Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[craptacular]

402
SXXX50 KNHC 262045
AF304 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 31 KNHC
2037. 1708N 06738W 07316 0429 191 010 165 165 012 07777 0000000100
2038 1707N 06740W 07315 0431 191 012 165 165 013 07777 0000000100
2038. 1707N 06743W 07315 0430 197 012 165 165 013 07777 0000000100
2039 1706N 06746W 07316 0430 201 009 165 165 010 07777 0000000100
2039. 1706N 06748W 07315 0430 194 007 165 199 007 07777 0000000000
2040 1706N 06751W 07315 0430 191 007 165 203 008 07777 0000000000
2040. 1705N 06754W 07316 0430 188 009 165 207 010 07778 0000000000
2041 1705N 06756W 07315 0430 179 009 165 205 009 07776 0000000000
2041. 1704N 06759W 07316 0429 155 008 165 199 010 07776 0000000000
2042 1704N 06802W 07315 0430 150 010 163 177 011 07777 0000000000
2042. 1704N 06804W 07315 0430 157 008 161 179 008 07776 0000000000
2043 1705N 06807W 07316 0429 148 009 161 179 009 07776 0000000000
2043. 1705N 06810W 07316 0429 145 013 161 175 016 07776 0000000000
2044 1705N 06813W 07315 0428 139 018 161 181 018 07775 0000000000
2044. 1705N 06816W 07315 0429 130 018 161 179 018 07776 0000000000
2045 1705N 06818W 07315 0429 133 016 157 179 016 07776 0000000000
2045. 1705N 06821W 07315 0429 130 016 159 177 016 07776 0000000000
2046 1706N 06824W 07315 0430 114 014 157 183 015 07777 0000000000
2046. 1706N 06827W 07315 0429 116 013 155 185 014 07775 0000000000
2047 1706N 06830W 07316 0428 111 012 155 177 013 07775 0000000000

[cycloneye]

222
WTNT35 KNHC 262040
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 375 MILES...600 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
COULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE CENTER POSSIBLY RE-FORMS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS
997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N...71.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


798
WTNT25 KNHC 262043
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.8N 73.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.1N 75.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.4N 77.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.8N 79.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 28.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 71.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[gatorcane]

latest NHC advisory moves the center ENE.....

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 375 MILES...600 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
COULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE CENTER POSSIBLY RE-FORMS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS
997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N...71.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2006

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 71.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.8N 73.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.1N 75.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.4N 77.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.8N 79.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 28.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 71.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

776
WTNT45 KNHC 262105
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

ON A MISSION THAT FEATURED A SATCOM FAILURE...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS
WELL EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY POSITION. HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER AND HOW MUCH IS
DUE TO AN ACTUAL TRACK CHANGE IS UNCLEAR. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...AND A DROPWINDSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 50
KT. WHILE THE RE-FORMATION PUTS THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE
CONVECTION...ERNESTO IS STILL ENCOUNTERING NOTABLE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 295/11. WHILE THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE
REFORMATION OF THE CENTER REQUIRES SHIFTING THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE
TRACK ABOUT 50 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS
INCREASES THE THREAT TO HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS
DUBIOUS...AS THE 500 MB CENTER STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA.
AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
BROKEN BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ERNESTO TO TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN SPEED BETWEEN THE
SLOWER UKMET AND ECMWF AND THE FASTER NOGAPS. THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A
SLOW SPEED...SIMILAR TO BUT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY NECESSARY ON THE NEXT
ADVISORY DEPENDING ON ANY NEW JUMPS IN THE CENTER POSITION TONIGHT.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH
SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND
ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING
THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 105
KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...
AND THE STORM COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM
WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INTERACTION WITH LAND...AS ERNESTO
MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST IF IT GETS TOO CLOSE TO
HISPANIOLA OR CUBA.

