Local and State Officials Knew; Warned Citizens

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Mac

Local and State Officials Knew; Warned Citizens

#1 Postby Mac » Tue Sep 06, 2005 2:50 am

Check out this story that ran in the N.O. paper on July 24, and the PSA that was being distributed by local officials and the Red Cross.

No plan ever made to help New Orleans' most vulnerable

By LEONARD WITT
Published on: 09/01/05
Each time you hear a federal, state or city official explain what he or she is doing to help New Orleans, consider the opening paragraphs of a July 24 story in the New Orleans Times-Picayune.

"City, state and federal emergency officials are preparing to give the poorest of New Orleans' poor a historically blunt message: In the event of a major hurricane, you're on your own."

"In scripted appearances being recorded now, officials such as Mayor Ray Nagin, local Red Cross Executive Director Kay Wilkins and City Council President Oliver Thomas drive home the word that the city does not have the resources to move out of harm's way an estimated 134,000 people without transportation."

The officials made those statements fully knowing that those 134,000 people were very likely to end up in dire circumstances or even die.

Here is what National Geographic magazine wrote in an article published in October 2004 about a possible hurricane scenario for New Orleans:

"The Federal Emergency Management Agency lists a hurricane strike on New Orleans as one of the most dire threats to the nation, up there with a large earthquake in California or a terrorist attack on New York City. Even the Red Cross no longer opens hurricane shelters in the city, claiming the risk to its workers is too great."

In that article National Geographic predicted with eerie accuracy that more than a million people would evacuate, but some 200,000 would remain, including "the carless, the homeless, the aged and infirm."

The New Orleans Times-Picayune ran its own series in 2002 in which it wrote:

"If enough water from Lake Pont-chartrain topped the levee system along its south shore, the result would be apocalyptic. Whoever remained in the city would be at grave risk. According to the American Red Cross, a likely death toll would be between 25,000 and 100,000 people, dwarfing estimated death tolls for other natural disasters and all but the most nightmarish potential terrorist attacks. Tens of thousands more would be stranded on rooftops and high ground, awaiting rescue that could take days or longer. They would face thirst, hunger and exposure to toxic chemicals."

And yet apparently there was no emergency plan and no resources to evacuate "the carless, the homeless, the aged and infirm."

In this era when we are a nation at risk of terrorism and natural disasters, we can only hope that what is happening in New Orleans is not built into the fabric of our national homeland security policy. We should provide security for everyone, including the poor, aged and infirm.

We have the resources. On Wednesday, it seems FEMA found 475 buses to help with the belated evacuation effort. Unfortunately, when it comes to looking after the carless, homeless, the aged and infirm in our country, we — in our quest to become an ownership society — seemed to have allowed our good senses, good will and compassion to go on vacation.


— Leonard Witt is the Robert D. Fowler Distinguished Chair in Communication at Kennesaw State University.

http://www.ajc.com/opinion/content/opinion/0905/01edwitt.html


I find it rather interesting, given that the Times-Picayune ran an article in July of this year informing the public that they were "on their own" in the event of a major hurricane, that they would run this just days ago:

We’re angry, Mr. President, and we’ll be angry long after our beloved city and surrounding parishes have been pumped dry. Our people deserved rescuing. Many who could have been were not. That’s to the government’s shame.

Mayor Ray Nagin did the right thing Sunday when he allowed those with no other alternative to seek shelter from the storm inside the Louisiana Superdome. We still don’t know what the death toll is, but one thing is certain: Had the Superdome not been opened, the city’s death toll would have been higher. The toll may even have been exponentially higher.

It was clear to us by late morning Monday that many people inside the Superdome would not be returning home. It should have been clear to our government, Mr. President. So why weren’t they evacuated out of the city immediately? We learned seven years ago, when Hurricane Georges threatened, that the Dome isn’t suitable as a long-term shelter. So what did state and national officials think would happen to tens of thousands of people trapped inside with no air conditioning, overflowing toilets and dwindling amounts of food, water and other essentials?

State Rep. Karen Carter was right Friday when she said the city didn’t have but two urgent needs: "Buses! And gas!" Every official at the Federal Emergency Management Agency should be fired, Director Michael Brown especially.

