Tropical Storm Alberto

[curtadams]

Now it is picking up and the computer models are showing it going more to the N?
Also I think I read S. Georgia...any info...my inlaws live in S. Georgia.

They may see a weak tropical storm, at most. The GFDL has been consistently overestimating Alberto. If it does happen, the track is very uncertain. Only one model is showing a S. Georgia pass so it's not likely anyway. If a Panhandle strike becomes more likely the NHC will keep us, and their local meterologist, informed.

[beachbum_al]

Thank you curtadams. I don't know if my inlaws can handle getting any type of storms right now. My fil has cancer (is doing good now) and my mil just had back surgery about three weeks ago. And we are 6 hours away from them and my bil is 8 hours away in NC. So they are without family that can help right now.

[dixiebreeze]

Seems to be just that Christy. We tend to forget that Alberto is still a day or two from landfall, so nothing is set in stone at this point. I've found in the past that the NHC forecast is mostly reliable in the final analysis.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The center could reform in that area.

[SouthFloridawx]

That blow up of convection is not near the center.

[spinfan4eva]

What is the intensity predicted by the GFDL?

Borderline hurricane at landfall. Weakens briefly over south GA, then strengthens to a Cat 2 hurricane while inland over GA and to Cat 3 just before heading out to sea from N. Carolina.
I am not kidding! GFDL winds
Not that I believe it, of course - there has to be something wrong with the GFDL model in this situation.

Supposedly they have adjusted and improved it for this year

[HurricaneHunter914]

Though it is possible I'd give it a 10%-30% of reformation.

[jasons2k]

That blow up of convection is not near the center.

I agree. I think the center is near the green dot to the SW.

[HurricaneHunter914]

You're right jschlitz, but that is still pretty close.

[wxmann_91]

nocturnal convective maximum is the only reason that convection is there

[stormtruth]

nocturnal convective maximum is the only reason that convection is there

another reason could be that Alberto isn't dissipating.

[boca]

Still some life in this baby.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Another is that shear is decreasing.

[curtadams]

What is the intensity predicted by the GFDL?

Borderline hurricane at landfall. Weakens briefly over south GA, then strengthens to a Cat 2 hurricane while inland over GA and to Cat 3 just before heading out to sea from N. Carolina.
I am not kidding! GFDL winds
Not that I believe it, of course - there has to be something wrong with the GFDL model in this situation.

Supposedly they have adjusted and improved it for this year

I have a guess. Last year the GFDL expanded wind fields enormously starting around day 4, resulting in underforcasting winds. I think they tweaked it to keep the windfield down, (and thus pressure gradients and windspeeds up). I think the problem is occuring with extratropical transition, when the windfield does expand enormously. The tweak is suppressing windfield expansion then, so all the energy from what's normally a big temperate system gets crunched into a small area, producing these ludicrous wind forecasts. They should have caught this in testing, though - IMO this is a worse problem than the previous one.

[curtadams]

Still some life in this baby.

It's like one of those B-horror movie villains that jumps out at you every time you're sure it's dead.

[CHRISTY]

Guys here's another pic of the blow up...lets see if it continues.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Please don't mention horror.

[Swimdude]

Hasn't anyone noticed that the Yucatan blob is getting sucked into Alberto? This could certainly cause strengthening with more convection around the center.

[Scorpion]

Lot's more convection near the center. If this persists until morning then it could get interesting.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Oh gosh I hope not, that blob is probably the reason the NHC expects more strengthening now.