Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Aquawind]

154
SXXX50 KNHC 262335
AF304 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 48 KNHC
2327. 1706N 07239W 01519 0042 070 048 158 100 049 01601 0000000100
2328 1707N 07241W 01520 0042 071 045 158 100 045 01602 0000000100
2328. 1708N 07242W 01523 0042 077 043 154 100 043 01604 0000000100
2329 1709N 07244W 01524 0043 073 044 142 100 044 01607 0000000100
2329. 1711N 07245W 01513 0043 074 047 152 100 048 01596 0000000100
2330 1712N 07246W 01521 0045 075 044 156 100 046 01606 0000000100
2330. 1713N 07248W 01519 0046 082 038 162 100 039 01606 0000000100
2331 1714N 07249W 01521 0047 080 037 162 100 038 01608 0000000100
2331. 1715N 07251W 01520 0048 081 038 162 100 039 01608 0000000100
2332 1717N 07252W 01519 0048 084 038 164 100 039 01607 0000000100
2332. 1718N 07253W 01519 0049 084 038 162 100 038 01609 0000000100
2333 1719N 07255W 01520 0050 083 037 164 100 037 01610 0000000100
2333. 1720N 07256W 01522 0050 085 038 174 100 038 01612 0000000100
2334 1722N 07258W 01518 0051 087 039 178 100 040 01608 0000000100
2334. 1723N 07259W 01519 0052 085 041 174 100 042 01611 0000000100
2335 1724N 07301W 01523 0052 082 042 168 100 042 01615 0000000100
2335. 1725N 07302W 01517 0053 082 042 166 100 043 01610 0000000100
2336 1727N 07304W 01521 0054 082 043 166 100 044 01615 0000000100
2336. 1728N 07305W 01521 0055 082 041 166 100 041 01616 0000000100
2337 1729N 07306W 01518 0055 079 040 168 100 041 01613 0000000100

[clfenwi]

from the northwest edge of the storm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: ERNESTO (05L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 16
Time: 2339Z
Latitude: 17.6°N
Longitude: 73.2°W
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 5000 feet
Flight level wind: ENE (70°) @ 36 mph
Temperature: 64°F
Dewpoint: 50°F
Weather: Unknown
850mb height: 5000 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[clfenwi]

Supplementary Vortex Data Message
Inbound Ob #1: 15.3°N 070.6°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: S (180°) @ 29 mph
Inbound Ob #2: 15.4°N 070.8°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: S (190°) @ 35 mph
Inbound Ob #3: 15.6°N 071.0°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: S (180°) @ 36 mph
Inbound Ob #4: 15.8°N 071.2°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: S (180°) @ 30 mph
Inbound Ob #5: 16.0°N 071.4°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: S (180°) @ 33 mph
Inbound Ob #6: 16.2°N 071.6°W; 850mb height: 4800 feet; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: S (170°) @ 37 mph
Inbound Ob #7: 16.3°N 071.8°W; 850mb height: 4800 feet; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: S (180°) @ 38 mph

Max flight level wind (Inbound): 44 mph at 16.4°N 071.8°W
First inbound ob surface wind: NA

Outbound Ob #1: 16.6°N 072.1°W; 850mb height: 4800 feet; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: E (90°) @ 60 mph
Outbound Ob #2: 16.8°N 072.3°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: E (80°) @ 59 mph
Outbound Ob #3: 16.9°N 072.5°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: E (80°) @ 52 mph
Outbound Ob #4: 17.1°N 072.7°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: ENE (70°) @ 52 mph
Outbound Ob #5: 17.3°N 072.9°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: E (80°) @ 44 mph
Outbound Ob #6: 17.5°N 073.1°W; 850mb height: 5000 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: E (80°) @ 47 mph
Max flight level wind (Outbound): 66 mph at 16.5°N 072.0°W
Last outbound ob surface wind: NA
Storm Name: ERNESTO (05L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 17

[clfenwi]

end of mission...next mission is scheduled to take off at 0300Z / 11 PM EDT.

SXXX50 KNHC 262345
AF304 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 49 KNHC
2337. 1730N 07308W 01523 0055 074 045 168 100 046 01618 0000000100
2338 1732N 07309W 01524 0058 076 041 166 100 043 01621 0000000100
2338. 1733N 07311W 01520 0058 077 037 170 100 038 01618 0000000100
2339 1734N 07312W 01521 0062 075 035 174 100 037 01623 0000000100
2339. 1736N 07314W 01515 0063 072 031 176 100 033 01618 0000000100
2340 1737N 07315W 01515 0063 071 032 176 100 033 01618 0000000100
2340. 1739N 07316W 01529 0066 077 031 174 100 032 01635 0000000100
2341 1740N 07315W 01731 0078 068 024 162 100 026 01849 0000000100
2341. 1739N 07314W 02018 0095 054 020 140 100 021 02154 0000000100
2342 1738N 07312W 02324 0108 063 022 124 100 024 02479 0000000100
2342. 1738N 07310W 02665 0126 069 023 102 100 024 02840 0000000100
2343 1738N 07308W 02974 0145 069 026 086 086 027 03168 0000000100
2343. 1737N 07307W 03180 0165 065 025 078 078 027 03395 0000000100
2344 1737N 07305W 03134 0170 069 024 080 080 025 03353 0000000100
2344. 1736N 07302W 03052 0168 066 022 072 072 022 03270 0000000100
2345 1736N 07300W 03028 0170 067 021 074 074 022 03248 0000000100
2345. 1736N 07257W 03028 0173 067 023 078 078 024 03251 0000000100
2346 1735N 07255W 03029 0172 064 024 074 074 024 03251 0000000100
2346. 1735N 07252W 03023 0175 064 024 080 080 026 03248 0000000100
2347 1734N 07250W 03026 0175 062 025 084 084 025 03251 0000000100