In a nationally televised interview Thursday night, he said his agency hadn’t known until that day that thousands of storm victims were stranded at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center. He gave another nationally televised interview the next morning and said, "We’ve provided food to the people at the Convention Center so that they’ve gotten at least one, if not two meals, every single day."

Lies don’t get more bald-faced than that, Mr. President.

Yet, when you met with Mr. Brown Friday morning, you told him, "You’re doing a heck of a job."

That’s unbelievable.

There were thousands of people at the Convention Center because the riverfront is high ground. The fact that so many people had reached there on foot is proof that rescue vehicles could have gotten there, too.

We, who are from New Orleans, are no less American than those who live on the Great Plains or along the Atlantic Seaboard. We’re no less important than those from the Pacific Northwest or Appalachia. Our people deserved to be rescued.

http://www.indybay.org/news/2005/09/1764948.php


So to sum it up for you...Local and state officials knew for a long time that they were incapable of getting their impoverished and specials needs population out of harm's way, but rather than addressing and resolving that problem they do nothing...then blame President Bush for not saving them from themselves fast enough. They are either unaware that evacuations are a local government responsibility--supported by the state (per N.O. emergency response charter)--or they're being rather disingenuous, to say the least.
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No comprende

#2 Postby Eye10TX » Tue Sep 06, 2005 3:13 am

There is a disconnect here that I just don't understand:

~~~~~
[snip]...
"State Rep. Karen Carter was right Friday when she said the city didn’t have but two urgent needs: "Buses! And gas!" Every official at the Federal Emergency Management Agency should be fired, Director Michael Brown especially." ....
~~~~~

"We need buses and gas. Fire Michael Brown!"

Explain this to me. They are transported through the 4th dimension? Some 134,000 fully gassed buses fall from the sky instantaneously and simultaneously at the front door of every poor person in NOLA?

Where's David Copperfield when you need him to get the transports out of the Great Garage in the Sky? Too bad Samantha doesn't work for FEMA, so she could just wiggle her nose and fix everything.
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Re: No comprende

#3 Postby Mac » Tue Sep 06, 2005 3:19 am

Eye10TX wrote:There is a disconnect here that I just don't understand:

~~~~~
[snip]...
"State Rep. Karen Carter was right Friday when she said the city didn’t have but two urgent needs: "Buses! And gas!" Every official at the Federal Emergency Management Agency should be fired, Director Michael Brown especially." ....
~~~~~

"We need buses and gas. Fire Michael Brown!"

Explain this to me. They are transported through the 4th dimension? Some 134,000 fully gassed buses fall from the sky instantaneously and simultaneously at the front door of every poor person in NOLA?

Where's David Copperfield when you need him to get the transports out of the Great Garage in the Sky? Too bad Samantha doesn't work for FEMA, so she could just wiggle her nose and fix everything.


They say they need buses? Hmmm. Consider this (borrowed from another forum I frequent):

I post this message for information purposes only. What you choose to do with it is your choice, but it is fact and can be backed up by documents and pictures.
First here is a picture of 137 buses that sat in the parking lot not far from the superdome that were NOT used to evacuate people.
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=New+O...09958&t=e&hl=en
Next we have this picture of 205 buses that were NOT used to evacuate people.
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=sto...flpc21109012015


Next we have this document
http://www.ntdprogram.com/NTD/Profi.../$File/6032.pdf
That shows that NORTA (New Orleans transit authority) has 364 buses. These were also NOT used to evacuate people. This document also shows an additional 111 vehicles that were smaller buses that hold on average 15 people.

So if you add all these buses up you get a total bus number of 706 buses. That holds 50 people and on 1 way trip that is a total of 35,300 people that could have been evacuated. There would have been time to have another trip which would have added another 35,330 people out of town, and lets not forget the 111 smaller buses that hold 15 people which add up to 1665 add 2 trips for a total of 3330.

35,300
35,300
1665
1665
73,930 total

And we now have a grand total of 73,930 people that COULD have been evacuated, BUT WERE'nt......


