Tropical Storm Chris

[clfenwi]

Recon hasn't matched the peak wind value yet, but did match the recent peak from this evening, so so far, I would consider it a steady state, not weakened... as for the question of movement, there was a difference of 32 miles in the northward direction, but only 7 in the westward direction... as the 11 PM discussion mentioned, it's not clear as to whether that's pure movement, or center reformation...

...as far as the status of the mission goes...the northeast pass is complete and the plane is now flying west around the northern fringe of the storm...

so far recon has found 5 MPH less winds. WOW! That could be found on a later pass.

Yep, that's why I would say steady state, vice weakend.

The plane has turned to the southeast and is now on a northwest-southest pass of the storm...

[dwsqos2]

429
UZNT13 KNHC 020645
XXAA 52078 99193 70631 04393 99015 26814 06530 00128 25816 06036
92813 21408 06532 85544 18000 06029 88999 77999
31313 09608 80636
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 08
62626 SPL 1933N06308W 0638 MBL WND 06035 AEV 20604 DLM WND 06033
014854 WL150 06034 080 =
XXBB 52078 99193 70631 04393 00015 26814 11898 20214 22850 18000
33842 17000
21212 00015 06530 11005 06035 22986 06037 33904 06029 44871 06032
55854 06029 66842 05529
31313 09608 80636
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 08
62626 SPL 1933N06308W 0638 MBL WND 06035 AEV 20604 DLM WND 06033
014854 WL150 06034 080 =

[Grease Monkey]

Recon hasn't matched the peak wind value yet, but did match the recent peak from this evening, so so far, I would consider it a steady state, not weakened... as for the question of movement, there was a difference of 32 miles in the northward direction, but only 7 in the westward direction... as the 11 PM discussion mentioned, it's not clear as to whether that's pure movement, or center reformation...

...as far as the status of the mission goes...the northeast pass is complete and the plane is now flying west around the northern fringe of the storm...

so far recon has found 5 MPH less winds. WOW! That could be found on a later pass.

Yep, that's why I would say steady state, vice weakend.

The plane has turned to the southeast and is now on a northwest-southest pass of the storm...

I have a terrible imagination. Where are the links to the recon images?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

764
SXXX50 KNHC 020657
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 13 KNHC
0645. 1859N 06245W 01525 0069 049 029 170 166 031 01635 0000000000
0646 1858N 06244W 01524 0067 041 029 170 166 029 01632 0000000000
0646. 1856N 06243W 01527 0066 042 027 168 166 029 01634 0000000000
0647 1855N 06242W 01526 0065 050 033 172 160 035 01632 0000000000
0647. 1854N 06241W 01527 0062 049 033 184 150 035 01630 0000000000
0648 1852N 06240W 01529 0060 041 031 192 144 032 01630 0000000000
0648. 1851N 06239W 01525 0056 035 030 190 144 031 01623 0000000000
0649 1850N 06238W 01524 0053 041 034 182 156 034 01618 0000000000
0649. 1849N 06237W 01530 0048 041 038 178 162 041 01618 0000000000
0650 1847N 06235W 01527 0042 038 042 170 170 042 01609 0000000000
0650. 1846N 06234W 01525 0037 039 042 174 168 042 01603 0000000000
0651 1845N 06233W 01527 0032 037 038 172 170 040 01600 0000000000
0651. 1844N 06232W 01528 0027 029 035 174 166 036 01596 0000000000
0652 1843N 06230W 01526 0021 020 035 176 172 036 01588 0000000000
0652. 1842N 06229W 01527 0015 013 034 176 176 034 01584 0000000000
0653 1842N 06227W 01526 0007 011 032 176 176 032 01573 0000000000
0653. 1841N 06225W 01527 5000 011 029 180 180 031 01567 0000000000
0654 1841N 06224W 01524 5005 031 014 196 176 022 01559 0000000000
0654. 1840N 06222W 01534 5010 332 004 192 178 006 01565 0000000000
0655 1840N 06220W 01523 5008 251 009 184 184 015 01556 0000000000

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It droped to 6 knots I think thats the center?

