Tropical Storm Chris

[Toadstool]

I hope the models get a grip on this thing.

What can happen if they don't?

In the dark ages, meterologists didn't have all the gizmos and still did a decent job at forecasting. The NHC can handle this. I have no doubt.

I was tempted to make a crack about weathermen (well, particularly the "weatherwoman who raps"), but yes I put my faith in the NHC. Things have really come a long way, just do not turn to your local news channel... stay with the big shots.

[mobilebay]

089
SXXX50 KNHC 020907
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 26 KNHC
0855. 1857N 06320W 01538 0076 042 028 164 152 029 01655 0000000000
0856 1855N 06320W 01541 0076 039 027 162 162 028 01658 0000000000
0856. 1854N 06320W 01541 0076 034 027 164 164 028 01658 0000000000
0857 1852N 06320W 01539 0076 029 025 162 162 025 01656 0000000000
0857. 1850N 06320W 01540 0075 016 023 156 156 024 01656 0000000000
0858 1848N 06320W 01540 0075 010 023 156 156 024 01656 0000000000
0858. 1846N 06320W 01540 0074 008 024 160 160 025 01655 0000000000
0859 1844N 06320W 01539 0074 007 024 140 140 027 01654 0000000000
0859. 1843N 06320W 01542 0074 354 022 146 146 023 01657 0000000000
0900 1841N 06320W 01536 0075 350 022 156 156 023 01652 0000000000
0900. 1839N 06320W 01540 0075 350 022 156 156 023 01657 0000000000
0901 1837N 06320W 01542 0077 350 023 160 158 023 01660 0000000000
0901. 1835N 06319W 01539 0078 346 022 158 156 023 01658 0000000000
0902 1833N 06319W 01539 0079 335 018 158 158 020 01659 0000000000
0902. 1832N 06319W 01541 0080 333 016 162 152 016 01662 0000000000
0903 1830N 06319W 01541 0080 342 018 160 156 018 01661 0000000000
0903. 1828N 06319W 01539 0080 341 020 156 156 021 01660 0000000000
0904 1826N 06319W 01539 0080 329 020 158 156 021 01660 0000000000
0904. 1824N 06319W 01545 0084 324 019 164 152 019 01670 0000000000
0905 1824N 06317W 01539 0082 319 016 160 158 018 01663 0000000000

[mobilebay]

993
SXXX50 KNHC 020917
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 27 KNHC
0905. 1825N 06316W 01536 0079 317 015 162 156 016 01656 0000000000
0906 1827N 06315W 01540 0078 320 016 158 158 016 01659 0000000000
0906. 1828N 06314W 01542 0076 315 017 158 158 018 01659 0000000000
0907 1829N 06312W 01537 0075 314 018 154 154 018 01653 0000000000
0907. 1830N 06311W 01539 0074 317 016 156 156 017 01654 0000000000
0908 1831N 06310W 01542 0072 318 019 154 154 019 01655 0000000000
0908. 1832N 06309W 01539 0071 321 020 154 154 020 01651 0000000000
0909 1834N 06308W 01539 0068 327 022 164 160 022 01649 0000000000
0909. 1835N 06306W 01540 0066 323 022 170 148 022 01647 0000000000
0910 1836N 06305W 01542 0064 320 022 164 164 022 01647 0000000000
0910. 1837N 06304W 01538 0062 322 022 162 162 022 01641 0000000000
0911 1838N 06303W 01541 0059 322 022 160 160 023 01640 0000000000
0911. 1839N 06302W 01539 0056 327 024 164 164 025 01636 0000000000
0912 1840N 06300W 01540 0053 319 023 164 164 024 01635 0000000000
0912. 1842N 06259W 01540 0051 321 021 166 166 022 01631 0000000000
0913 1843N 06258W 01540 0047 318 023 176 158 025 01628 0000000000
0913. 1844N 06257W 01537 0042 322 024 174 160 025 01619 0000000000
0914 1845N 06256W 01541 0038 338 025 170 170 026 01620 0000000000
0914. 1846N 06254W 01537 0032 335 027 170 170 027 01610 0000000000
0915 1847N 06253W 01543 0026 334 029 172 172 030 01610 0000000000

