Tropical Storm Alberto

rockyman · #141 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:37 am

The vortex is definitely moving SSW...it's about to cross very near Cozumel

Extremeweatherguy · #142 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:37 am

really good Sat. shot this morning:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

would not be surprised to see Alberto form with the next advisory.

#143 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:38 am

What do you guys think RECON will find?

#144 Postby **Incident_MET** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:38 am

If you look closely at visible loops there is a 2nd circulation squarely in the center of the Yucatan channel.

#145 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:39 am

So I wake up to TD1...I think RECON will declare it Alberto.

#146 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:40 am

WV loop shows the ULL now moving rapidly SW into the southern BOC, which would allow TD 1 to make more of a westward or NW movement instead of pure north.

Extremeweatherguy · #147 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:42 am

The 11am advisory should come in at any moment.

#148 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:42 am

Incident_MET wrote:If you look closely at visible loops there is a 2nd circulation squarely in the center of the Yucatan channel.

That's what we've been watching all morning...and wondering if it will get spit out or worked back into the larger LLC.

Extremeweatherguy · #149 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:43 am

Dean4Storms wrote:WV loop shows the ULL now moving rapidly SW into the southern BOC, which would allow TD 1 to make more of a westward or NW movement instead of pure north.

I am noticing that too. This is not looking good for the Central Gulf coast.

Weatherfreak14 · #150 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:44 am

When will the recon have an update back to us?

#151 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:46 am

Weatherfreak14 wrote:When will the recon have an update back to us?

Go to the recon thread for the answer.

Extremeweatherguy · #152 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:46 am

Weatherfreak14 wrote:When will the recon have an update back to us?

I believe sometime early this afternoon.

Extremeweatherguy · #153 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:46 am

11am advisory = still 35mph "poorly organized"

TS warnings recommended for parts of Cuba.

mtm4319 · #154 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:47 am

The depression has moved 0.4 degrees north and 0.3 west in the past 2 hours.

#155 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:47 am

Air Force Met wrote:
Incident_MET wrote:If you look closely at visible loops there is a 2nd circulation squarely in the center of the Yucatan channel.

That's what we've been watching all morning...and wondering if it will get spit out or worked back into the larger LLC.

There's another circ along the western tip of Cuba where the initial advisory was issued. It is just now coming into view on the GHCC high res loop.

AZS · #156 Postby **AZS** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:49 am

#157 Postby **curtadams** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:49 am

I think this is going to have a hard time organizing more. I think the lower lever counterclockwise circulations from the MLCs in the big convective blob have shoved dry GOM air over the broad LLC that rockyman ID'd. That's why there's almost no clouds there. The MLCs themselves are in a fairly high shear area (for a developing tropical system) and get ripped off the LLCs they generate and fed into the maw of the subtropical jet. (visually the shear looks considerably stronger than the posted shear maps indicate). So the LLC can't convect but the MLCs can't live.

Extremeweatherguy · #158 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:49 am

Here is the 11am forecast track:

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... 1_5day.gif

*This could change if the center reforms SW*

EDIT: I was beaten to it!

#159 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:50 am

It's interesting that we will have an intermediate advisory without watches and warning. Just recommendable warnings.

Extremeweatherguy · #160 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:52 am

I still think the track will end up well west of the current forecast track...but it does seem like the new track is just slightly west and north of the old one. I think the furthest west scenario is Houston and the furthest east scenario is their current track (near Cedar Key).

Tropical Storm Alberto

Who is online