[mobilebay]

Getting back to the center again. Heading to the Southeast Quad.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/06:54:10Z
B. 18 deg 40 min N
062 deg 22 min W
C. 850 mb 1443 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 036 deg 042 kt
G. 298 deg 014 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 17 C/ 1527 m
J. 20 C/ 1524 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 09
MAX FL WIND 60 KT NE QUAD 06:07:30 Z
RADAR SHOWS THIN BANDING FORMING AROUND CENTER IN NW QUAD.
HEAVIEST CONVECTION IN SE QUAD.

[clfenwi]

UZNT13 KNHC 020705
XXAA 52078 99187 70624 04382 99002 27012 35009 00015 27012 35009
92704 22407 00504 85438 21027 31508 88999 77999
31313 09608 80654
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 1866N06236W 0656 MBL WND 34508 AEV 20604 DLM WND 34
505 000853 WL150 34509 084 =
XXBB 52078 99187 70624 04382 00002 27012 11896 20405 22850 21027
33842 19425
21212 00002 35009 11907 35502 22853 31509 33842 31506
31313 09608 80654
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 1866N06236W 0656 MBL WND 34508 AEV 20604 DLM WND 34
505 000853 WL150 34509 084

1002 millibars from the "eye" dropsonde...

[Swimdude]

Very strange drop in wind speed. I can't quite imagine this thing having that much of a defined center yet, lacking winds within it and all... What's even more strange is that I'm up at 2 in the morning thinking about all of this.

[mobilebay]

Very strange drop in wind speed. I can't quite imagine this thing having that much of a defined center yet, lacking winds within it and all... What's even more strange is that I'm up at 2 in the morning thinking about all of this.

What drop in wind speed? they are just now about to sample the heaviest convection.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

SXXX50 KNHC 020707
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 14 KNHC
0655. 1838N 06219W 01531 5004 234 020 178 178 022 01568 0000000000
0656 1837N 06218W 01524 0003 221 028 172 172 031 01568 0000000000
0656. 1836N 06217W 01527 0008 219 032 166 166 034 01576 0000000000
0657 1835N 06216W 01527 0014 218 033 166 166 033 01582 0000000000
0657. 1834N 06214W 01527 0018 221 036 162 162 038 01586 0000000000
0658 1833N 06213W 01526 0024 218 044 148 148 046 01591 0000000000
0658. 1831N 06212W 01531 0030 217 047 164 164 048 01602 0000000000
0659 1830N 06211W 01527 0035 214 049 156 156 050 01603 0000000000
0659. 1829N 06210W 01522 0040 212 050 140 140 052 01603 0000000000
0700 1828N 06209W 01531 0045 206 048 146 146 049 01617 0000000000
0700. 1827N 06208W 01526 0050 210 045 148 148 046 01617 0000000000
0701 1826N 06207W 01526 0055 209 044 164 164 045 01622 0000000000
0701. 1825N 06205W 01528 0058 206 044 152 152 044 01627 0000000000
0702 1824N 06204W 01528 0061 207 040 164 164 040 01630 0000000000
0702. 1823N 06203W 01525 0064 209 039 166 166 039 01630 0000000000
0703 1822N 06202W 01528 0066 209 039 166 166 039 01635 0000000000
0703. 1821N 06201W 01527 0069 206 036 164 164 037 01636 0000000000
0704 1820N 06200W 01528 0070 209 034 166 166 035 01638 0000000000
0704. 1818N 06159W 01527 0072 209 035 166 166 035 01640 0000000000
0705 1817N 06158W 01527 0074 206 036 162 162 037 01641 0000000000

[Swimdude]

The AVN imagery on NOAA is showing the typical strengthening feature... What we refer to here as "the fist" shape.