I have no idea why they would believe that buses are a federal responsibility, nor why they would be complaining about not having any buses to evacuate people when they clearly had so many abandonded in the City of N.O. It boggles the mind.
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#4 Postby Mac » Tue Sep 06, 2005 3:21 am

And this from the LA disaster plan, page 13:

Louisiana disaster plan, pg 13, para 5 , dated 01/00

'The primary means of hurricane evacuation will be personal vehicles. School and municipal buses, government-owned vehicles and vehicles provided by volunteer agencies may be used to provide transportation for individuals who lack transportation and require assistance in evacuating'
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#5 Postby Mac » Tue Sep 06, 2005 3:55 am

Oops. It appears that Nagin is getting a little tired of taking all the heat for lack of evacuations while Blanco denies culpability as she sits on the sidelines and watches him flounder. This is from a CNN interview yesterday:

CNN aired this incredable interview with the outspoken mayor of New Orleans, Ray Nagin yeterday morning. From the CNN transcript:

S. O'BRIEN: There are people who say your evacuation plan, obviously in hindsight, was disastrous.

MAYOR RAY NAGIN, NEW ORLEANS: Which one?

S. O'BRIEN: Your evacuation plan before -- when you put people into the Superdome. It wasn't thought out. You got 20,000 people in there. And that you bear the brunt of the blame for some of this, a large chunk of it.

NAGIN: Look, I'll take whatever responsibility that I have to take. But let me ask you this question: When you have a city of 500,000 people, and you have a category 5 storm bearing down on you, and you have the best you've ever done is evacuate 60 percent of the people out of the city, and you have never issued a mandatory evacuation in the city's history, a city that is a couple of hundred years old, I did that. I elevated the level of distress to the citizens.

And I don't know what else I could do, other than to tell them that it's a mandatory evacuation. And if they stayed, make sure you have a frigging ax in your home, where you can bust out the roof just in case the water starts flowing.

And as a last resort, once this thing is above a category 3, there are no buildings in this city to withstand a category 3, a category 4 or a category 5 storm, other than the Superdome. That's where we sent people as a shelter of last resort. When that filled up, we sent them to the Convention Center. Now, you tell me what else we could have done.

S. O'BRIEN: What has Secretary Chertoff promised you? What has Donald Rumsfeld given you and promised you?

NAGIN: Look, I've gotten promises to -- I can't stand anymore promises. I don't want to hear anymore promises. I want to see stuff done. And that's why I'm so happy that the president came down here, because I think they were feeding him a line of bull also. And they were telling him things weren't as bad as it was.

He came down and saw it, and he put a general on the field. His name is General Honore. And when he hit the field, we started to see action.

And what the state was doing, I don't frigging know. But I tell you, I am pissed. It wasn't adequate.And then, the president and the governor sat down. We were in Air Force One. I said, 'Mr. President, Madam Governor, you two have to get in sync. If you don't get in sync, more people are going to die.'

S. O'BRIEN: What date was this? When did you say that? When did you say...

NAGIN: Whenever air Force One was here.

S. O'BRIEN: OK.

NAGIN: And this was after I called him on the telephone two days earlier. And I said, 'Mr. President, Madam Governor, you two need to get together on the same page, because of the lack of coordination, people are dying in my city.'

S. O'BRIEN: That's two days ago.

NAGIN: They both shook -- I don't know the exact date. They both shook their head and said yes. I said, 'Great.' I said, 'Everybody in this room is getting ready to leave.' There was senators and his cabinet people, you name it, they were there. Generals. I said, 'Everybody right now, we're leaving. These two people need to sit in a room together and make a doggone decision right now.'

S. O'BRIEN: And was that done?

NAGIN: The president looked at me. I think he was a little surprised. He said, "No, you guys stay here. We're going to another section of the plane, and we're going to make a decision."

He called me in that office after that. And he said, "Mr. Mayor, I offered two options to the governor." I said -- and I don't remember exactly what. There were two options. I was ready to move today. The governor said she needed 24 hours to make a decision.
S. O'BRIEN: You're telling me the president told you the governor said she needed 24 hours to make a decision?

NAGIN: Yes.

S. O'BRIEN: Regarding what? Bringing troops in?

NAGIN: Whatever they had discussed. As far as what the -- I was abdicating a clear chain of command, so that we could get resources flowing in the right places.

