Tropical Storm Chris

[LightningInTheEye]

In addition to what Vortex has just said, the latest GFS computer model also seems to suggest a threat to Florida. It can be found on this site... http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My latest thinking...

There is two ULLs one at 75 to 70 west then another at 55 west. The one at 70 west is backing westward helping reduce shear over the cyclone...The tutt at 55 west is helping to form a outflow jet on the southern side. Shear looks to be down to 2 to 5 knots over the system...With the shear droping very fast at 20 knots to the eastern side. The Cdo has built over the center with deep convection...In yes it has gained the fist. Everything looks to be good to go.

1# Faverable upper levels
2# Little land
3# outflow jets
4# convection over the center

I think this will be north of PR...Then north of Hati/DR.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Impressive! Banding features are appearing nicely on SAT. Right now Chris appears to be strengthening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

[BUD]

8/2 NAM doesnt look good for south florida and eventually the Gulf coast. Here's the latest run just out from the NAM.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Yep,but taking it a little more north.

[max]

Impressive! Banding features are appearing nicely on SAT. Right now Chris appears to be strengthening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Chris looks a lot different tonight then it did. It has more of a scary shape to it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like some storms we seen last yera with the ball. Also the lower clouds are taking on a chainsaw shape.

[max]

Matt-hurricanewatcher I have to agree. I don't like this one bit

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't understand why the nhc is taking it so low this year. Last year they jumped alot faster on storms. Its hurting them...I see a very good RIC set up setting up right now.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Looks really small compared to other landmasses, but then again him being small will only help him strengthen.

[Normandy]

Look at the loops and use the trop forecast points....the center is on the southern edge of the convection

[max]

Matt-hurricanewatcher I don't understand it either. It could save a lot of people if they made sure they kept up to date with the strengthening of these storms.

[max]

I am not sure why but this is beginning to remind me of Andrew. I could be wrong though. I can't remember that much about Andrew. Sorry.

[mempho]

Don't want to sound stupid but on the last floater ir is Chris trying to form an eye?

I see the exact thing you do but I don't think Chris is trying to form a eye. At least I hope not.

I think everyone is seeing this "phenomenon." Hopefully, this is not indicative of some type of rapid deepening.

[Brent]

It's got that look.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Hurricane tomorrow defintely looking like that.

[max]

Do you remember the phenomenon with Hurricane Wilma? That was crazy and scary!

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's got that look.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Hurricane tomorrow defintely looking like that.

I agree. Probably 70mph+ at 5am.

[max]

Brett its amazing how quickly things can change!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it happens it happens got to be smarter then the cane.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm not sure who said it, but I think someone got their wish for Chris to become some big hurricane.

[max]

I hope not. We don't need a big hurricane anywhere.