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 15.9N 71.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 16.8N 73.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 18.1N 75.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 19.4N 77.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 20.8N 79.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 83.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 25.5N 86.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 28.0N 87.0W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[craptacular]

561
SXXX50 KNHC 262055
AF304 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 32 KNHC
2047. 1706N 06833W 07315 0425 105 013 157 173 015 07772 0000000000
2048 1706N 06835W 07315 0425 124 017 157 171 018 07771 0000000000
2048. 1707N 06838W 07316 0426 138 018 157 167 018 07773 0000000000
2049 1707N 06841W 07315 0428 153 018 157 157 020 07774 0000000000
2049. 1707N 06844W 07316 0426 169 020 153 153 023 07773 0000000000
2050 1707N 06847W 07317 0424 172 019 155 155 020 07773 0000000000
2050. 1707N 06849W 07308 0421 153 017 151 151 018 07761 0000000000
2051 1708N 06852W 07319 0424 157 017 153 153 019 07774 0000000000
2051. 1708N 06855W 07317 0425 179 022 155 155 024 07774 0000000000
2052 1708N 06857W 07314 0425 201 025 155 155 025 07770 0000000000
2052. 1708N 06900W 07316 0422 205 027 155 155 029 07769 0000000000
2053 1708N 06903W 07316 0422 208 029 155 155 030 07770 0000000000
2053. 1708N 06905W 07315 0420 201 024 155 159 025 07767 0000000000
2054 1709N 06908W 07315 0419 201 019 157 161 020 07766 0000000000
2054. 1709N 06911W 07316 0419 205 022 157 157 023 07766 0000000000
2055 1709N 06913W 07315 0420 201 024 155 155 028 07766 0000000000
2055. 1709N 06916W 07314 0421 203 026 155 155 027 07766 0000000000
2056 1709N 06919W 07316 0422 207 022 155 155 024 07769 0000000000
2056. 1709N 06921W 07324 0423 191 020 151 151 023 07780 0000000000
2057 1710N 06924W 07306 0427 161 012 149 149 018 07765 0000000000

[cycloneye]

[craptacular]

413
SXXX50 KNHC 262105
AF304 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 33 KNHC
2057. 1710N 06927W 07315 0419 166 019 155 155 019 07766 0000000000
2058 1710N 06929W 07317 0423 173 019 155 155 020 07771 0000000000
2058. 1710N 06932W 07314 0421 166 019 155 155 020 07767 0000000000
2059 1710N 06934W 07315 0422 161 017 155 155 019 07769 0000000000
2059. 1710N 06937W 07315 0422 167 018 155 155 018 07768 0000000000
2100 1711N 06940W 07315 0421 173 017 155 155 018 07768 0000000000
2100. 1711N 06942W 07316 0421 170 016 155 155 016 07768 0000000000
2101 1711N 06945W 07315 0421 162 016 155 155 017 07768 0000000000
2101. 1711N 06948W 07316 0422 160 014 155 155 015 07769 0000000000
2102 1711N 06950W 07315 0422 147 013 155 155 014 07768 0000000000
2102. 1711N 06953W 07316 0422 140 016 155 155 017 07770 0000000000
2103 1712N 06956W 07305 0422 144 016 153 153 016 07759 0000000000
2103. 1712N 06958W 07317 0417 143 018 153 153 020 07766 0000000000
2104 1712N 07001W 07248 0425 141 020 149 149 021 07704 0000000000
2104. 1712N 07003W 06988 0413 135 020 131 131 021 07431 0000000000
2105 1712N 07006W 06718 0387 137 019 117 117 020 07197 0000000000
2105. 1712N 07008W 06431 0362 142 016 099 099 016 06886 0000000000
2106 1712N 07011W 06101 0339 136 015 083 083 016 06533 0000000000
2106. 1713N 07013W 05705 0319 138 015 061 061 017 06116 0000000000
2107 1713N 07016W 05298 0292 142 017 041 041 018 05680 0000000000

Descending.

[cycloneye]

531
URNT11 KNHC 262036
97779 20354 70172 67500 73100 99005 66683 /5761
RMK AF304 0405A ERNESTO OB 05

[craptacular]

