Tropical Storm Chris

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

60 knots at .8 is 48 knots for the surface.

[dwsqos2]

918
UZNT13 KNHC 020623
XXAA 52068 99193 70615 04391 99015 26625 10537 00136 25217 11036
92818 20816 13046 85547 17200 13543 88999 77999
31313 09608 80613
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 06
62626 SPL 1928N06156W 0616 MBL WND 11040 AEV 20604 DLM WND 12542
015854 WL150 11037 082 =
XXBB 52068 99193 70615 04391 00015 26625 11951 21605 22850 17200
33843 16400
21212 00015 10537 11996 10536 22981 11543 33934 12047 44854 13543
55843 13544
31313 09608 80613
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 06
62626 SPL 1928N06156W 0616 MBL WND 11040 AEV 20604 DLM WND 12542
015854 WL150 11037 082 =


37 knots at the surface

[clfenwi]

979
URNT11 KNHC 020616
97779 06124 40192 61508 15300 14042 15158 /2546
RMK AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 05

42 knots estimated at the surface

That's a flight level wind... the surface wind is encoded in a "4" group.. here's the decode of that ob...

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: CHRIS (03L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 05
Time: 0612Z
Latitude: 19.2°N
Longitude: 61.5°W
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 5000 feet
Flight level wind: SE (140°) @ 48 mph
Temperature: 59°F
Dewpoint: 59°F
Weather: Rainshowers
850mb height: 5100 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[TheEuropean]

SXXX50 KNHC 020627
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 10 KNHC
0615. 1916N 06137W 01526 0090 126 043 164 160 043 01656 0000000000
0616 1916N 06139W 01527 0089 127 044 162 160 045 01657 0000000000
0616. 1916N 06141W 01526 0089 120 041 158 158 043 01656 0000000000
0617 1917N 06143W 01531 0089 119 044 156 156 045 01661 0000000000
0617. 1917N 06145W 01525 0088 119 044 160 160 046 01654 0000000000
0618 1918N 06147W 01526 0087 118 042 160 160 043 01654 0000000000
0618. 1918N 06149W 01527 0087 118 042 160 158 043 01654 0000000000
0619 1919N 06151W 01530 0086 117 044 160 160 044 01656 0000000000
0619. 1919N 06153W 01526 0086 116 043 160 160 044 01653 0000000000
0620 1920N 06155W 01528 0085 117 045 156 156 046 01653 0000000000
0620. 1920N 06157W 01525 0085 115 041 156 156 042 01651 0000000000
0621 1921N 06159W 01529 0085 115 039 160 158 040 01655 0000000000
0621. 1921N 06201W 01527 0085 107 038 160 160 039 01653 0000000000
0622 1921N 06203W 01525 0085 096 040 146 146 041 01650 0000000000
0622. 1921N 06205W 01530 0083 094 041 134 134 041 01654 0000000000
0623 1921N 06208W 01526 0083 095 042 140 140 043 01650 0000000000
0623. 1921N 06210W 01527 0082 095 042 138 138 043 01650 0000000000
0624 1921N 06212W 01527 0082 093 042 160 160 042 01649 0000000000
0624. 1921N 06214W 01527 0083 093 040 158 158 041 01650 0000000000
0625 1921N 06216W 01527 0082 095 036 148 148 037 01649 0000000000

[TheEuropean]

SXXX50 KNHC 020637
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 11 KNHC
0625. 1921N 06218W 01527 0082 093 033 150 150 034 01650 0000000000
0626 1921N 06220W 01526 0081 092 031 148 148 033 01648 0000000000
0626. 1921N 06222W 01529 0083 092 031 160 160 032 01652 0000000000
0627 1921N 06224W 01526 0083 094 032 164 164 032 01650 0000000000
0627. 1921N 06226W 01528 0082 084 033 164 162 035 01651 0000000000
0628 1921N 06228W 01526 0083 078 038 164 162 039 01650 0000000000
0628. 1921N 06230W 01527 0082 086 042 148 148 043 01649 0000000000
0629 1921N 06232W 01528 0083 087 038 152 152 040 01652 0000000000
0629. 1921N 06234W 01525 0083 081 031 160 160 032 01649 0000000000
0630 1921N 06236W 01530 0082 079 032 170 156 033 01653 0000000000
0630. 1921N 06238W 01526 0081 079 034 172 150 035 01648 0000000000
0631 1921N 06240W 01527 0082 074 035 172 146 036 01649 0000000000
0631. 1921N 06243W 01528 0083 072 036 164 160 037 01652 0000000000
0632 1921N 06245W 01528 0083 074 036 158 158 037 01652 0000000000
0632. 1921N 06247W 01526 0085 073 035 154 154 037 01651 0000000000
0633 1921N 06249W 01528 0085 072 036 158 158 037 01654 0000000000
0633. 1921N 06251W 01528 0084 074 036 160 158 037 01653 0000000000
0634 1921N 06253W 01525 0085 074 035 160 160 036 01651 0000000000
0634. 1921N 06255W 01527 0085 072 034 150 150 035 01653 0000000000
0635 1921N 06257W 01529 0086 069 034 164 162 034 01656 0000000000

[Bailey1777]

Am I reading it wrong or is this saying that Chris has actually weakened? And 2 is it me or does it seem like for a WNW moving storm that it keeps moving more N with every fix?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I noticed that on satellite as well..Wobble

[TheEuropean]

Can someone please take over now? Have to leave now.

