Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[HURAKAN]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942006) ON 20060912 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060912 0600 060912 1800 060913 0600 060913 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 20.5W 13.6N 23.8W 14.1N 27.4W 14.5N 31.4W
BAMM 13.0N 20.5W 13.5N 24.1W 13.7N 28.0W 13.9N 32.5W
A98E 13.0N 20.5W 13.1N 24.0W 13.3N 27.6W 13.5N 31.0W
LBAR 13.0N 20.5W 13.1N 24.1W 13.4N 27.9W 13.7N 32.1W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060914 0600 060915 0600 060916 0600 060917 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 35.6W 16.1N 43.3W 16.7N 48.7W 18.0N 51.8W
BAMM 14.0N 37.0W 13.6N 45.0W 14.1N 49.2W 17.1N 50.3W
A98E 13.8N 34.4W 14.7N 39.9W 16.1N 44.3W 19.0N 47.9W
LBAR 14.0N 36.8W 13.3N 45.2W 15.3N 46.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 60KTS 78KTS 90KTS 99KTS
DSHP 60KTS 78KTS 90KTS 99KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 20.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 17.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 13.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[SouthFloridawx]

This system is well on its way to being classified Tropical Storm Helene later today. Satellite imagery reveals very deep thunderstorm activity developed (nocturnal maxima) near, but mostly south and west of a circulation center near 13N. From satellite, the system already seems to be at least a 2.0 in Dvorak intensity estimates. I don't know what is the maximum that is allowed on a first-time estimate, but wouldn't be surprised to see a 2.0 estimate this morning. If not, definitely a 1.5.

There is not much to impede this system to continue strengthening strongly over the next few days with light shear values, associated with a westward moving ULL in the central Atlantic. SAL is not looking like a problem for this one with the explosive convection this morning as proof.

The track looks to take a more WNW-NW course after about 4 days, due to that ULL in the central Atlantic remaining stationary or possibly drop southward by the time the system reaches the area. Still way too early to tell for sure, though and would caution residents in the Lesser Antilles to start monitoring its progress. Conditions appear to favor a dangerous and powerful hurricane in several days.

I remember mentioning 2001 earlier with some of the "season cancel" posts ongoing. This one is following that year and we're not even done with September yet. Proves that we can't raise the "end" flag before September as is very common for the Atlantic basin to have very late seasons.

Who said season cancel?

Do you want a list?

[Thunder44]

I just noticed the same thing. CMC, GFS, and NOGAPS, curve 94 out to sea before 60W.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropatl.html

Yes, due to lack of ridging in the Western Atlantic and shortwave troughs coming off the East Coast. What's interesting is that many of the models seem to take the storm WSW or SW for while in the East Atlantic, because the ridge is so strong in the East Atlantic.

While it's long ways from being certain, I believe that with this current pattern persisting for the next week or so in the Atlantic, it's unlikely that 94L will ever be a threat to the US East Coast.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropatl.html

Gulp . . . the dry air will wrap around today. Might struggle to become a storm today.

There is another canadiate behind 94!

[Blown Away]

This system is well on its way to being classified Tropical Storm Helene later today. Satellite imagery reveals very deep thunderstorm activity developed (nocturnal maxima) near, but mostly south and west of a circulation center near 13N. From satellite, the system already seems to be at least a 2.0 in Dvorak intensity estimates. I don't know what is the maximum that is allowed on a first-time estimate, but wouldn't be surprised to see a 2.0 estimate this morning. If not, definitely a 1.5.

There is not much to impede this system to continue strengthening strongly over the next few days with light shear values, associated with a westward moving ULL in the central Atlantic. SAL is not looking like a problem for this one with the explosive convection this morning as proof.

The track looks to take a more WNW-NW course after about 4 days, due to that ULL in the central Atlantic remaining stationary or possibly drop southward by the time the system reaches the area. Still way too early to tell for sure, though and would caution residents in the Lesser Antilles to start monitoring its progress. Conditions appear to favor a dangerous and powerful hurricane in several days.

I remember mentioning 2001 earlier with some of the "season cancel" posts ongoing. This one is following that year and we're not even done with September yet. Proves that we can't raise the "end" flag before September as is very common for the Atlantic basin to have very late seasons.

Who said season cancel?

Do you want a list?

People are saying the Atlantic season is closed for east coast landfalls, unlikely future Helene will make it past 50W before crossing 20N which = fish. NW Carib will the place to watch for potential CONUS landfall, IMO.

[Thunder44]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropatl.html

Gulp . . . the dry air will wrap around today. Might struggle to become a storm today.

There is another canadiate behind 94!