788
SXXX50 KNHC 262115
AF304 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 34 KNHC
2107. 1713N 07018W 04898 0264 144 021 023 023 024 05250 0000000000
2108 1713N 07021W 04506 0232 146 028 007 007 028 04826 0000000000
2108. 1713N 07024W 04126 0220 140 026 009 009 027 04407 0000000000
2109 1713N 07026W 03811 0206 133 026 012 012 027 04069 0000000000
2109. 1714N 07029W 03421 0179 131 032 028 028 036 03650 0000000000
2110 1714N 07031W 03039 0152 119 036 046 046 038 03241 0000000100
2110. 1714N 07034W 02699 0125 113 037 060 060 039 02873 0000000100
2111 1714N 07036W 02448 0107 119 037 082 082 039 02603 0000000100
2111. 1714N 07039W 02171 0093 117 042 102 102 044 02307 0000000100
2112 1714N 07041W 01845 0074 110 048 112 112 049 01960 0000000100
2112. 1714N 07044W 01581 0060 107 049 126 126 050 01681 0000000100
2113 1713N 07045W 01520 0052 106 047 138 138 048 01612 0000000100
2113. 1712N 07046W 01526 0048 110 041 146 146 042 01613 0000000100
2114 1710N 07047W 01525 0047 107 038 150 150 039 01612 0000000100
2114. 1709N 07048W 01528 0046 106 042 142 142 044 01613 0000000100
2115 1708N 07049W 01521 0042 108 043 132 132 047 01604 0000000100
2115. 1707N 07051W 01529 0043 106 040 130 130 045 01612 0000000100
2116 1705N 07052W 01517 0042 100 041 128 128 042 01598 0000000100
2116. 1704N 07053W 01528 0043 091 042 132 132 045 01610 0000000100
2117 1703N 07055W 01521 0046 100 034 132 132 036 01607 0000000100

Cruising at 1500 meters.

[craptacular]

159
URNT11 KNHC 262115
97779 21130 70172 70800 15300 11041 14//8 /2502
RMK AF304 0405A ERNESTO OB 06

[WindRunner]

OK . . . plane descending now. Already a 47kt gust at op alt.

[cycloneye]

Thunder and WindRunner,let's not post the google graphics because of the server problems we have.

[WindRunner]

Exactly what I was thinking Luis. If we get over 350 people on for this, I'm really worried about the board later in the season.

[whereverwx]

But they're hosted on ImageShack, so they don't use Storm2k's bandwidth. Also, thumbnails are always nice, and IIRC, they don't use any bandwidth.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 262115
AF304 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 34 KNHC
2107. 1713N 07018W 04898 0264 144 021 023 023 024 05250 0000000000
2108 1713N 07021W 04506 0232 146 028 007 007 028 04826 0000000000
2108. 1713N 07024W 04126 0220 140 026 009 009 027 04407 0000000000
2109 1713N 07026W 03811 0206 133 026 012 012 027 04069 0000000000
2109. 1714N 07029W 03421 0179 131 032 028 028 036 03650 0000000000
2110 1714N 07031W 03039 0152 119 036 046 046 038 03241 0000000100
2110. 1714N 07034W 02699 0125 113 037 060 060 039 02873 0000000100
2111 1714N 07036W 02448 0107 119 037 082 082 039 02603 0000000100
2111. 1714N 07039W 02171 0093 117 042 102 102 044 02307 0000000100
2112 1714N 07041W 01845 0074 110 048 112 112 049 01960 0000000100
2112. 1714N 07044W 01581 0060 107 049 126 126 050 01681 0000000100
2113 1713N 07045W 01520 0052 106 047 138 138 048 01612 0000000100
2113. 1712N 07046W 01526 0048 110 041 146 146 042 01613 0000000100
2114 1710N 07047W 01525 0047 107 038 150 150 039 01612 0000000100
2114. 1709N 07048W 01528 0046 106 042 142 142 044 01613 0000000100
2115 1708N 07049W 01521 0042 108 043 132 132 047 01604 0000000100
2115. 1707N 07051W 01529 0043 106 040 130 130 045 01612 0000000100
2116 1705N 07052W 01517 0042 100 041 128 128 042 01598 0000000100
2116. 1704N 07053W 01528 0043 091 042 132 132 045 01610 0000000100
2117 1703N 07055W 01521 0046 100 034 132 132 036 01607 0000000100

[craptacular]