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO ABOUT TO MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA...VERY
HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 310 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES JAMAICA AND WESTERN HAITI ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS
997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES IN HIGHER
TERRAIN...ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
ALSO...THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI

[crab_storm]

the map looks messed up. shift back to the west?

[Thatsmrhurricane]

120HR VT 31/1800Z 28.0N 87.0W 105 KT

The map above is left of the guidence at 120HR. 2887 is S of the FL/AL state line.

Man this thing is cooking!

[frederic79]

This map doesn't match the 5PM official forecast map. I know it's from Weather Underground, but does it reflect the current NHC thinking or is it an independant opinion?

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Got to go with some independent thinking for that map. Here is the link from NHC:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day

[Steve Cosby]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...

Did you all notice this? "A tropical storm warning is recommended..."

This follows the statement about warnings in Cuba.

Wouldn't be interesting if NHC gets better cooperation from the Cubans over the Dominican Republic?

[BlizzzardMan]

As of now, that is still the map from 5PM from NHC. The map posted above is for 8PM. Weather Underground had the same map posted at 5PM as well and for some reason has changed the track back to the west like it was earlier today. I'm waiting for NHC to update there map for the 8PM advisory. Will it be the same as the weather underground map above? They're taking a while with this one. Maybe the center is redeveloping again and this time it's back to the original track. We'll find out I guess.

[mtm4319]

As of now, that is still the map from 5PM from NHC. The map posted above is for 8PM. Weather Underground had the same map posted at 5PM as well and for some reason has changed the track back to the west like it was earlier today. I'm waiting for NHC to update there map for the 8PM advisory. Will it be the same as the weather underground map above? They're taking a while with this one. Maybe the center is redeveloping again and this time it's back to the original track. We'll find out I guess.

The forecast track maps aren't updated for intermediate advisories - only the complete ones (5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm).

[BlizzzardMan]

As of now, that is still the map from 5PM from NHC. The map posted above is for 8PM. Weather Underground had the same map posted at 5PM as well and for some reason has changed the track back to the west like it was earlier today. I'm waiting for NHC to update there map for the 8PM advisory. Will it be the same as the weather underground map above? They're taking a while with this one. Maybe the center is redeveloping again and this time it's back to the original track. We'll find out I guess.

The forecast track maps aren't updated for intermediate advisories - only the complete ones (5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm).

I see. Thanks

[stormspotter]

As of now, that is still the map from 5PM from NHC. The map posted above is for 8PM. Weather Underground had the same map posted at 5PM as well and for some reason has changed the track back to the west like it was earlier today. I'm waiting for NHC to update there map for the 8PM advisory. Will it be the same as the weather underground map above? They're taking a while with this one. Maybe the center is redeveloping again and this time it's back to the original track. We'll find out I guess.

This is the updated.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_5day.html

[Brent]

As of now, that is still the map from 5PM from NHC. The map posted above is for 8PM. Weather Underground had the same map posted at 5PM as well and for some reason has changed the track back to the west like it was earlier today. I'm waiting for NHC to update there map for the 8PM advisory. Will it be the same as the weather underground map above? They're taking a while with this one. Maybe the center is redeveloping again and this time it's back to the original track. We'll find out I guess.

This is the updated.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_5day.html

No, something is wrong. That is the 11am track. It should look like this(only with the 8pm information):



11am track: http://i26.photobucket.com/albums/c131/ ... rnesto.gif

See how they look exactly the same?

[cycloneye]

My best guess is that NHC will leave at 60 mph the intensity in the 11 PM Advisory.

[Dean4Storms]

My best guess is that NHC will leave at 60 mph the intensity in the 11 PM Advisory.

I think you be right on Cycloneye. I don't see any real defining evidence that it has become better organized since 8pm. I think they leave the track pretty much alone as well.

[cycloneye]

696
WTNT25 KNHC 270248
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 72.7W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 72.7W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 72.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 74.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.2N 76.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.8N 80.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 72.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[JonathanBelles]

it now weakens after cuba

[seaswing]

it now weakens after cuba

For the interim...