Would it be possible for a storm to hit the UK/Ireland (more likely Ireland) while still tropical?
If the main problem is SSTs then say we had a July like this years, followed by an august like 04's, and something with the track of Gordon or Helene formed, could it hit Ireland while tropical?
Possiblity of storms staying tropical further east?
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Im not a pro but i will try to answer both questions.
A tropical cyclone hitting Ireland? Yes I think it is possible although the chances are rather small. A tropical cyclone is a warm core low, that is the core is warmer than the environment surrounding the storm. There is a lot of latent heat released by the convection so if convection is maintained and the cyclone doesnt become entangled in a frontal trough or upper low theres a chance it may remain warm core even at high lattitudes IF the lapse rate is steep enough..meaning that cold air aloft over the cyclone increases instability and therefore allows convection to persist even over cooler SST's. I suspect this is what happened with Faith although I cant prove it. It is possible that it was a combination of abnormally high SST's and the aforementioned scenario I described allowed Faith to remain tropical for as long as she did.
I hope this answers both questions. Pros or other amateurs feel free to correct me.
A tropical cyclone hitting Ireland? Yes I think it is possible although the chances are rather small. A tropical cyclone is a warm core low, that is the core is warmer than the environment surrounding the storm. There is a lot of latent heat released by the convection so if convection is maintained and the cyclone doesnt become entangled in a frontal trough or upper low theres a chance it may remain warm core even at high lattitudes IF the lapse rate is steep enough..meaning that cold air aloft over the cyclone increases instability and therefore allows convection to persist even over cooler SST's. I suspect this is what happened with Faith although I cant prove it. It is possible that it was a combination of abnormally high SST's and the aforementioned scenario I described allowed Faith to remain tropical for as long as she did.
I hope this answers both questions. Pros or other amateurs feel free to correct me.
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