851
SXXX50 KNHC 262125
AF304 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 35 KNHC
2117. 1701N 07056W 01524 0044 110 042 142 142 048 01608 0000000100
2118 1700N 07057W 01523 0043 112 040 150 150 041 01607 0000000100
2118. 1659N 07059W 01524 0041 113 040 154 154 042 01605 0000000100
2119 1658N 07100W 01529 0041 104 046 148 148 050 01610 0000000100
2119. 1656N 07101W 01526 0040 101 048 134 134 049 01606 0000000100
2120 1655N 07103W 01516 0041 109 049 148 148 053 01597 0000000100
2120. 1654N 07104W 01527 0039 113 045 154 154 047 01606 0000000000
2121 1653N 07105W 01522 0038 108 045 148 148 049 01600 0000000000
2121. 1651N 07107W 01525 0036 107 047 148 148 048 01601 0000000000
2122 1650N 07108W 01519 0035 116 046 154 154 048 01594 0000000000
2122. 1649N 07109W 01531 0035 112 048 154 154 049 01605 0000000000
2123 1648N 07110W 01522 0032 114 047 154 569 047 01595 0000000100
2123. 1646N 07111W 01524 0031 112 044 150 213 045 01595 0000000100
2124 1645N 07113W 01531 0029 107 039 142 100 040 01600 0000000100
2124. 1643N 07113W 01517 0028 100 042 138 100 046 01585 0000000100
2125 1642N 07114W 01527 0027 107 047 136 100 051 01595 0000000100
2125. 1641N 07115W 01522 0027 117 045 150 100 049 01589 0000000100
2126 1639N 07116W 01524 0025 116 043 150 100 043 01589 0000000100
2126. 1638N 07117W 01523 0024 118 045 150 100 046 01587 0000000100
2127 1637N 07118W 01524 0023 122 042 154 100 043 01588 0000000100

[cycloneye]

But they're hosted on ImageShack, so they don't use Storm2k's bandwidth. Also, thumbnails are always nice, and IIRC, they don't use any bandwidth.

Oh yes calamity,no problem posting those small ones like you do many times.

[SouthFloridawx]

OK . . . plane descending now. Already a 47kt gust at op alt.

2112. 1714N 07044W 01581 0060 107 049 126 126 050 01681 0000000100
2113 1713N 07045W 01520 0052 106 047 138 138 048 01612 0000000100
2113. 1712N 07046W 01526 0048 110 041 146 146 042 01613 0000000100
2114 1710N 07047W 01525 0047 107 038 150 150 039 01612 0000000100
2114. 1709N 07048W 01528 0046 106 042 142 142 044 01613 0000000100
2115 1708N 07049W 01521 0042 108 043 132 132 047 01604 0000000100
2115. 1707N 07051W 01529 0043 106 040 130 130 045 01612 0000000100
2116 1705N 07052W 01517 0042 100 041 128 128 042 01598 0000000100
2116. 1704N 07053W 01528 0043 091 042 132 132 045 01610 0000000100
2117 1703N 07055W 01521 0046 100 034 132 132 036 01607 0000000100

[SouthFloridawx]

AF304 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 35 KNHC
2117. 1701N 07056W 01524 0044 110 042 142 142 048 01608 0000000100
2118 1700N 07057W 01523 0043 112 040 150 150 041 01607 0000000100
2118. 1659N 07059W 01524 0041 113 040 154 154 042 01605 0000000100
2119 1658N 07100W 01529 0041 104 046 148 148 050 01610 0000000100
2119. 1656N 07101W 01526 0040 101 048 134 134 049 01606 0000000100
2120 1655N 07103W 01516 0041 109 049 148 148 053 01597 0000000100
2120. 1654N 07104W 01527 0039 113 045 154 154 047 01606 0000000000
2121 1653N 07105W 01522 0038 108 045 148 148 049 01600 0000000000
2121. 1651N 07107W 01525 0036 107 047 148 148 048 01601 0000000000
2122 1650N 07108W 01519 0035 116 046 154 154 048 01594 0000000000
2122. 1649N 07109W 01531 0035 112 048 154 154 049 01605 0000000000
2123 1648N 07110W 01522 0032 114 047 154 569 047 01595 0000000100
2123. 1646N 07111W 01524 0031 112 044 150 213 045 01595 0000000100
2124 1645N 07113W 01531 0029 107 039 142 100 040 01600 0000000100
2124. 1643N 07113W 01517 0028 100 042 138 100 046 01585 0000000100
2125 1642N 07114W 01527 0027 107 047 136 100 051 01595 0000000100
2125. 1641N 07115W 01522 0027 117 045 150 100 049 01589 0000000100
2126 1639N 07116W 01524 0025 116 043 150 100 043 01589 0000000100
2126. 1638N 07117W 01523 0024 118 045 150 100 046 01587 0000000100
2127 1637N 07118W 01524 0023 122 042 154 100 043 01588 0000000100

Steady 40's and 50's