Models Question...

[salescall]

I was just reviewing all of the models on the wundergorund site (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad). It looks like 4 of the models (NAM, BAMM, GFS, and UKMET) have Fay crossing FL, moving out to the Atlantic, then back into FL. If the consensus of the models show this happening, why does the NHC still show the storm moving into GA, SC, and later NC? Is there data missing on the wunderground site, or is there something else I am missing?

Sorry if this is a duplicate post.

Thanks in advance!

[x-y-no]

NHC's track is based on synoptic analysis as well as a suite of dynamic models. the NAM and BAM suites are not among those, (the BAM suite is used in the deep tropics).

[wall_cloud]

it remains to be seen whether or not this is the case with Fay, but many times the models, simply put, are wrong. While many forecasters tend to overvalue model guidance in the first few days, the best forecasters will deviate when they feel it necessary.