[Swimdude]

I meant the temporary 6 kt reading

[clfenwi]

Storm Name: CHRIS (03L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 11
Time: 0707Z
Latitude: 18.2°N
Longitude: 61.8°W
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 5000 feet
Flight level wind: SSW (210°) @ 38 mph
Temperature: 61°F
Dewpoint: 59°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
850mb height: 5000 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

SXXX50 KNHC 020717
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 15 KNHC
0705. 1816N 06157W 01528 0075 201 037 166 162 038 01644 0000000000
0706 1815N 06155W 01524 0076 204 037 162 162 039 01641 0000000000
0706. 1814N 06154W 01530 0078 208 036 154 154 038 01649 0000000000
0707 1813N 06153W 01525 0079 210 037 162 156 037 01645 0000000000
0707. 1812N 06152W 01529 0081 211 036 160 156 036 01650 0000000000
0708 1811N 06151W 01526 0082 208 034 162 154 035 01649 0000000000
0708. 1810N 06150W 01528 0087 204 033 160 160 034 01656 0000000000
0709 1810N 06148W 01531 0090 204 033 162 162 034 01662 0000000000
0709. 1812N 06148W 01522 0085 200 032 160 160 033 01647 0000000000
0710 1814N 06148W 01529 0084 194 034 162 162 034 01653 0000000000
0710. 1816N 06148W 01526 0083 191 035 164 160 035 01650 0000000000
0711 1817N 06148W 01526 0082 189 035 160 160 036 01649 0000000000
0711. 1819N 06148W 01527 0081 194 037 160 160 038 01648 0000000000
0712 1821N 06148W 01528 0079 194 038 162 150 039 01648 0000000000
0712. 1823N 06148W 01527 0078 192 039 162 154 039 01646 0000000000
0713 1825N 06148W 01527 0077 189 039 160 154 039 01645 0000000000
0713. 1827N 06148W 01527 0077 184 039 160 156 040 01645 0000000000
0714 1829N 06148W 01527 0076 178 039 156 156 040 01644 0000000000
0714. 1831N 06148W 01531 0076 173 039 154 154 041 01648 0000000000
0715 1833N 06148W 01523 0075 173 041 156 156 042 01639 0000000000

[clfenwi]

I have a terrible imagination. Where are the links to the recon images?

As far as I know, all of the images people post with the plot of the plane relative to the storm are home-brewed by people using Google Earth. I don't believe there's a link for them.

I thank my father, who, among other things, was a navigator on P-3 Orions, for my ability to visualize where the plane's going...which is north right now along the eastern edge of the storm.

[mobilebay]

Looks like the NE is the strongest quad so far. Again I think this thing is reorganizing, because the overall envelope is looking pretty good.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

986
SXXX50 KNHC 020727
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 16 KNHC
0715. 1835N 06148W 01527 0075 172 043 162 158 043 01642 0000000000
0716 1837N 06148W 01526 0075 169 043 166 156 043 01642 0000000000
0716. 1839N 06148W 01527 0075 169 044 166 150 044 01643 0000000000
0717 1841N 06148W 01525 0074 165 044 166 150 044 01640 0000000000
0717. 1843N 06147W 01528 0074 165 045 160 160 046 01643 0000000000
0718 1845N 06147W 01528 0074 165 043 148 148 045 01643 0000000000
0718. 1847N 06147W 01528 0074 163 046 158 158 047 01643 0000000000
0719 1849N 06147W 01525 0075 161 046 162 146 047 01640 0000000000
0719. 1851N 06147W 01527 0076 159 045 166 144 045 01644 0000000000
0720 1853N 06147W 01529 0076 156 045 168 146 046 01646 0000000000
0720. 1855N 06147W 01525 0075 150 045 164 164 045 01641 0000000000
0721 1857N 06147W 01529 0075 145 046 150 150 048 01644 0000000000
0721. 1859N 06147W 01527 0077 146 046 156 156 048 01645 0000000000
0722 1901N 06147W 01530 0077 143 045 156 156 047 01648 0000000000
0722. 1903N 06147W 01523 0079 152 043 162 162 045 01643 0000000000
0723 1905N 06147W 01526 0080 149 042 158 158 042 01647 0000000000
0723. 1907N 06147W 01527 0081 148 043 162 158 044 01649 0000000000
0724 1909N 06147W 01527 0083 144 044 166 152 045 01651 0000000000
0724. 1911N 06147W 01525 0085 141 044 160 160 045 01650 0000000000
0725 1913N 06147W 01530 0084 139 044 160 160 045 01655 0000000000

