Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...ERNESTO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
285 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS NEAR
WESTERN HAITI AND JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY
PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
UNCHANGED AT 997 MB. THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WERE 56 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE.
SINCE THE PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND SINCE THE AIRCRAFT MIGHT NOT HAVE
MEASURED THE MAXIMUM WIND...AND CONSIDERING 00 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS 3.5 OR 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 50 KT. SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN PULSATING NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT RECENTLY IT HAS
EXPANDED AND BECOME MORE PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER. THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
RETREAT WESTWARD...AND THE RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
TO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY LESSENING. ANOTHER AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO IN A
FEW HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/12...ALTHOUGH WITH ONLY
INFRARED IMAGERY THIS REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ERNESTO WILL MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE
TOWARD AND THEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. AFTER REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE AS STEERING CURRENTS
SLACKEN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WITH SOLUTIONS AS FAR WEST
AS THE GFDN THAT TAKES ERNESTO TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF...AND AS FAR
EAST AS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS SHOWN BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE
NOGAPS. IN THE MIDDLE BUT SLOWER IS THE GFDL AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND THAT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT THESE LONG RANGES AND IS JUST NUDGED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.

A SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND...PRIMARILY CUBA. IF THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO TAKES A PATH JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK...IT COULD SPEND QUITE A BIT OF TIME OVER CUBA AND WEAKEN
SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 24 AND 48 HOURS FROM NOW. HOWEVER...IF
THE CENTER TAKES A PATH FARTHER LEFT IT WOULD SPEND VERY LITTLE
TIME OVER CUBA. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME INTERACTION WITH CUBA...BUT IT SHOWS
ONLY A SLIGHTLY LESSER INTENSITY OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. IT IS IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...TO REITERATE THAT ERNESTO
COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 16.8N 72.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 17.8N 74.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 19.2N 76.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 20.5N 78.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 21.8N 80.6W 85 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 84.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[clfenwi]

New mission on deck

AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 01 KNHC
0253. 1742N 06448W 00000 0001 360 000 260 218 000 00000 0000000000
0254 1742N 06448W 00000 0001 360 000 260 218 000 00000 0000000000
0254. 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 260 218 000 00000 0000000000
0255 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 260 218 000 00000 0000000000
0255. 1742N 06448W 00000 0001 360 000 260 222 000 00000 0000000000
0256 1742N 06448W 00000 0001 360 000 260 224 000 00000 0000000000
0256. 1742N 06448W 00000 0001 360 000 260 226 000 00000 0000000000
0257 1742N 06448W 00000 0001 360 000 260 224 000 00000 0000000000
0257. 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 260 220 000 00000 0000000000
0258 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 260 224 000 00000 0000000000
0258. 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 260 222 000 00000 0000000000
0259 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 260 224 000 00000 0000000000
0259. 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 260 224 000 00000 0000000000
0300 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 260 224 000 00000 0000000000
0300. 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 260 224 000 00000 0000000000
0301 1742N 06448W 00000 0002 360 000 260 224 000 00000 0000000000
0301. 1742N 06448W 00000 0001 360 000 260 224 000 00000 0000000000
0302 1742N 06448W 00000 5001 360 000 260 224 000 00000 0000000000
0302. 1742N 06448W 00000 0001 360 000 262 230 000 00000 0000000000
0303 1742N 06447W 00000 0001 360 000 266 228 000 00000 0000000000[/b]

[rnbaida]

where do you guys get the recon data from?

[brunota2003]

where do you guys get the recon data from?

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

[rnbaida]

500
SXXX50 KNHC 270311
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 02 KNHC
0303. 1742N 06447W 00000 0000 360 000 264 228 000 00000 0000000000
0304 1742N 06448W 00000 5000 360 000 264 226 000 00000 0000000000
0304. 1742N 06448W 00000 5001 360 000 264 226 000 00000 0000000000
0305 1742N 06448W 00000 5000 360 000 264 226 000 00000 0000000000
0305. 1742N 06448W 00000 0000 360 000 260 228 000 00000 0000000000
0306 1742N 06448W 00000 5001 360 000 260 226 000 00000 0000000000
0306. 1742N 06448W 00000 5002 360 000 260 224 000 00000 0000000000
0307 1742N 06448W 00000 5003 360 000 256 224 000 00000 0000000000
0307. 1742N 06448W 00000 5004 360 000 256 230 000 00000 0000000000
0308 1742N 06448W 00000 5006 360 000 256 230 000 00000 0000000000
0308. 1742N 06448W 00000 5007 360 000 256 230 000 00000 0000000000
0309 1742N 06449W 00000 5009 360 000 256 230 000 00000 0000000000
0309. 1742N 06449W 00002 5011 360 000 256 230 000 00000 0000000000
0310 1742N 06449W 00003 5013 360 000 256 230 000 00000 0000000000
0310. 1742N 06449W 00003 5013 360 000 256 230 000 00000 0000000000
0311 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 256 224 000 00000 0000000000
0311. 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 256 208 000 00000 0000000000
0312 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 252 216 000 00000 0000000000
0312. 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 256 218 000 00000 0000000000
0313 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 252 214 000 00000 0000000000
;

