"No Need to Evac" From Em Mgmt New Orleans

[micktooth]

Just heard Walter Maestri, the em. mgmt. director for Jefferson Parish say there is no need at this time to consider evacuation. This is the same guy who freaks out on any storm in the Gulf. Usually, there is an overreaction. I'm just afraid tomorrow the stuff will hit the fan really hard and the call will go out to get the he** out of here. I think the lack of official info on this one is pathetic. Maybe Dennis just got them a little gun shy.

[sunny]

NOW I'm really afraid

[Brent]

WHAT????

[superfly]

He is correct. I know I'm not moving an inch.

[Anonymous]

Hmm...real nice decision. Maybe they should spend the money needed to evacuate to buy a hell of a lotta body bags. I got a bad feeling about this one...I wouldn't risk it.

[jkt21787]

He is correct. I know I'm not moving an inch.

I wish I had your confidence for your city.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree Floydbuster

[PTrackerLA]

That's a mightly bold statement and I think it will come back to bite him. I was out of the country for Dennis so I don't know if it was ever forecasted to come this close to New Orleans but they MUST alert NOLA residents tonight about the new track shift and the danger that Katrina poses. Have fun trying to get out of New Orleans late Saturday/Sunday if the current models materialize...absolute gridlock.

[Praxus]

Bah body bags ! Just hand out life jackets !

[Shoshana]

Kinda scary. I know that when I spoke to the nephew in NO earlier today, he was still under the impression that Katrina would be a non event for NO. He hadn't even seen any info since last night sometime.

I told him if nothing else - put gas in the car and get stuff ready ...

[JTD]

Governor of LA was just on CNN and said that there's no need to worry. They are expecting tropical storm force winds at most in LA

[sunny]

I just watched the update on TWC. They have moved the cone even more West and it looks like NO is almost in the center of it.

[BigO]

THe local mets aren't so cock-sure:

MAJOR SHIFT IN THE MODELS

SE LA THREAT INCREASING RAPIDLY

LANDFALL POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM SE LA TO W. FL PANHANDLE

BEGIN TO TAKE HURRICANE PRECAUTIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW

KATRINA LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF COAST

HURRICANE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR US LATE SATURDAY

WARNINGS MAY FOLLOW FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST SUNDAY

Over the past 12-24 hours we have witnessed an unprecedented swing in the computer models. I don’t believe I have ever seen anything like this before. Model consensus is now clustered on south Mississippi for what could be a major category 4-5 hurricane. The official forecast track from NHC has just seen one of the most dramatic shifts I ever recall. They now bring Katrina into the Pascagoula/Biloxi area as a major category 4 storm. This is consistent with the consensus of the early 18Z model guidance I am looking at.

Now I usually don’t put much stock in one or two model runs swinging dramatically, but we are looking at overwhelming evidence this storm could come too close for comfort or perhaps closer. With NHC’s current track, the threat to Mobile and the MS coast would be highest, but there would still be a considerable threat to New Orleans if it stuck to that exact path.

Of course we know that it will most likely not stay on that path. In fact, there will be several adjustments. Most disturbing to me is that NHC’s forecast track is on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. This means the computers believe (for now) the storm will come further west. I highly suspect that in the next few model runs we will see the tendency for the models to shift back to the east a bit and I believe NHC is sensing this as well and that is why they have went on the eastern side of the model consensus which seems to be pointing more toward the mouth of the PEARL River.

Keep in mind, during Ivan we saw some model swings that came our way but nothing as dramatic and consistent as this.

What will be most critical to New Orleans will be the timing of the turn to the NW and eventually to the N. This storm is going to turn as a strong trough sweeps into the Midwest and erodes away the upper high that is over us now. The timing of this process is critical to the final forecast track and the models have decided to time this process slower, thus the westerly shift.

Please be advised the timing on this could change again and we could certainly see another shift in the models. Landfall will not occur until Monday, so there will be a lot of track changes between now and then.

I must also point out it is beyond the scope of the science to know where the exact landfall point will be this early. But it is becoming increasingly likely a major hurricane will plow into the Gulf coast somewhere between here and the western FL panhandle early next week. Intensity would be the big wildcard – and there is a lot of uncertainty about that. Any intrusion of dry air or other unseen factors could cause the storm to be weaker than expected. But the models are all pointing to a major hurricane.

So what should you do now? I would begin making plans and preparations for the possible arrival of a major storm at this point. There is no way to tell if we will see a direct impact as of now, but it can not hurt to be prepared.

Tomorrow may certainly bring more dramatic changes to the track, but I think the trends of the past 12 hours speak for themselves. This is not to say you should panic or get all worked up. Things change with the weather. But be smart, level-headed and calm.

New data is constantly coming in and I will be looking at it and will post as much as I possibly can. One thing is for certain – we will likely see more changes to the track. Whether or not is will be a change for the good or bad remains to be seen.

In the meantime I suggest you get away from your computer (the webmaster will kill me for this, but I am being honest), start thinking about what you may do to prepare, enjoy your Friday night as best you can, and start your preparations in earnest early tomorrow. According to NHC we have about 72 hours before this thing makes landfall, sometime early Monday afternoon. Let’s just hope it’s somewhere far from us.

John
_________________
John Gumm
Morning Meteorologist

Thanks to the good folks here, I was expecting it. Nobody else in town seems to.

[greeng13]

Governor of LA was just on CNN and said that there's no need to worry. They are expecting tropical storm force winds at most in LA

does he have several 747's full of that DYNO-MAT (I think that's what it is called) stuff that they used on Ivan?

[BigO]

He is a she and there are a lot of us that have been less than satisfied with her performance thus far. This doesn't make me any more confident in our safety at this point.

<edit>I don't want to get political here, either...just to say that word from the Governess doesn't make me feel any safer.

[Mattie]

If you can go back to the archives for Camille, this is very much like the scenario that happened before Camille. I think the reports are all in text files and I had them at one time, but have had a computer crash since then. Someone posted earlier that the shape of Katrina is eerily similar to Camille as well.

I'm not one to compare storms for the most part, and think that what happened to them will happen again. I am just simply noting the uncertainty in landfall this close (3 days) with modern technology is ironic. With Camille, we left South Louisiana because it was forecast to go up the Mississippi River and found ourselves in the middle of it all in Gulfport.

So, very vivd memories and an easy correlation for me anyway.

[greeng13]

He is a she and there are a lot of us that have been less than satisfied with her performance thus far. This doesn't make me any more confident.

oops! i guess i put my foot in my mouth on that one (or the spacebar up my...well you know). i love NO great town. have a few friends there too. sailed on lake ponchetrain (sp?) when i was younger. i'd definitely get the car gassed up (and probably some extra gas tanks too by the sounds of your evacuation times)

[PTrackerLA]

Governor of LA was just on CNN and said that there's no need to worry. They are expecting tropical storm force winds at most in LA

That makes me ever more concerned, she's pretty clueless in general IMO but let's just not go there...

[hicksta]

Governor of LA was just on CNN and said that there's no need to worry. They are expecting tropical storm force winds at most in LA

That makes me ever more concerned, she's pretty clueless in general IMO but let's just not go there...

LOL

[Steve H.]

18Z GFS in to hour 96 and has a powerful storm coming in west of New Orleans. Globals don't show extremely low pressures on the maps, so that considered, could be strong cat 4.