S. O'BRIEN: And the governor said no.

NAGIN: She said that she needed 24 hours to make a decision. It would have been great if we could of left Air Force One, walked outside, and told the world that we had this all worked out. It didn't happen, and more people died.
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#6 Postby MBismyPlayground » Tue Sep 06, 2005 4:41 am

hhmmm........I find it even more interesting that now none of these links work........anyone else have the pictures of the buses saved on their computers??????
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#7 Postby Mac » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:45 am

MBismyPlayground wrote:hhmmm........I find it even more interesting that now none of these links work........anyone else have the pictures of the buses saved on their computers??????


Yeah, I noticed that too. If they were linked to pics that were temporarily stored on a server, they might not work any more. Of course, we've all seen the buses. If you want to see the pics again, you can Google "New Orleans Katrina Evacuation Buses" and I'm sure it will get you what you're looking for.

After posting this, I realized there were even MORE buses that were overlooked. The airport has many shuttle buses as well that probably could have been used, given that the airport was closed.
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#8 Postby MBismyPlayground » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:01 am

Mac wrote:
MBismyPlayground wrote:hhmmm........I find it even more interesting that now none of these links work........anyone else have the pictures of the buses saved on their computers??????


Yeah, I noticed that too. If they were linked to pics that were temporarily stored on a server, they might not work any more. Of course, we've all seen the buses. If you want to see the pics again, you can Google "New Orleans Katrina Evacuation Buses" and I'm sure it will get you what you're looking for.

After posting this, I realized there were even MORE buses that were overlooked. The airport has many shuttle buses as well that probably could have been used, given that the airport was closed.


Found plenty of pictures within blogs, but hard to find other places. hhhhmmmm
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#9 Postby therealashe » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:18 am

I do remember seeing some video of buses underwater, and I wondered why they weren't used. I know that CNN has video tape now showing city buses being used to get those still in their home out.

(There is a link on CNN that says WATCH: Some still refusing to leave where you can see the buses running and some not)

After reading the state's own emergency plan, I find myself questioning why they didn't use city buses, school buses etc to get people out of the city.

I know by the time they ordered the manditory evacuation there might not have been enough time to get it all planned, but you'd think that would be part of the state emergency plan. You know like people in 9th ward go to X location for evac bus, people in X parish, go here. Is that really something that would have been impossible to preplan? Considering that they have in their plan that they will provide the transportation?
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#10 Postby MBismyPlayground » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:39 am

I am sure that I will get bashed for saying/writing this but......it is on my mind, and since I dont live there and really have never believed in conspiracy theories and such.....but something that keeps sticking in my mind, bugging me, after reading these documents and interviews and such.....some of you will accuse me of assuming too much ect......but.....
Several days ago I posted an estimation...based on numbers, based on availability, of how many cars would be evacuating, had there been enough transportation for more people. Example..... if there were only 10,000 people left to evacuate, and 1 out of each 4 had a car ect.....that it would add to the traffic out, 2500 more cars......The numbers when compiled were astounding. Then lets add the 400+ buses we have seen that could have been utilized.
I am just wondering if this evacuation was put off because officials KNEW that there was NO WAY these people could evacuate even with a 48 hour notice?? That allowing or notifying, providing transportation for the poor, inept, elderly to evacuate would only add to the traffic jams trying to get out. I realize that this is seriously pushing the envelope but.........
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#11 Postby aumoore » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:28 am

I am so sick of all the bashing of the Federal Government for not having the following before the storm: 15 navy ships in the mouth of the Mississippi. 1,000 C130 airplanes in Keesler waiting to fly everyone out, 1500 FEMA tractor trailer trucks with water and MRE's in St Bernard Parish and 2,000 tanker trucks full of gas and diesel. As ridiculous as this sounds that is about what the media and the people expect. Everyone knows we could not have all these resources in place before the storm and why expect it in 24 hours after the storm? They say we can have armies in place in 24 hours? I say BS because if you go back and look at the recent Wars in the Middle East you will see media reports of the massive “buildups” before the storm hit. It takes days to send a ship from say Savannah GA to New Orleans. They shore could not have been in the Gulf with the storm.

