Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[SouthFloridawx]

Starting tommorow very early in the morning around 2 AM EDT the first mission will go.

Tomorrow as in tonight or tomorrow as in friday night?

[Blown Away]

I'm not questioning their procedures and I know they do research to improve their forecast skills, but why would they waste fuel flying into a storm that they are almost 100% sure will recurve w/o affecting the CONUS?

[cycloneye]

I'm not questioning their procedures and I know they do research to improve their forecast skills, but why would they waste fuel flying into a storm that they are almost 100% sure will recurve w/o affecting the CONUS?

Dont forget the lone island of Bermuda.

[Thunder44]

Starting tommorow very early in the morning around 2 AM EDT the first mission will go.

Tomorrow as in tonight or tomorrow as in friday night?

Tonight. The flight leaves at 11:30pm and arrives at 2am EDT.

[SouthFloridawx]

Starting tommorow very early in the morning around 2 AM EDT the first mission will go.

Tomorrow as in tonight or tomorrow as in friday night?

Tonight. The flight leaves at 11:30pm and arrives at 2am EDT.

Sweet.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Also don't forget eastern Canada and or even Maine... both the NOGAPS and CMC suggest those possibilities

[Lowpressure]

Is it safe to assume a St. Croix departure? Was it the same bird that looked off the outer banks yesterday evening?

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Starting tommorow very early in the morning around 2 AM EDT the first mission will go.

Tomorrow as in tonight or tomorrow as in friday night?

Tonight. The flight leaves at 11:30pm and arrives at 2am EDT.

Actually, I think it's for tomorrow night:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

NOUS42 KNHC 071530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 07 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-100

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
A. 09/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0106A FLORENCE
C. 09/0330Z
D. 24.2N 62.0W
E. 09/0430Z TO 09/0800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 39

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES.

[cycloneye]

Is it safe to assume a St. Croix departure? Was it the same bird that looked off the outer banks yesterday evening?

Being more close to the islands than the U.S mainland it's from ST Croix.

[Thunder44]

Starting tommorow very early in the morning around 2 AM EDT the first mission will go.

Tomorrow as in tonight or tomorrow as in friday night?

Tonight. The flight leaves at 11:30pm and arrives at 2am EDT.

Actually, I think it's for tomorrow night:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

NOUS42 KNHC 071530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 07 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-100

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
A. 09/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0106A FLORENCE
C. 09/0330Z
D. 24.2N 62.0W
E. 09/0430Z TO 09/0800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 39

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES.

Yes, I believe you are correct. The flight leaves at Friday night at 11:30pm EDT from St. Croix and should arrive on Saturday 2am EDT. Sorry, for the confusion.

[dixiebreeze]

BTT

[pojo]

Was it the same bird that looked off the outer banks yesterday evening?

Probably not.... there are 10 birds in the fleet. tail 304 is in St. Croix... the rest are 'stationed' back home at Keesler.

[storms in NC]

Why are they leaveing at night time?

[Brent]

Why are they leaveing at night time?

It won't be nighttime in St. Croix though.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Was it the same bird that looked off the outer banks yesterday evening?

Probably not.... there are 10 birds in the fleet. tail 304 is in St. Croix... the rest are 'stationed' back home at Keesler.

Yes, that's correct. The flight should come out of Keesler AFB in Biloxi, MS.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
A. 09/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0106A FLORENCE
C. 09/0330Z
D. 24.2N 62.0W
E. 09/0430Z TO 09/0800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 39

Teal is the call sign of the 53rd WRS:

The 815th WRS selected the Teal as the bird to represent them. In 1993, the weather reconnaissance portion of the unit was redesignated as the 53rd WRS. This resurrected the famous unit number and "Hurricane Hunters" motto -- but they elected to keep the "Teal" track names and Call Sign.

[craptacular]

Yes, that's correct. The flight should come out of Keesler AFB in Biloxi, MS.

This flight has to come from St Croix. The coordinates listed are 1700 miles from Keesler, and less than 500 miles from St Croix. They only give the flight one hour from takeoff to being on station.

[cycloneye]

418
WTNT31 KNHC 072033
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM AST THU SEP 07 2006

...FLORENCE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT 560
MILES...900 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1015 MILES...1630 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FLORENCE IS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM FROM THE
CENTER. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.6 N...54.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



570
WTNT21 KNHC 072032
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 54.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......350NE 250SE 0SW 250NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 100SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 54.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 54.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.5N 56.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...350NE 250SE 0SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.8N 59.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 85NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 250SE 60SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.0N 61.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 63.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...275NE 250SE 75SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.1N 65.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...275NE 275SE 100SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 32.0N 66.0W...NEAR BERMUDA
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 38.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 54.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT THU SEP 07 2006

FLORENCE REMAINS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE...NOW MORE THAN 900 NMI
DIAMETER... NON-CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE WIND FIELD WAS
EXPANDED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...BASED ON
SURROUNDING SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS. THE OUTER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...WHEREAS INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN
TO DEVELOP OVER AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER FOR THE FIRST TIME.
SINCE FLORENCE IS SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM...CONVECTIVE FLUCTUATIONS IN
THE OUTER REGIONS LIKELY WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WIND SPEEDS
SINCE THE LATTER ARE DRIVEN MORE BY THE SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE LARGE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH. NOW
THAT INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER
THAT DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. FLORENCE REMAINS ON TRACK SO
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR
REASONING. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON TAKING
FLORENCE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING THE CYCLONE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST
BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP IN 72-96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...
AND BRINGS FLORENCE VERY NEAR BERMUDA IN ABOUT 96 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 20.6N 54.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 21.5N 56.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 22.8N 59.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 24.0N 61.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 25.2N 63.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 28.1N 65.7W 90 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 32.0N 66.0W 95 KT...NEAR BERMUDA
120HR VT 12/1800Z 38.0N 63.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

why is this part in the public advisory - seems redundant. It makes sense if this was being broadcasted over a radio or something. I say remove it.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.6 N...54.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.