Next storm that comes my way, I'm staying put.

[Roxy]

Just foudn out someone who died on the side of the road worked here in my building.

So sad.

[susan]

I don't know how we can correct this problem but many people I work with in the Kemah area and friends and family who sat on 45 for 10 hours before they even made it into Houston would rather take on the storm surge than to do that again. That speaks volumes.

[Hou~TX~Mama]

It took us 12 hrs. to get to Cypress (not our intended destination). We were out of gas but luckily near my cousin's house, so we went there and spent the night. The next morning we siphoned gas out of my cousin's truck, then went on to San Antonio.
Had it not been for my kid, who is freaked out by storms, I would have turned around and gone back home. AT one point we had only gone 5 miles in 6 hrs.
I'm not sure I'll go through that again.

[jasons2k]

I just can't understand the rationale of people who live in a surge zone now saying they will stay.

One day of misery on the highway vs. certain death. Hmmm, seems straightforward to me.

[GalvestonDuck]

I just can't understand the rationale of people who live in a surge zone now saying they will stay.

One day of misery on the highway vs. certain death. Hmmm, seems straightforward to me.

Please note the "April Fools" emoticon on my reply.

My momma didn't raise no fool. My tailfeathers will fly north for a hurricane, even if it means going through the same traffic mess all over again.

[jasons2k]

I just can't understand the rationale of people who live in a surge zone now saying they will stay.

One day of misery on the highway vs. certain death. Hmmm, seems straightforward to me.

Please note the "April Fools" emoticon on my reply.

My momma didn't raise no fool. My tailfeathers will fly north for a hurricane, even if it means going through the same traffic mess all over again.

Hey Duckie, not directed @ you

[GalvestonDuck]

Okey dokey...just making sure.

[Hou~TX~Mama]

Hey Duckie, not directed @ you

So who's it directed at?
How long did YOU sit in traffic from your evacuation from SPRING?

[jasons2k]

Hey Duckie, not directed @ you

So who's it directed at?
How long did YOU sit in traffic from your evacuation from SPRING?

Took me 3 hours to get from 610 to the Riley Fuzzel exit on the Hardy coming home from work - 4 1/2 hours total from Uptown.

Took my best friend from 1:30 PM to get from Pirate's Beach on Galveston until 3:30 AM to get to my house.

Took my wife's best friend 5 hours to go 2 miles down Rayford to I-45 then to 242 before she finally got off the freeway and took an alternate route. From there she made it to Dallas in 4.5 hours by following my directions.

Took my cousin 5.5 hours to get from Crosby to my house.

Once the cars stacked-up on Rayford Tuesday night, I could not leave my neighborhood again until Friday for anything. We were completely blocked-in.

Incidentally every one of them said they would do it again if they had to, even my buddy from Galveston who has a wife and 4 kids.

To answer your question on who it's directed at, well anyone who lives in a surge zone that now says they won't leave. There are some in this thread and a few others from the last few days with Galveston County addresses that have said they won't leave again. That's suicidal IMO. And YES I am passionate about that - it is a matter of life or death.

[GalvestonDuck]

I think part of the problem was I-45. We left it shortly after exit 14 and I don't think we ever got back on. Having a map and taking backroads (any residential street, farm road, or even two-lane highway heading north) made it easier. There were moments where we didn't move, but for the most part, we were getting somewhere. We calculated 313 miles in 15 hours equals a little better than 25 mph average.

[Weatherfreak14]

What houston needs is a better evacuation plan IMO.

[jasons2k]

What houston needs is a better evacuation plan IMO.

More specifically, TEXAS needs a better evac. plan. Houston and Galveston has one of the best plans around. But you can't control a bottleneck 100 miles up the freeway. They are already working on these issues so they do not happen next time.

Despite the gridlock, there are a number of positives people gloss over. Galveston was empty. Anyone who needed assistance off the island got it and they were off the island on Thursday. People who were standed on the road got assistance and they brought in an armada of fuel trucks to get people moving again.

