Those briefed by NHC-Mayfield seems bewildered over response

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Terry
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Those briefed by NHC-Mayfield seems bewildered over response

#1 Postby Terry » Tue Sep 06, 2005 1:59 pm

edit - we all know Max and NHC did an exemplary job. He and his crew shouldn't feel in any way responsible.

Seattle Times article:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/n ... eld05.html

Official says feds warned of storm's potential

By MARK SCHLEIFSTEIN
Newhouse News Service

BATON ROUGE, La. — Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center, said yesterday that officials with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Department of Homeland Security — including FEMA Director Mike Brown and Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff — listened in on electronic briefings given by his staff before Hurricane Katrina slammed Louisiana and Mississippi and were advised of the storm's potential deadly effects.

Mayfield said the strength of the storm and the potential disaster it could bring were made clear during the briefings and in formal advisories, which warned of a storm surge capable of overtopping levees in New Orleans and winds strong enough to blow out windows of high-rise buildings. He said the briefings included information on expected wind speed, storm surge, rainfall and the potential for tornadoes to accompany the storm as it came ashore.

"We were briefing them way before landfall," Mayfield said. "It's not like this was a surprise. ... I keep looking back to see if there was anything else we could have done, and I just don't know what it would be," he said.

Chertoff said Saturday that government officials had not expected the damaging combination of a powerful hurricane and levee breaches that flooded New Orleans.

Brown, Mayfield said, is a dedicated public servant. "The question is why he couldn't shake loose the resources that were needed," he said.

Brown and Chertoff could not be reached for comment yesterday.

In the days before Katrina hit, Mayfield said, his staff also briefed FEMA, which is part of the Department of Homeland Security, at FEMA's headquarters in Washington, D.C., its Region 6 office in Dallas and the Region 4 office in Atlanta about the storm's potential.

He said all of those briefings were logged in the Hurricane Center's records.

Mayfield said his staff also participated in the five-day "Hurricane Pam" exercise sponsored by FEMA and the Louisiana Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness in July 2004 that assumed a similar storm would hit the city.

Mayfield said his concern now is that another named storm could hit, as September is the most-active month of the annual hurricane season. "This is like the fourth inning in a nine-inning ballgame," he said.
Last edited by Terry on Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby tndefender » Tue Sep 06, 2005 2:08 pm

Apparently Max didn't get his "talking points."
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#3 Postby Cookiely » Tue Sep 06, 2005 2:54 pm

tndefender wrote:Apparently Max didn't get his "talking points."

He tried his best by calling NO mayor and when he didn't get the response he wanted, he called the President. What more could he do.
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#4 Postby tndefender » Tue Sep 06, 2005 3:11 pm

Cookiely wrote:
tndefender wrote:Apparently Max didn't get his "talking points."

He tried his best by calling NO mayor and when he didn't get the response he wanted, he called the President. What more could he do.


I wasn't suggesting he could do anymore. In fact he was exemplary. The comment simply means that unlike just about every other federal official he refuses to merely spout the emerging "party line" regarding the government response.
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#5 Postby Cookiely » Tue Sep 06, 2005 3:51 pm

tndefender wrote:
Cookiely wrote:
tndefender wrote:Apparently Max didn't get his "talking points."

He tried his best by calling NO mayor and when he didn't get the response he wanted, he called the President. What more could he do.


I wasn't suggesting he could do anymore. In fact he was exemplary. The comment simply means that unlike just about every other federal official he refuses to merely spout the emerging "party line" regarding the government response.

I am sure when the witch hunt starts in a few months Mayfield will have some testimony to give.
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#6 Postby banshee » Tue Sep 06, 2005 4:35 pm

"I keep looking back to see if there was anything else we could have done, and I just don't know what it would be"

Sad Mayfield even had to speak those words. Sounds as if he's carrying a burden which is now on the shoulders of others. He and his staff at the NHC are giving every warning possible and calling everyone under the sun but no one listened.
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kevin

#7 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 06, 2005 4:50 pm

Max served his country well. As well as all those under him at the NHC, and the local offices of the NWS. This was not a failure of science, or a failure of scientific administration, but a problem with logistics and chain of command in the response.
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#8 Postby jasons2k » Tue Sep 06, 2005 4:53 pm

I wish I still had the text from NWS NOLA on Sunday morning.


Some tidbits were:

"most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer."

when describing the debris, it stated: "if you are struck...you will be killed"

it said "all exposed livestock will be killed"

'all wooden-framed homes would have roof and wall failure, all homes with gabled roofs would have roof failure, towers may sway to the point of total collapse.'

It was the most distressing NWS message I have ever read; it was cataclysmic.

IMO there was nothing more the NHC or the NWS could have done.
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#9 Postby greeng13 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:07 pm

kevin wrote:Max served his country well. As well as all those under him at the NHC, and the local offices of the NWS. This was not a failure of science, or a failure of scientific administration, but a problem with logistics and chain of command in the response.


Mayfield for President 2008? :D

Sorry, not to get political...just trying to add some humor.

It is beyond sadness the burden this man must be carrying to be the one (of arguably many) who "knows the best" what will happen and not be listened to. Bastardi, et al also predicted this outcome (even before the NHC changed Katrina's course). But also Mayfield is the last call.... "weatherman-wise"---- right? Being the director of the NHC?