[mobilebay]

986
SXXX50 KNHC 020727
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 16 KNHC
0715. 1835N 06148W 01527 0075 172 043 162 158 043 01642 0000000000
0716 1837N 06148W 01526 0075 169 043 166 156 043 01642 0000000000
0716. 1839N 06148W 01527 0075 169 044 166 150 044 01643 0000000000
0717 1841N 06148W 01525 0074 165 044 166 150 044 01640 0000000000
0717. 1843N 06147W 01528 0074 165 045 160 160 046 01643 0000000000
0718 1845N 06147W 01528 0074 165 043 148 148 045 01643 0000000000
0718. 1847N 06147W 01528 0074 163 046 158 158 047 01643 0000000000
0719 1849N 06147W 01525 0075 161 046 162 146 047 01640 0000000000
0719. 1851N 06147W 01527 0076 159 045 166 144 045 01644 0000000000
0720 1853N 06147W 01529 0076 156 045 168 146 046 01646 0000000000
0720. 1855N 06147W 01525 0075 150 045 164 164 045 01641 0000000000
0721 1857N 06147W 01529 0075 145 046 150 150 048 01644 0000000000
0721. 1859N 06147W 01527 0077 146 046 156 156 048 01645 0000000000
0722 1901N 06147W 01530 0077 143 045 156 156 047 01648 0000000000
0722. 1903N 06147W 01523 0079 152 043 162 162 045 01643 0000000000
0723 1905N 06147W 01526 0080 149 042 158 158 042 01647 0000000000
0723. 1907N 06147W 01527 0081 148 043 162 158 044 01649 0000000000
0724 1909N 06147W 01527 0083 144 044 166 152 045 01651 0000000000
0724. 1911N 06147W 01525 0085 141 044 160 160 045 01650 0000000000
0725 1913N 06147W 01530 0084 139 044 160 160 045 01655 0000000000

that's the east quad.

[mobilebay]

774
SXXX50 KNHC 020737
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 17 KNHC
0725. 1915N 06147W 01529 0084 144 040 158 158 040 01654 0000000000
0726 1917N 06147W 01525 0086 143 040 156 156 041 01652 0000000000
0726. 1919N 06147W 01525 0087 136 040 154 154 042 01653 0000000000
0727 1920N 06147W 01527 0088 122 043 132 132 049 01656 0000000000
0727. 1922N 06147W 01528 0090 126 040 144 144 041 01659 0000000000
0728 1924N 06146W 01527 0091 123 037 150 150 037 01659 0000000000
0728. 1926N 06146W 01526 0094 127 036 164 164 036 01661 0000000000
0729 1927N 06147W 01531 0099 128 037 160 160 038 01671 0000000000
0729. 1927N 06149W 01526 0095 124 034 168 160 035 01661 0000000000
0730 1926N 06150W 01526 0090 117 033 152 152 035 01657 0000000000
0730. 1924N 06151W 01527 0089 119 031 144 144 032 01657 0000000000
0731 1923N 06153W 01525 0086 117 031 130 130 034 01651 0000000000
0731. 1922N 06154W 01528 0085 121 044 130 130 047 01653 0000000000
0732 1921N 06155W 01529 0087 129 044 150 150 044 01657 0000000000
0732. 1920N 06156W 01526 0085 131 043 156 156 044 01652 0000000000
0733 1919N 06158W 01526 0084 131 040 162 162 041 01650 0000000000
0733. 1917N 06159W 01528 0082 127 039 160 160 040 01651 0000000000
0734 1916N 06200W 01529 0081 132 040 160 160 041 01651 0000000000
0734. 1915N 06201W 01525 0080 136 041 156 156 041 01645 0000000000
0735 1914N 06202W 01528 0077 136 042 144 144 042 01646 0000000000