By Friday AM virtually every road leading out of town was deserted, a full 16-18 hours before landfall. From a pure numbers standpoint, it was probably the most successful evacuation in US History. That feat alone is simply remarkable.

[Stellar Storm]

Hello. I'm new here and would like to say a piece about evacuating. I live in Conroe, TX and I kept close tabs on Rita. I live in a wooden structure home built back in the 40's. It's one strong house built with lumber that is actually 1" thick and 12" wide. If my house ever fell, I would never get to rebuild it with lumber like that again. However, it sits on a hill and one side is too high off the ground for my comfort during a hurricane, so we chose to go down to a friend's brick house. I polled everyone I knew in Conroe, and NO ONE I knew left the area. What really concerned me is that my child's friend lives in a mobile home and they chose to stay there! My question is, if Rita had hit the Galveston/Houston area, would Conroe still be too close to ride it out in a mobile home, or am I too overly cautious? It was listed as a "pass through" county (you had to go further North for shelter.)

[jasons2k]

Hello. I'm new here and would like to say a piece about evacuating. I live in Conroe, TX and I kept close tabs on Rita. I live in a wooden structure home built back in the 40's. It's one strong house built with lumber that is actually 1" thick and 12" wide. If my house ever fell, I would never get to rebuild it with lumber like that again. However, it sits on a hill and one side is too high off the ground for my comfort during a hurricane, so we chose to go down to a friend's brick house. I polled everyone I knew in Conroe, and NO ONE I knew left the area. What really concerned me is that my child's friend lives in a mobile home and they chose to stay there! My question is, if Rita had hit the Galveston/Houston area, would Conroe still be too close to ride it out in a mobile home, or am I too overly cautious? It was listed as a "pass through" county (you had to go further North for shelter.)

FWIW they had a mandatory evacuation order in effect for ALL of Liberty County which is inland like Montgomery County due to winds.

They were encouraging anyone in mobile homes to leave, regardless of the surge maps. A well built, strapped-down mobile home might withstand a Cat. 1, but that's even pushing the envelope. Also, any mobile home will collapse if a tree falls on it.

If Rita had hit Galveston as a Cat 4. and weakened to a Cat 2. by Conroe, bye-bye mobile homes.

[wxman57]

Very true, but we are only leaving if its a 4/5. If it is a 1/2/3. Then we are going to friends house 20 feet above sea level and ridin her out.

A question -- since you'll have to evacuate 2-3 days before the hurricane hits, how are you going to be able to tell that today's strong TS or Cat 1 won't be tomorrow's or the next day's Cat 5? We just can't predict intensity well 2-3 days out when you'll have to make that decision. So if you're in a surge zone (as you are), then you'll need to go even with a strong TS 2-3 days out. If you wait until the day it hits to make your decision to evacuate when it strengthens to that Cat 3-4-5 then you'll be dead.

And also, a cat 5 could be downgraded to a 3 - but as has been proven with Ivan, Katrina, and Rita, the huge surge seems to maintain it's levels all the way to landfall. In this scenario, being only 20 feet above MSL may not be enough - even if it is "only" a cat 3.

Correct. but if its like a Alicia. Then we will ride her out. But if its in the gulf and its a rita/Katrina we will leave asap.

You're missing my point, Hiksta. I'm saying that your decision whether to evacuate or not will have to be made 2-3 days BEFORE you know how intense a hurricane will be at landfall. Sure, there will be an NHC forecast of landfall intensity. However, such intensity forecasts are typically off by 1 category per day. So a Cat 1 prediction 72 hours out, when you need to decide, could turn out to be a Cat 3 or Cat 4 at landfall.

Bottom line is that your home in Kemah is in a surge zone and you need to be ready to leave if ANY hurricane is within 72 hours of landfall near Galveston Bay.

[GalvestonDuck]

Mod's note: Moving this to the aftermath forum since...well, we're in the aftermath phase now.