Tropical Storm Chris

[gerrit]

Maybe we need a reporting live from chris thread.

I'll post something - providing I don't lose internet connection..

[Windtalker1]

A pro met on one of the other threads said he just talked to JB in length and that the general feeling right now with all the long range setups is that Chris will be a problem somewhere between SW Louisianna and Brownsville.

True he did say that but he said also "after it hit around the Miami area"

Where is this? Thanks.

In the "where will chris go" Thread...sorry don't know how to link it

[Rainband]

Seems like the ULL is weakening.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Only 54 knots...Or 43.2 knots at the surface=a little less then 50 mph at the surface.

[jasons2k]

A pro met on one of the other threads said he just talked to JB in length and that the general feeling right now with all the long range setups is that Chris will be a problem somewhere between SW Louisianna and Brownsville.

True he did say that but he said also "after it hit around the Miami area"

NO HE DID NOT SAY THAT - here is the quote:

Quote from KFDM Meteorologist:

"I just soke in great length with Joe Bastardi on the situation. Of course just way to early to say where it goes. But it sure looks like it will get in the GOM. It will all depend on the ridge to the north. The 18Z GFS which of course is a larger scale model doesn't really have it yet, although it's starting to show hints of it around Miami. We're both worried from SW Louisiana to Brownsville at this point. It will all depend on exactly how the upper high is positioned in the south next week."

Edited to correct the username - sorry Greg.

[Extremeweatherguy]

A pro met on one of the other threads said he just talked to JB in length and that the general feeling right now with all the long range setups is that Chris will be a problem somewhere between SW Louisianna and Brownsville.

[Rainband]

A pro met on one of the other threads said he just talked to JB in length and that the general feeling right now with all the long range setups is that Chris will be a problem somewhere between SW Louisianna and Brownsville.

True he did say that but he said also "after it hit around the Miami area"

NO HE DID NOT SAY THAT - here is the quote:

Quote from Greg_KDFM:

"I just soke in great length with Joe Bastardi on the situation. Of course just way to early to say where it goes. But it sure looks like it will get in the GOM. It will all depend on the ridge to the north. The 18Z GFS which of course is a larger scale model doesn't really have it yet, although it's starting to show hints of it around Miami. We're both worried from SW Louisiana to Brownsville at this point. It will all depend on exactly how the upper high is positioned in the south next week."

This is the key

[MississippiHurricane]

I think it might in the long run. There is supposed to be a ULL moving from Fl to Tx that might steer the storm and if Chris speeds up it could affect where it eventually goes.

[stormtruth]

That box idea is old fashioned these days in my opinion. Every storm is different with a different synoptic environment around each time.

Herbert's Box is so old school. Yet kind of cool in a retro kind of way.

It's Hebert's box - a French-Cajun name (A-Bear), not "Herbert".

Thanks! Hebert sounds much better. You could also say it's Paul's Box
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[Windtalker1]

Only 54 knots...Or 43.2 knots at the surface=a little less then 50 mph at the surface.

Where is this taken? From the NW quadrant?

[WindRunner]

Only 54 knots...Or 43.2 knots at the surface=a little less then 50 mph at the surface.

Where is this taken? From the NW quadrant?

Yes. And try to keep any more discussion to the the Recon Discussion thread. Thank you!

[WindRunner]

So it looks like they decided to skip another set of obs . . . that's number 3 this flight

[Weatherfreak000]

Based on what i'm seeing I think the storm will obviously ride the periphery assuming it gets into the gulf, this can be shown with this:


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html



Based upon what i'm seeing with that and how the system is supposed to move I think the highest probability for landfall is definitely Louisiana followed by East Texas and West Miss.


If I had to place my cone for the gulf i'd say anywhere from say....Houston Texas to perhaps Mobile.

[SouthFloridawx]

Are they still in there?

[Windtalker1]

So it looks like they decided to skip another set of obs . . . that's number 3 this flight

Sorry WindRunner for posting in the Recon Thread...My Bad. Thanks

[WindRunner]

That's OK, we just try to keep it as clear as possible, so that when people see a new post there, they know new data has been posted. It also makes it easier for people trying to look back at old data, as they have less conversation to weed through.

[WindRunner]

URNT12 KNHC 020029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/00:09:10Z
B. 18 deg 01 min N
061 deg 19 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 108 deg 054 kt
G. 018 deg 025 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 22 C/ 327 m
J. 25 C/ 321 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 21
MAX FL WIND 54 KT NE QUAD 00:00:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
RADAR SPIRAL BAND PATTERN

[Ivanhater]

can we please sticky the advisory, makes it easier to just see the offical stuff right at the top

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 020029
AF303 0103A CHRIS HDOB 47 KNHC
0017. 1756N 06139W 02989 0161 343 024 094 066 025 03193 0000000000
0018 1756N 06141W 03065 0169 343 027 082 052 027 03278 0000000000
0018. 1756N 06144W 03053 0175 346 027 084 056 027 03272 0000000000
0019 1756N 06146W 03042 0181 345 027 090 054 027 03266 0000000000
0019. 1756N 06149W 03046 0182 347 028 088 056 029 03271 0000000000
0020 1755N 06151W 03047 0183 341 028 086 056 028 03274 0000000000
0020. 1754N 06154W 03049 0186 335 025 086 062 026 03278 0000000000
0021 1753N 06156W 03047 0188 334 025 088 054 026 03279 0000000000
0021. 1752N 06158W 03050 0190 337 024 084 054 025 03283 0000000000
0022 1751N 06200W 03047 0192 338 024 086 052 024 03283 0000000000
0022. 1750N 06203W 03048 0194 342 024 090 052 025 03285 0000000000
0023 1749N 06205W 03048 0195 349 022 082 054 022 03286 0000000000
0023. 1748N 06207W 03049 0197 349 024 084 052 025 03290 0000000000
0024 1746N 06210W 03048 0197 356 025 080 056 025 03289 0000000000
0024. 1745N 06212W 03048 0200 354 023 082 066 023 03291 0000000000
0025 1744N 06214W 03050 0201 350 024 078 078 025 03294 0000000000
0025. 1743N 06217W 03044 0201 345 024 082 062 025 03289 0000000000
0026 1742N 06219W 03047 0200 343 023 080 062 023 03291 0000000000
0026. 1741N 06221W 03049 0201 344 022 080 064 023 03294 0000000000
0027 1740N 06223W 03048 0202 341 022 076 066 022 03294 0000000000

[MiamiensisWx]

Will a supplementary vortex be issued soon?