What would have happened if Katrina hit just west of N.O.?

[logybogy]

Imagine instead of the slight east wobble we saw there was a slight west bobble and the right front quadrant of the storm went over N.O.

Obviously, the wind damage would have been much more severe, but would the flooding have been as bad from Lake Poncatrain or much more on the west bank and Mississippi River?

[Huckster]

No matter what, a hurricane disaster was just waiting to happen down there. I'm not an expert on storm surge, but I know Betsy passed west of New Orleans but still did significant wind damage there and caused quite a bit of flooding, especially in St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes. That was almost 40 years ago. I'm sure if Katrina had passed just a little farther west, there would have still been devasting flooding, it just might have been in a different place. LA has lost a huge amount of land in the last 40 years, and I suspect Katrina has done unimaginable damage to our fragile coast. It seems like every time the wind blows hard and tides rise from a TS, we lose land even more quickly. I hate to think how much of the coastal restoration efforts/projects have been brought back to where they were before Katrina or even worse than that.

[wxman57]

People forget that Betsy moved in quite a bit west of New Orleans - between Baton Rouge and Lafayette, in fact. Take a look at this wind analysis chart from the Hurricane Research Division. Most of New Orleans saw Category 1 winds with Katrina. That's why there were not as many structural failures, and the levees survived initially. If Katrina had tracked about 30-40 miles to the west, then the winds in New Orleans would have been nearly twice the speeds observed, or about 4 times the force. The main levees would likely have failed, and all those people who made it to the Superdome may have died.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... ll_mph.pdf

[f5]

If Katrina's NE eyewall would of hit NO those Refugees would become casualties making Katrina the Deadliest Hurricane of all time not just in American history but WORLD HISTORY!

[wxmann_91]

If Katrina's NE eyewall would of hit NO those Refugees would become casualties making Katrina the Deadliest Hurricane of all time not just in American history but WORLD HISTORY!

So you mean to say that the number of people who didn't evacuate New Orleans was over 500,000, because the Bhola cyclone in Bangladesh in 1970 I think was the deadliest, killing that many?

[LSU2001]

OMG 500,000 from one cyclone. That is almost unbelievable. I thank god that at least our warning systems avoid that kind of loss of life.
TIm

[f5]

from what i'm hearing there were at least 250,000 that did not evacuate which is bad enough.

[Stephanie]

Just considering the storm surge that the folks in MS received since they were in the NE quadrant, it would make me believe that they would've had the same storm surge PLUS the wind damage. I am correct in assuming this?

[vbhoutex]

Just considering the storm surge that the folks in MS received since they were in the NE quadrant, it would make me believe that they would've had the same storm surge PLUS the wind damage. I am correct in assuming this?

Quite correct! Even though what has happened and is happening is horrendous beyond belief if Katrina had tracked 15-30 miles West it would have been much worse and would have happened right away during the storm(levee breaks or overtopping)instead of just after. Basically there probably would have been very few survivors. I think the 9th ward id happen during the storm but I can't remember.

[Derek Ortt]

I believ ethe 9th ward was during the storm once the northerly winds sent the lake through the Levee

[Recurve]

From the studies and stories over the years, I believe St. Bernard and the Ninth Ward were vulnerable to winds driving surge from the south, east, or north, the Lakefront more to north winds. St. Bernard's hurricane levee was probably overtopped during the surge, the loss of the wetlands to the south making it more vulnerable. Plaquemines was vulnerable from the south and east.

[wxmann_91]

I believ ethe 9th ward was during the storm once the northerly winds sent the lake through the Levee

You are not mistaken.

LAC071-087-291915-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
814 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW ORLEANS
ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHALMETTE

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* A LEVEE BREACH OCCURRED ALONG THE INDUSTRIAL CANAL AT TENNESSE
STREET. 3 TO 8 FEET OF WATER IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE BREACH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ARABI AND
9TH WARD OF NEW ORLEANS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 2992 9012 2994 9003 2987 8987 3001 8985
3004 8982 3008 8993 3002 9012

$$

[superfly]

Just considering the storm surge that the folks in MS received since they were in the NE quadrant, it would make me believe that they would've had the same storm surge PLUS the wind damage. I am correct in assuming this?

Quite correct! Even though what has happened and is happening is horrendous beyond belief if Katrina had tracked 15-30 miles West it would have been much worse and would have happened right away during the storm(levee breaks or overtopping)instead of just after. Basically there probably would have been very few survivors. I think the 9th ward id happen during the storm but I can't remember.

Wrong, New Orleans is nowhere near the southern coastline of LA. The potential of flooding from levee breaks along the river is far less than the flooding we have seen from a break along the lakefront.