[rnbaida]

445
SXXX50 KNHC 270321
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 03 KNHC
0313. 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 252 214 000 00000 0000000000
0314 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 254 214 000 00000 0000000000
0314. 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 250 212 000 00000 0000000000
0315 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 250 216 000 00000 0000000000
0315. 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 250 216 000 00000 0000000000
0316 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 250 214 000 00000 0000000000
0316. 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 250 212 000 00000 0000000000
0317 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 252 214 000 00000 0000000000
0317. 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 254 214 000 00000 0000000000
0318 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 256 214 000 00000 0000000000
0318. 1742N 06449W 00004 5014 360 000 256 216 000 00000 0000000000
0319 1742N 06449W 00006 5016 038 001 252 230 003 00000 0000000000
0319. 1742N 06448W 00078 5005 084 009 260 234 014 00083 0000000000
0320 1742N 06447W 00325 0023 089 013 244 226 014 00360 0000000000
0320. 1741N 06446W 00613 0039 089 016 224 188 017 00673 0000000000
0321 1741N 06444W 00881 0061 096 014 212 130 015 00964 0000000000
0321. 1740N 06443W 01191 0080 101 012 186 146 013 01303 0000000000
0322 1739N 06442W 01480 0094 093 011 172 110 011 01609 0000000000
0322. 1738N 06444W 01774 0110 087 012 154 102 013 01920 0000000000
0323 1737N 06446W 02046 0125 087 013 146 048 013 02207 0000000000

[rnbaida]

967
SXXX50 KNHC 270331
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 04 KNHC
0323. 1737N 06447W 02328 0138 092 012 132 044 012 02508 0000000000
0324 1736N 06449W 02593 0153 095 012 116 074 013 02789 0000000000
0324. 1736N 06451W 02841 0169 090 011 104 056 013 03053 0000000000
0325 1735N 06453W 03082 0185 090 012 086 048 012 03311 0000000000
0325. 1735N 06455W 03311 0203 091 011 070 052 012 03559 0000000000
0326 1734N 06457W 03533 0219 089 011 058 034 011 03797 0000000000
0326. 1733N 06459W 03752 0232 094 009 046 024 010 04029 0000000000
0327 1733N 06501W 03957 0246 098 010 032 018 011 04249 0000000000
0327. 1732N 06502W 04146 0253 099 011 022 008 012 04451 0000000000
0328 1732N 06504W 04342 0239 108 010 010 001 010 04660 0000000000
0328. 1731N 06506W 04515 0251 102 011 004 017 012 04846 0000000000
0329 1730N 06508W 04682 0271 104 011 007 029 013 05032 0000000000
0329. 1730N 06510W 04883 0291 125 008 019 051 009 05254 0000000000
0330 1729N 06512W 05031 0301 122 010 029 051 010 05413 0000000000
0330. 1729N 06514W 05180 0311 122 012 039 059 012 05572 0000000000
0331 1728N 06517W 05326 0321 126 012 049 071 013 05729 0000000000
0331. 1727N 06519W 05467 0330 138 011 057 081 011 05880 0000000000
0332 1727N 06521W 05495 0332 140 010 061 085 010 05910 0000000000
0332. 1726N 06523W 05491 0332 140 013 057 091 013 05906 0000000000
0333 1725N 06526W 05490 0333 142 012 059 091 013 05905 0000000000
;

[miamicanes177]

plane has taken off

[clfenwi]

Plane got off the ground at 0319 and it's about 450 nautical miles from there to the center of Ernesto... about 1.5 hours flight time, so they should be down to operational altitude by 0530Z (1:30 AM EDT) and have a fix by 0600Z (2:00 AM EDT). Close run thing to get it in time for the advisory though.