The cold hard facts are if the people had heeded the warnings thousands of lives would have been saved and maybe ¼ of the relief effort would have been needed. The local government is responsible for ordering evacuations and helping those with special needs get to shelters. If people do not want to leave their home because they are afraid of looters then they take their lives into their own hands. This is not just a poor persons problem as many middle class and higher people died along with the poor. The Government can’t protect people from themselves but they are expected to bail them out when they do stupid things. I do pray for these people and I give to the Red Cross but many of these people heard the warnings and did nothing to protect them. Most could have walked to shelters before the storm.

Maybe this will show the living what can happen to you if you make bad decisions.
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#12 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:48 am

aumoore wrote:I am so sick of all the bashing of the Federal Government for not having the following before the storm: 15 navy ships in the mouth of the Mississippi. 1,000 C130 airplanes in Keesler waiting to fly everyone out, 1500 FEMA tractor trailer trucks with water and MRE's in St Bernard Parish and 2,000 tanker trucks full of gas and diesel. As ridiculous as this sounds that is about what the media and the people expect.


If that's true, I'm sure you can post a link to at least one article which expressed that expectation. I thought I'd been reading widely, but apparently there's a huge body of stuff out there I haven't seen.

Everyone knows we could not have all these resources in place before the storm and why expect it in 24 hours after the storm?


Uhhh ... first you say the media and people were saying we should have had all those things, and then you say that "everyone knows" we couldn't have those things.

Could it be that you're engaging in hyperbole in an effort to conflate reasonable questions with unreasonable ones?

They say we can have armies in place in 24 hours? I say BS because if you go back and look at the recent Wars in the Middle East you will see media reports of the massive “buildups” before the storm hit. It takes days to send a ship from say Savannah GA to New Orleans. They shore could not have been in the Gulf with the storm.


I agree that the 24-hours that get kicked around is nonsense. But regarding "buildup" - that was precisely the point of declaring an emergency in advance of the storm - and it appears to me there were failures with respect to that. 24 hours is indeed an unreasonable expectation. But that supplies could begin being airlifted to central points like the Superdome and the convention center in 48 hours or less is (given my admittedly incomplete knowledge of the specifics of this situation) not unreasonable. Four days appears unneccesarily long.

Regarding ships - you raise an issue I've been trying to understand: Why did the USS Comfort, the USS Iwo Jima and their support ships not depart Norfolk before Wednesday afternoon? Maybe they weren't at their normal ready status, I don't know ... but under normal conditions it should not have taken over five days after the declaration of emergency for these assets to be bound for the Gulf.
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#13 Postby beenthru6 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:48 am

The whole notion of relying on the Federal Gov't for everything is inherently flawed anyway. I don't know why people are surprised when it doesn't deliver everything they want. The Federal Gov't's job isn't to personally bail out every one who gets in trouble whether it is their own fault or not their fault. Government was never designed for that, yet that is what most people'e expectations are.
Heck, I am not even relying on the Gov't to pay me back any of the Social Security I have been paying into most of my life.
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#14 Postby feederband » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:51 am

As far as I going to blame anyone....It is Katrina's fault...Deal with it... Learn from it...Thats all we can do to hopefully we will be more ready for the next time....BLAME KATRINA.....Everyone that is down there is working their butts off and trying even dieing to make thing better for these storm victims. I'm tired of these officials in front of the tube trying to defend themselves just let them work....
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#15 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:53 am

Unbelieveable, just unbelieveable.
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#16 Postby therealashe » Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:05 am

Well considering that LA on emergency plan (which someone so kindly linked me to the other day) says that they will use buses to evacuate those who can't get out on their own... I don't think it's wrong to have the expectation that they would at least ATTEMPT to do that. All I've seen that LA did was get those people to the Superdome.

I think part of the problem is that while most people knew what the "worst" could be, no one expected it to be as bad as it was/is.


Do I blame the federal government for not being there sooner? Tough question. Part of me wants to... part of me wants to feel like being a great superpower that we are, that we could have been there in 24 hours saving lives. But the more realistic part of me knows that after a hurricane, it takes 3-4 days for things to start going. It's why we're told to prepare to be self sustaining. Keep in mind how many bridges and roads were destroyed or underwater. Not to mention airports etc.

