Evacuation Question

[Cookiely]

Hypothetically you have a category 1 hurricane which is twelve hours from landfall in the GOM headed toward a large metro area. It itensifies in twelve hours to a category 4 before landfall. Would you begin massive evacuations in that short time span or tell people to stay where they are? What are the rules governing evacuations with this scenario?

[Dionne]

Hard question. We all know that an evacuation with the scenario you have presented is not possible.

There is only one answer I can think of......

"Do the best you can, with what you have, in the time you have left." (Mother Theresa)

[Ptarmigan]

That is a very tough call right there. That's also the worst case scenario as well. A Category 1 hurricane is about the make landfall and voluntary evacuations are ordered and overnight it explodes into a massive Category 5 hurricane. If they call for evacuations for a Category 1 hurricane, it's probably not a bad idea to evacuate.

[JonathanBelles]

If I saw the possibility of explosive development, I would just evacuate.

[wxman57]

Have to be clear on your terminology. Landfall = the center of the hurricane crossing the coast. Tropical storm-force winds could reach the coast greater than 12 hours prior to landfall of the center, making it impossible to evacuate safely. If you're in a surge zone you should plan for a hurricane 1-2 categories higher than is forecast. Forecasting intensity is always harder than forecasting the path. Bottom line is that if you're in the surge zone for ANY hurricane (1-5) you should consider evacuation if a hurricane is heading your way. We saw how quickly hurricanes can develop (Rita from 65 to 165 mph in 36 hours, Wilma did it in 24 hours, Charley Cat 2 to Cat 4 in 6 hours). Forecasters won't be able to say for sure whether such rapid intensification is possible from 3 days before landfall when you have to make your decision to stay or leave.