[hicksta]

Wobble..... Kinda hard to measure movements without a real defined center

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its stair steping I expect this to be around 24.5/75. I would really watch this if you are in florida.

[mobilebay]

Am I reading it wrong or is this saying that Chris has actually weakened? And 2 is it me or does it seem like for a WNW moving storm that it keeps moving more N with every fix?

1. If it has not much (pressure is down)
2. Recon has not sampled the entire cyclone
3. I believe Chris is in an reorganizing faze.

JMHO

[Grease Monkey]

It's possible that the storm weakened as far as wind speed, but I think it's probably just reorganizing itself. Once it's finished, the winds will pick up very quickly.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Give me the link

[clfenwi]

Recon hasn't matched the peak wind value yet, but did match the recent peak from this evening, so so far, I would consider it a steady state, not weakened... as for the question of movement, there was a difference of 32 miles in the northward direction, but only 7 in the westward direction... as the 11 PM discussion mentioned, it's not clear as to whether that's pure movement, or center reformation...

...as far as the status of the mission goes...the northeast pass is complete and the plane is now flying west around the northern fringe of the storm...

[mobilebay]

Recon hasn't matched the peak wind value yet, but did match the recent peak from this evening, so so far, I would consider it a steady state, not weakened... as for the question of movement, there was a difference of 32 miles in the northward direction, but only 7 in the westward direction... as the 11 PM discussion mentioned, it's not clear as to whether that's pure movement, or center reformation...

...as far as the status of the mission goes...the northeast pass is complete and the plane is now flying west around the northern fringe of the storm...

so far recon has found 5 MPH less winds. WOW! That could be found on a later pass.

[clfenwi]

Storm Name: CHRIS (03L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 07
Time: 0635Z
Latitude: 19.3°N
Longitude: 63.0°W
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 5000 feet
Flight level wind: ENE (70°) @ 38 mph
Temperature: 61°F
Dewpoint: 61°F
Weather: Rainshowers
850mb height: 5100 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

ob from the northwest corner of the storm...

[mobilebay]

Give me the link

I don't have a link to the minute Obs Matt. I don't know where they get them from.

[clfenwi]

AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 12 KNHC
0635. 1921N 06259W 01527 0086 065 034 162 158 035 01654 0000000000
0636 1921N 06301W 01526 0087 065 033 160 160 033 01654 0000000000
0636. 1920N 06303W 01530 0091 062 031 158 158 032 01662 0000000000
0637 1919N 06304W 01532 0092 053 030 160 160 031 01665 0000000000
0637. 1918N 06303W 01519 0085 056 025 162 162 026 01645 0000000000
0638 1917N 06302W 01528 0085 061 026 146 146 027 01653 0000000000
0638. 1916N 06301W 01526 0084 056 028 142 142 030 01650 0000000000
0639 1914N 06259W 01526 0084 059 026 134 134 029 01651 0000000000
0639. 1913N 06258W 01528 0084 064 029 146 146 030 01652 0000000000
0640 1912N 06257W 01529 0083 066 033 162 162 034 01653 0000000000
0640. 1911N 06256W 01527 0082 075 033 160 160 033 01650 0000000000
0641 1910N 06255W 01528 0081 075 031 160 160 031 01650 0000000000
0641. 1909N 06254W 01527 0079 068 028 156 156 029 01647 0000000000
0642 1908N 06253W 01526 0078 068 031 152 152 031 01645 0000000000
0642. 1907N 06251W 01529 0077 065 030 150 150 031 01647 0000000000
0643 1906N 06250W 01525 0076 061 030 162 158 031 01642 0000000000
0643. 1904N 06249W 01526 0074 066 033 164 160 034 01641 0000000000
0644 1903N 06248W 01527 0072 066 036 160 160 037 01641 0000000000
0644. 1902N 06247W 01528 0072 061 034 160 160 035 01641 0000000000
0645 1900N 06246W 01528 0071 055 033 166 166 034 01640 0000000000

If you want to post the minobs, Matt go ahead and do so from hereon out... link is http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... XXX50.KNHC

[TheEuropean]

The Link:

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thanks