I don't see alot of dry around the system on WV loop. It's seems to be healthy this morning.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16wv.html

PSU Eyewall site is also provide 30min visible and infrared images from Meteosat now

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html

[Hyperstorm]

Another thing I forgot to mention...NO defined El Nino ongoing as of this month. You don't see much Cape Verde activity in El Nino years. This would be the third Cape Verde system this year and could be a strong one.

Just because the Pacific has warm anomalies does not automatically qualify that as an El Nino. If anything, we could call the current conditions Neutral-Warm.

2000 had as much or even more shear throughout the Atlantic and there were neutral conditions. We need to think outside the box and start researching why some years have more shear than others with no defined El Nino present.

September is not over yet...

[boca]

Agreed Hyperdtorm but anything that forms in the Atlantic won't get passed 60 or 70 degress this year because of the lack of steering currents and weak bermuda high.

[cycloneye]

Agreed Hyperdtorm but anything that forms in the Atlantic won't get passed 60 or 70 degress this year because of the lack of steering currents and weak bermuda high.

And we in the Caribbean are thankfull for that pattern that has been in place this season and hopefully it continues.

[boca]

Agreed Hyperdtorm but anything that forms in the Atlantic won't get passed 60 or 70 degress this year because of the lack of steering currents and weak bermuda high.

And we in the Caribbean are thankfull for that pattern that has been in place this season and hopefully it continues.

If the pattern holds will be safe in the Florida penisula in Oct when the western caibbean favors development.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
20W/21W S OF 19N. A 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 13N. THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LARGE WITH ITS BROAD CYCLONIC
ROTATION COVERING AN AREA OF AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED NM. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS GENERALLY ON THE DECREASE LAST EVENING...HOWEVER
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS FIRED AND EXPANDED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE ANALYZED SFC LOW FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 19W-25W. A QUIKSCAT
PASS NEAR 0700 UTC SHOWED GUSTY WINDS S OF THE LOW. IT WAS ALSO
HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE LOW CENTER WHICH WAS ADJUSTED TO THE NW
FROM THE 00 UTC MAP. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 10 TO 15
KT.

[boca]

NO worries 94L will curve early too because of the pattern which is set up.

[Evil Jeremy]

NO worries 94L will curve early too because of the pattern which is set up.

you sure about that?

all pf the models (except the Ukmet) are showing a gereral westward motion! and the ridge that gordon is moving around is heading west!

[boca]

Yes I'm 90% sure of this due to the pattern that recurved Florence and now Gordon. Look at the end runs on all the models all starting to show recurvature.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_94.gif

[Patrick99]

I don't think you can ever say, in September, that the East Coast is closed. Ridging built in in 1998 and Georges made it across, in mid-late September.

[AussieMark]

2004 was a el nino which started in September that year
sometimes it takes a while for the impact to be felt

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yes I'm 90% sure of this due to the pattern that recureved Florence and now Gordon. Look at the end runs on all the models all starting to show recurature.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_94.gif

Considereing this is going to be at a much lower Latitude I would not count it out yet..I expect pattern to change by that time...

[jusforsean]

This system is well on its way to being classified Tropical Storm Helene later today. Satellite imagery reveals very deep thunderstorm activity developed (nocturnal maxima) near, but mostly south and west of a circulation center near 13N. From satellite, the system already seems to be at least a 2.0 in Dvorak intensity estimates. I don't know what is the maximum that is allowed on a first-time estimate, but wouldn't be surprised to see a 2.0 estimate this morning. If not, definitely a 1.5.

There is not much to impede this system to continue strengthening strongly over the next few days with light shear values, associated with a westward moving ULL in the central Atlantic. SAL is not looking like a problem for this one with the explosive convection this morning as proof.

The track looks to take a more WNW-NW course after about 4 days, due to that ULL in the central Atlantic remaining stationary or possibly drop southward by the time the system reaches the area. Still way too early to tell for sure, though and would caution residents in the Lesser Antilles to start monitoring its progress. Conditions appear to favor a dangerous and powerful hurricane in several days.

I remember mentioning 2001 earlier with some of the "season cancel" posts ongoing. This one is following that year and we're not even done with September yet. Proves that we can't raise the "end" flag before September as is very common for the Atlantic basin to have very late seasons.

Who said season cancel?

Do you want a list?

I think at least in my case i dont post season cancels because its not over till the fat lady sings , i couldnt believe Wilma took down all of my haloween decorations there was fake webs everywhere with debris stuck in it pretty funny site but non the less I like to think of season cancel posts as wishcasting in a good way as well mabey not what the posters intended but a good way to look at it, just seeing a westerly track on a map with any storm makes me want to be sick!!

[Bailey1777]

When people say no worries you do realize the Islands exist right?

[cycloneye]

12:00z Full Fisk Image

Dont look now at this 12:00z image.