Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[HURAKAN]

I'm going to sleep, back @ 5 AM!!!

[stormtruth]

I'm going to sleep, back @ 5 AM!!!

No. No sleep for you. No one can leave. Stay and watch and discuss.

[JonathanBelles]

I'm going to sleep, back @ 5 AM!!!

me 2

[whereverwx]

Lots of dry air.

[28_Storms]

Hurricanehunter calm down already

[28_Storms]

We know about the dry air

[HurricaneHunter914]

Sorry, I've been very excited about TD One its like I drank coffee!

[CHRISTY]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Has the center reformed near the SW tip of Cuba? Right now the NHC has the center in the GOM but I just don't see it.

You won't see an LLC on IR imagery, but that MLC near 25.7N/84.9W looks quite impressive. It could well take over and develop an LLC beneath it as it moves fairly briskly to the NNE overnight. That would mean quite a shift to the right in the forecast track, common with such a sheared system.

wxman57 have u seen were the NHC is now puting the LLC...there placeing a little north of the Ucantan channel.

[whereverwx]

We know about the dry air

That's true, but I just felt like posting images.

[Weatherfreak14]

yea well I'm goin to bed for the night... good night to every one.

[hsvwx]

Been away since earlier this afternoon, and while the system does not look healthy at all, it seems as though it is generating some convection near the low level center that NHC has. So as we go into the overnight hours and the system enters into the convective maximum time period...we have be able to gain a little bit more organization. Just have to keep an eye on convection around that area. This system certainly still has a chance of becoming a tropical storm before reaching the northern gulf and higher shear areas.

[johngaltfla]

This is not an official forecast, just an amateur observation. So don't make plans based on what I say, this is PURE SPECULATION based on observations from living in this region for a long time and the weather history I have seen here.

The discussion here a few days ago was that the shear would relax a bit by Sunday night. If that should occur along with the dry air retreating a bit more, this storm has a chance to intensify enroute to Florida. The question is the timing of the turn and if the center does relocate to the south and east like some think it might (and I agree with them) then we're looking at a whole new set of problems by the 1700 Sunday advisories.

There's my .02 for the night. Flame away or agree, but being in this region for so long and watching storms both bomb to intense hurricanes and dissipate overnight is not unusual at either extreme.

I still think we're looking at a strong Tropical Storm or a Gabrielle type set up by landfall.

[CHRISTY]

11:00PM NHC FORCAST TRACK.TD1

[rockyman]

For anyone who hasn't tried this...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

zoom in on the NHC center location (NW of tip of Cuba) and turn on "rock"...this will forward and rewind the loop over and over...if you speed up the animation, you can clearly see the LLC moving NNW (almost due north)...you'll also notice that the LLC swirl is rotating MUCH faster than the MLC swirl further south....a sure sign that NHC is tracking the correct feature.

[28_Storms]

Flame away

[cmdebbie]

Flame away

[cycloneye]

Flame away

Quality vs Quantity.Check this thread out.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 32&start=0

[28_Storms]

Sorry

[floridahurricaneguy]

Am I the only one who thinks the track is to far north. I am think cedar key or southward.

[johngaltfla]

Am I the only one who thinks the track is to far north. I am think cedar key or southward.

I concur. I tend to lean towards a solution closer to Tarpon Springs myself. BUT alot depends on a confirmed LLC tommorrow and the rate of intensification, IMHO.