Who else will you listen to if not him? (whether you are a layperson but more importantly... a politician)
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#10 Postby southerngale » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:24 pm

jschlitz wrote:I wish I still had the text from NWS NOLA on Sunday morning.


Some tidbits were:

"most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer."

when describing the debris, it stated: "if you are struck...you will be killed"

it said "all exposed livestock will be killed"

'all wooden-framed homes would have roof and wall failure, all homes with gabled roofs would have roof failure, towers may sway to the point of total collapse.'

It was the most distressing NWS message I have ever read; it was cataclysmic.

IMO there was nothing more the NHC or the NWS could have done.




NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!
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#11 Postby jasons2k » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:19 pm

southerngale wrote:
jschlitz wrote:I wish I still had the text from NWS NOLA on Sunday morning.


Some tidbits were:

"most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer."

when describing the debris, it stated: "if you are struck...you will be killed"

it said "all exposed livestock will be killed"

'all wooden-framed homes would have roof and wall failure, all homes with gabled roofs would have roof failure, towers may sway to the point of total collapse.'

It was the most distressing NWS message I have ever read; it was cataclysmic.

IMO there was nothing more the NHC or the NWS could have done.




NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!


That's it, thanks!
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#12 Postby ccsuzy » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:53 pm

I for one saw on tv the projected surge areas and heights. I was particularly interested because my parents vacation in Destin and I was looking for information about the possible impact there. And I remember Max Mayfield talking about how dangerous this storm was.

So I don't get how people can say they weren't warned, didn't know?
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#13 Postby mtm4319 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:55 pm

Not to discredit the NHC by any means, because their forecasts from 48 hours in were excellent, but little if any of the wind damage forecasts they made in their urgent message actually occurred in New Orleans.
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#14 Postby dvdweatherwizard » Tue Sep 06, 2005 7:53 pm

mtm4319 wrote:Not to discredit the NHC by any means, because their forecasts from 48 hours in were excellent, but little if any of the wind damage forecasts they made in their urgent message actually occurred in New Orleans.


One thing perhaps to keep in mind though.....the New Orleans NWS office is also responsible for all of the coastal counties in Mississippi.
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#15 Postby Stephanie » Tue Sep 06, 2005 7:54 pm

Heck, I remember Dr. Steve Lyons showing the potential 15 - 20 foot storm surge in and around NO and the coast of MS as Katrina was approaching! :roll:

No, Max and his staff and the rest of the meteorologists did their job.
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#16 Postby jasons2k » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:01 pm

dvdweatherwizard wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:Not to discredit the NHC by any means, because their forecasts from 48 hours in were excellent, but little if any of the wind damage forecasts they made in their urgent message actually occurred in New Orleans.


One thing perhaps to keep in mind though.....the New Orleans NWS office is also responsible for all of the coastal counties in Mississippi.


You are correct; it verified and they nailed it.
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#17 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:09 pm

That dire NWS statement pasted above was on SUNDAY, though, when Katrina's spiral bands were already hitting New Orleans. Don't you remember the people lining up outside the Superdome in heavy rain? Max's point was that the track was forecast to hit New Orleans as early as Friday, and nothing at all was done on Saturday by the Mayor of New Orleans or the Governor of LA. The NHC even issued a special hurricane watch for New Orleans on Saturday morning, and STILL they didn't begin their evacuation plan.
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#18 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:That dire NWS statement pasted above was on SUNDAY, though, when Katrina's spiral bands were already hitting New Orleans. Don't you remember the people lining up outside the Superdome in heavy rain? Max's point was that the track was forecast to hit New Orleans as early as Friday, and nothing at all was done on Saturday by the Mayor of New Orleans or the Governor of LA. The NHC even issued a special hurricane watch for New Orleans on Saturday morning, and STILL they didn't begin their evacuation plan.



exactly....and today the Mayor of NO is telling Oprah how aweful it was in the Superdome and hes the one that sent people there. This guy is in self preservation mode right now and everything that comes out of his mouth is CYA...
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#19 Postby JTD » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:31 pm

There is no one in the United States Federal governmen that I respect more than Max Mayfield. The work he does is terrific and I can only imagine the frusturation he felt on that Saturday night as no one heeded his warnings.

This whole thing played out just like a Hollywood disaster movie.
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#20 Postby JTD » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:35 pm

ROCK wrote:
wxman57 wrote:That dire NWS statement pasted above was on SUNDAY, though, when Katrina's spiral bands were already hitting New Orleans. Don't you remember the people lining up outside the Superdome in heavy rain? Max's point was that the track was forecast to hit New Orleans as early as Friday, and nothing at all was done on Saturday by the Mayor of New Orleans or the Governor of LA. The NHC even issued a special hurricane watch for New Orleans on Saturday morning, and STILL they didn't begin their evacuation plan.



exactly....and today the Mayor of NO is telling Oprah how aweful it was in the Superdome and hes the one that sent people there. This guy is in self preservation mode right now and everything that comes out of his mouth is CYA...


Does FEMA/other U.S. federal agencies deserve any of the blame in your eyes?
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