It's very easy for us to sit here and armchair quarterback, I've been guilty of it as well. But the more I really think about it, there are a lot of people to blame from the top to the bottom, including, those who CHOOSE not to evacuate, some who STILL are choosing not to leave.
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#17 Postby themusk » Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:09 am

beenthru6 wrote:The whole notion of relying on the Federal Gov't for everything is inherently flawed anyway. I don't know why people are surprised when it doesn't deliver everything they want. The Federal Gov't's job isn't to personally bail out every one who gets in trouble whether it is their own fault or not their fault. Government was never designed for that, yet that is what most people'e expectations are.
Heck, I am not even relying on the Gov't to pay me back any of the Social Security I have been paying into most of my life.


The reason is that in large-scale disasters, the demands of mitigation, rescue, and recovery rapidly exceed the resources of private individuals and local government, but have a national economic impact (as anyone who has gassed up lately knows).

What is government designed for, if it is not to protect the property and lives of its citizens?
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#18 Postby Terry » Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:40 am

I'm sick of the apologists for the President, FEMA, HS, LA Gov, NO Mayor.

The squabbling between the levels shows the total breakdown of The Plans and the contingencies, whatever they were, and whomever was responsible for implementation.

We knew via the many media reports and live feeds of the totally desperate situation thousands of people were in. Who cares initially how they got in that situation ---- iat that point it was time for gov't to jump in.

The fact that these 3 levels of our government couldn't work together to provide an adequate, timely response to protect lives and property is totally unacceptable.
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#19 Postby feederband » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:05 pm

First of all the people were told to leave....Some couldn't...But still many just decided it wasn't going to be that bad...Now these same people still wont leave tieing up people that could be still saving lives... I feel that they should have been told sooner to evac....Second you can't just tell 5,10,15 thousand troops get down their without having the support to maintain them there first....I can't fathom the logisics involved there...90000 sq miles of disater with communication at a nill. I don't think we would ever have enough personal and supply's pre position to handle something like this...Third the thing that is bothering me, with the tropics the way they are now I can't think of what would happen if we get another major cane anywhere in the US would there be anyone left to help recovery efforts in another disater area??? :eek: :eek:
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#20 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 06, 2005 1:16 pm

Thought this was an interesting passage from a writeup of the Hurricane Pam exercise:

A considerable amount of data was collected during the New Orleans evacuation associated with Hurricane Ivan in September 2004. Dr. Jeanne Hurlbert and Dr. John J. Beggs, professors in the Dept. of Sociology at LSU, studied how individuals in the New Orleans area would respond to a major hurricane. Their phone survey excluded those living in households without telephones. Those households are disproportionately poor, minority residents. These individuals are also much more likely than to reside in vulnerable housing. In some parts of the city, the proportion of households that lacks telephones is high — as much as 25%. Based on a 2004 telephone survey [that excluded these households], the LSU professors, found that overall, 68.8% of respondents would leave the area, 9.8% would leave their homes but remain in the area, and 21.4% would remain in their homes. That 21.4% of respondents would remain in their homes is a startling and important statistic, because it indicates that nearly 1 in 4 residents would refuse to leave their homes and 3 in 10 would refuse to leave the area.

The City of New Orleans, with its 1.3 million residents, has limited out-bound route capacities. One of the problems of mandatory evacuations is that they are difficult to enforce. Many people resist being ordered to leave their homes and property by government officials. The number of people without access to transportation in New Orleans, has been estimated as high as 25 to 30 percent of the population. In addition to people without vehicles, potential low mobility evacuees include the indigent, elderly, prisoners, the infirm, and tourists. About 250,000 residents of New Orleans (not including tourists or "special needs" populations) have no means of private transportation. The total number of busses in all of New Orleans would provide only a fraction of the capacity needed to transport all of these people.

Louisiana emergency management officials planned to use any available alternative means of transportation, including National Guard vehicles. They also planned to open local shelters and refuges of last resort for those not able to evacuate.


http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hurricane-pam.htm
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