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HurricaneHunter914
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I have a question.

#1 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Sep 21, 2006 6:38 am

Is it possible that Wilma was stronger than 185 mph? Because I just read an article from Wikipedia saying Recon did not sample the eyewall for the safety of the people on board.

Here's the part from Wikipedia:
Hurricane Wilma existed within an area of ambient pressure that was unusually low for the Atlantic basin, with ambient pressures below 1010 mb. These are closer to ambient pressures in the northwest Pacific basin. Indeed, under normal circumstances the Dvorak matrix would equate an 890 mb storm in the Atlantic basin -- a CI number of 8 -- with an 858 mb storm in the Pacific. Such a conversion would suggest that Wilma was more intense than Typhoon Tip, the largest and most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded, were normal considerations in play. However, Wilma's winds were somewhat slower than the 196 mph implied by an 8 on the Dvorak scale. 190 mph may seem incredibly fast, but for an 882 mb (26.05 inches) hurricane it is in fact somewhat slow. (By comparison, Hurricane Gilbert, the previous Atlantic record holder, had a pressure of 888 mb (26.22 inches) and also had winds of 185 mph.) In particular, the fact that Wilma had, at one point, winds of only Category 4 strength despite a central pressure well below 900 mb suggests more than anything else that its pressure was misleading.[1]It is very possible that at peak intensity, the Hurricane Hunter aircraft might have missed the area of greatest maximum sustained winds because the aircraft did not actually pass through the eyewall at the time of peak intensity out of concern for the safety of the aircraft & the people on board.
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#2 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Sep 21, 2006 2:09 pm

Yes, there would be concerns...however the crew did in fact fly through the eyewall and into the eye:
...TO USE THE PROPER WORD...RELAYED...
IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.

THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND
DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS
PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.

The plane flew through the eye, and eyewall, however had to return to base. The next flight was not scheduled until after 11 AM, however between 5 and 11 AM Wilma's cloud tops warmed some, according to NHC's 11 AM discussion, thus leading me to believe she was no stronger than the 882 Millibars and 150 knot winds...
also backing up what I stated is the 5 PM discussion which states that the aircraft recon, which entered the system sometime between 11 AM and 5 PM, did indeed find her "weaker"
THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892
MB...WITH PEAK 700 MB WINDS OF 152 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 140 KT.


Here is part of the 11 AM discussion:
THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH WILMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 150 KT
PENDING FURTHER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST
ESTIMATE FOR THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS A BLEND OF THE 881 MB
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE 884 MB FROM AN EYE DROP THAT
SPLASHED IN 23 KT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER
WIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL.
With them mentioning the distinct outer wind maximum, then chances are after they measured the 882 millibar pressure, she did not strengthen anymore than what she was...however this is IMHO by reading what the discussions stated...
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#3 Postby WindRunner » Thu Sep 21, 2006 6:46 pm

The thing to remember is that studies have shown storms to peak out (in terms of wind and pressure) 6-12 hours after the Dvorak, and therefore satellite appearance, peaks. Of course, this isn't true for all storms and can be effected by many different variables, but it gives a general idea of what happens in terms of intensity relative to appearance.
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#4 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Sep 21, 2006 9:57 pm

Wilma with that pressure should of had +190 mph sustained winds, but it was in an area where the ambient pressure was low.
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