Hurricane Gordon - Cat. 3

#101 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:10 pm

NOUS42 KNHC 111430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 11 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-104

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE
C. 12/1530Z
D. 22.7N 59.1W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 71

The next mission will be tommorow with takeoff at 11:30 AM EDT.

#102 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:09 pm

Thead # 1
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 73&start=0

#103 Postby **hial2** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:14 pm

I believe Mr M Watkins mentioned a model that forecasted a storm stall..I think he said Flo, but since Gordon formed so close to her...

Edited for spelling

Damar91 · #104 Postby **Damar91** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:17 pm

hial2 wrote:I believe Mr M Watkins mention a model that forecasted a storm stall..I think he mentioned Flo, but since Gordon formed so close to her...

I would love to see that because it seems like Gordon has come to a griding halt.

Damar91 · #105 Postby **Damar91** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:19 pm

What is this big line of convection in front of Gordon?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

#106 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:21 pm

Damar91 wrote:What is this big line of convection in front of Gordon?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

That's the tail from Florence.

Damar91 · #107 Postby **Damar91** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Damar91 wrote:What is this big line of convection in front of Gordon?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

That's the tail from Florence.

Thanks cycloneye. That sure is a big tail!

#108 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:27 pm

11/2345 UTC 21.8N 57.4W T3.0/3.0 GORDON -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD sat estimates are for a stronger storm.

Josephine96 · #109 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:27 pm

I'm not sold on a quick recurve and la di da yet.. He's not moving very fast and hasn't been doing so since his inception.. Watch and see how much the ridge builds in.. if it does.. then we may have a stronger storm going just north of the Islands..

Cyclenall · #110 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:11/2345 UTC 21.8N 57.4W T3.0/3.0 GORDON -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD sat estimates are for a stronger storm.

Not surprised to see that. It's getting better on every frame.

#111 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:45 pm

I estimate the 0030Z position close to 22.1N/57.3W. Movement appears to be NW to NNW (maybe 330-340 deg) at around 8 kts, possibly a bit more. I see no evidence of stalling. Appears to be following all model guidance.

BY the way, what Derek meant about a stronger storm tracking more to the west wasn't implying that it would MOVE west, that it would possibly recurve a degree or two more to the west, maybe at 61-62W vs. 59-60W. Nothing more.

Gordon does not look like a threat to Bermuda, and certainly not a threat to the eastern U.S. It does look like it's 24 hrs or less from becoming a hurricane, though.

#112 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Damar91 wrote:What is this big line of convection in front of Gordon?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

That's the tail from Florence.

Looks more like a frontal boundary. Florence is looking decidely like an occluded cold-core low now.

Bgator · #113 Postby **Bgator** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:I estimate the 0030Z position close to 22.1N/57.3W. Movement appears to be NW to NNW (maybe 330-340 deg) at around 8 kts, possibly a bit more. I see no evidence of stalling. Appears to be following all model guidance.

BY the way, what Derek meant about a stronger storm tracking more to the west wasn't implying that it would MOVE west, that it would possibly recurve a degree or two more to the west, maybe at 61-62W vs. 59-60W. Nothing more.

Gordon does not look like a threat to Bermuda, and certainly not a threat to the eastern U.S. It does look like it's 24 hrs or less from becoming a hurricane, though.

Can you make a graphic or something, because i defenitly do not see this....

#114 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:10 pm

TROPICAL STORM GORDON (AL072006) ON 20060912 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060912 0000 060912 1200 060913 0000 060913 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.8N 57.6W 22.8N 59.1W 24.0N 60.4W 25.6N 61.4W
BAMM 21.8N 57.6W 23.0N 59.1W 24.4N 59.9W 26.0N 60.3W
A98E 21.8N 57.6W 22.7N 59.2W 23.9N 60.6W 25.6N 61.5W
LBAR 21.8N 57.6W 23.2N 59.0W 24.7N 59.7W 26.5N 60.0W
SHIP 45KTS 55KTS 63KTS 71KTS
DSHP 45KTS 55KTS 63KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060914 0000 060915 0000 060916 0000 060917 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.6N 62.2W 31.9N 61.8W 35.0N 58.7W 38.6N 52.1W
BAMM 27.6N 60.3W 30.6N 59.7W 32.8N 58.6W 36.6N 55.3W
A98E 27.1N 62.6W 31.8N 62.0W 35.2N 59.0W 40.1N 48.8W
LBAR 28.3N 59.9W 31.3N 58.4W 33.6N 55.4W 34.5N 49.7W
SHIP 77KTS 81KTS 76KTS 72KTS
DSHP 77KTS 81KTS 76KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 57.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 56.2W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 20.3N LONM24 = 54.5W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 25NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z Models.Ship up to 81 kts.

#115 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:11 pm

Ok, I made a few graphics based upon the 18Z GFS model run. They represent the mean mid-level flow (400mb-700mb, or 10,000-20,000 ft) for tinight, tomorrow, and Wednesday night. I've indicated the projected location of Gordon on each map with a red "X" and a white arrow indicating movement.

Tonight 10pm CDT:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gordon12.gif

Tuesday 10pm CDT:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gordon13.gif

Wednesday 10pm CDT:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gordon14.gif

Unless all the global models are wrong, then there is just nothing to take Gordon westward. It's now at the western extent of the Bermuda High. If anything, very large Florence to its NNW is enhancing the trof just west of Gordon. Nothing to indicate that the ridge northeast of Gordon is building westward.

Normandy · #116 Postby **Normandy** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:17 pm

^^ Good maps

Interestingly, the wave coming off Africa should just plow westward if those maps are correct.

#117 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:19 pm

Normandy wrote:^^ Good maps

Interestingly, the wave coming off Africa should just plow westward if those maps are correct.

For a while, anyway. Could be a threat to the eastern Caribbean.

#118 Postby **canetracker** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:29 pm

Wxman57: Agree with the models and the northern turn, however, what do you mean by being a threat, temporarily, to the eastern Caribbean?

#119 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:33 pm

canetracker wrote:Wxman57: Agree with the models and the northern turn, however, what do you mean by being a threat, temporarily, to the eastern Caribbean?

I am not wxman57,but if I am correct,he is talking about the wave with low pressure that is just off the African Coast.

ROCK · #120 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:35 pm

canetracker wrote:Wxman57: Agree with the models and the northern turn, however, what do you mean by being a threat, temporarily, to the eastern Caribbean?

He meant the current wave now off the coast of Africa....

Hurricane Gordon - Cat. 3

Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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