LATER, AFTER DOING SOME CLOSER CALCULATION: They'll probably have a fix right around 2 AM... doubt they would hold the advisory for it, however.

[mtm4319]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

897
SXXX50 KNHC 270341
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 05 KNHC
0333. 1725N 06528W 05485 0335 148 011 059 087 011 05903 0000000000
0334 1724N 06531W 05486 0334 149 009 061 093 010 05903 0000000000
0334. 1723N 06533W 05484 0335 153 009 061 087 010 05902 0000000000
0335 1722N 06536W 05487 0333 152 009 061 081 010 05902 0000000000
0335. 1722N 06538W 05487 0333 140 009 061 087 011 05903 0000000000
0336 1721N 06541W 05485 0334 139 010 059 077 011 05901 0000000000
0336. 1720N 06543W 05487 0334 141 010 061 085 010 05903 0000000000
0337 1719N 06546W 05486 0332 145 010 061 095 011 05901 0000000000
0337. 1718N 06548W 05486 0331 137 011 061 089 012 05900 0000000000
0338 1718N 06551W 05487 0332 139 011 059 087 012 05901 0000000000
0338. 1717N 06553W 0M;g66&GVvVV
0339 1716N 06556W 05487 0332 148 012 055 095 012 05902 0000000000
0339. 1715N 06558W 05486 0333 148 012 055 097 012 05901 0000000000
0340 1715N 06601W 05487 0332 146 013 055 097 013 05901 0000000000
0340. 1714N 06603W 05486 0332 151 013 055 103 013 05900 0000000000
0341 1713N 06606W 05487 0332 149 013 055 105 013 05902 0000000000
0341. 1712N 06608W 05486 0332 151 013 055 103 013 05901 0000000000
0342 1712N 06611W 05486 0331 156 013 055 099 013 05900 0000000000
0342. 1711N 06613W 05487 0330 153 013 055 101 014 05899 0000000000
0343 1710N 06616W 05486 0331 148 014 055 097 014 05900 0000000000
;

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

036
SXXX50 KNHC 270351
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 06 KNHC
0343. 1709N 06618W 05487 0330 157 013 055 099 014 05899 0000000000
0344 1708N 06621W 05487 0329 156 014 053 105 014 05899 0000000000
0344. 1708N 06623W 05486 0331 159 014 051 105 014 05900 0000000000
0345 1707N 06626W 05486 0331 158 015 051 105 015 05899 0000000000
0345. 1706N 06628W 05487 0330 159 016 051 107 016 05899 0000000000
0346 1705N 06631W 05486 0331 158 016 051 107 016 05900 0000000000
0346. 1705N 06633W 05486 0331 162 016 051 109 016 05900 0000000000
0347 1704N 06636W 05486 0332 166 017 051 109 017 05900 0000000000
0347. 1703N 06638W 05487 0332 159 016 051 105 017 05902 0000000000
0348 1702N 06641W 05486 0331 151 016 051 103 016 05899 0000000000
0348. 1702N 06643W 05487 0331 155 016 051 105 016 05901 0000000000
0349 1701N 06646W 05486 0331 159 018 051 107 018 05899 0000000000
0349. 1700N 06648W 05487 0330 158 018 051 107 018 05900 0000000000
0350 1659N 06650W 05486 0330 160 019 051 107 019 05899 0000000000
0350. 1658N 06653W 05487 0331 160 019 051 109 019 05901 0000000000
0351 1658N 06655W 05486 0329 156 019 051 109 019 05898 0000000000
0351. 1657N 06658W 05486 0330 158 020 051 109 020 05899 0000000000
0352 1656N 06700W 05486 0329 159 020 051 109 020 05898 0000000000
0352. 1655N 06703W 05486 0328 160 019 053 107 020 05897 0000000000
0353 1655N 06705W 05488 0329 157 019 055 107 019 05899 0000000000
;

[mtm4319]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Must be sending them every 20 instead of the normal 10 minutes.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I thnk something wrong...Its been 25 minutes.

[craptacular]

It's not the same plane as this afternoon's flight, either.

[Thunder44]

That plane had a satcom problem yesterday afternoon according to TPC.

[cycloneye]

This afternoon was AF304.This early morning mission is AF303.The question is if the AF303 is also having the same problem as the AF304 afternoon mission.

[Aquawind]

That's old