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 020858
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON POSITION AND WIND DATA THIS MORNING...ALONG
WITH NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATE CHRIS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN RADAR
IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH IT IS TILTED ABOUT 12 NMI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. WHILE THE STRUCTURE OF CHRIS HAS IMRPOVED...
THIS HAS NOT TRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY...YET. A PASS
THROUGH THE CENTER OF CHRIS AROUND 0745Z REVEALED AN ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB AND AN 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 62
KT. WHILE THE PRESSURE IS DOWN 2 MB FORM EARLIER FLIGHTS...THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS STILL YIELD ONLY A 50-KT SURFACE WIND.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT TERM MOTION
FROM THE LAST SEVERAL RECON FIXES YIELDS A MOTION OF 310/11.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS IS FORECAST BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ROUGHLY THAT POSITION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOW IN HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF CHRIS. UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY NOGAPS...NOW HANG
ONTO CHRIS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT A SMALL COMPACT ONE. THE
GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS HAVE MADE A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT AND ARE NOW ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE ALSO
SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND NO LONGER TAKE CHRIS ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES. THE LONE OUTLIER MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE GFDL...WHICH
ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TAKES CHRIS DUE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND INTO HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE GFDL MODEL BEING A LARGE OUTLIER. IT
SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE
TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 5-10 KT BY 96 AND 120 HOURS...YET SHOWS LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION AND BARELY MAKES CHRIS A HURRICANE...EVEN THOUGH
THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 29.5C TO 30C SSTS AND BETWEEN TWO
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS THAT WILL ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND
EAST. GIVEN THAT CHRIS IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS IT
CAN SPIN UP QUICKLY BUT ALSO SPIN DOWN JUST AS QUICKLY...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AT THIS
TIME IN HE LONGER TIME PERIODS...BUT STILL ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG RAIN BAND
DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS AND MOVING OVER THOSE AREAS
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 18.8N 62.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 19.4N 64.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 65.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 20.6N 67.6W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 21.2N 69.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 22.2N 73.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 23.3N 77.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 24.5N 82.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Toadstool]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 020858
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON POSITION AND WIND DATA THIS MORNING...ALONG
WITH NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATE CHRIS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN RADAR
IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH IT IS TILTED ABOUT 12 NMI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. WHILE THE STRUCTURE OF CHRIS HAS IMRPOVED...
FORECASTER STEWART

I really was surprised to see how well defined the eye was on the radar from Puerto Rico!

[mobilebay]

855
SXXX50 KNHC 020927
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 28 KNHC
0915. 1847N 06251W 01539 0020 342 031 180 180 032 01599 0000000000
0916 1848N 06250W 01543 0014 346 027 172 172 027 01598 0000000000
0916. 1849N 06248W 01536 0008 349 019 180 180 024 01585 0000000000
0917 1849N 06246W 01539 0003 035 011 198 180 012 01582 0000000000
0917. 1849N 06245W 01535 5002 001 010 202 176 015 01574 0000000000
0918 1849N 06243W 01545 5006 252 011 196 182 016 01580 0000000000
0918. 1849N 06241W 01541 5006 227 018 190 182 018 01576 0000000000
0919 1850N 06240W 01547 5010 201 022 194 176 024 01577 0000000000
0919. 1851N 06238W 01537 5008 197 021 190 180 021 01570 0000000000
0920 1853N 06237W 01545 5007 179 021 188 178 022 01578 0000000000
0920. 1854N 06236W 01540 5004 157 023 184 182 025 01578 0000000000
0921 1855N 06235W 01551 0002 160 034 164 164 041 01593 0000000000
0921. 1857N 06233W 01539 0015 140 056 144 144 060 01594 0000000100
0922 1858N 06232W 01528 0024 123 058 128 128 061 01593 0000000100
0922. 1859N 06231W 01552 0025 132 056 122 122 058 01618 0000000000
0923 1900N 06230W 01550 0029 139 057 164 156 059 01620 0000000000
0923. 1901N 06229W 01536 0034 142 060 172 162 061 01611 0000000000
0924 1902N 06228W 01543 0039 141 061 172 152 063 01623 0000000000
0924. 1903N 06226W 01544 0044 142 065 174 146 065 01628 0000000000
0925 1905N 06225W 01544 0048 145 063 168 152 064 01633 0000000000

[mobilebay]

Up to 65 Knots!

[mobilebay]

264
URNT12 KNHC 020924
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/09:17:20Z
B. 18 deg 49 min N
062 deg 44 min W
C. 850 mb 1447 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 340 deg 032 kt
G. 256 deg 007 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 17 C/ 1545 m
J. 20 C/ 1528 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 25
MAX FL WIND 62 KT NE QUAD 07:41:30 Z

[mobilebay]

this was taken right after that vortex message!
0924. 1903N 06226W 01544 0044 142 065 174 146 065 01628 0000000000
0925 1905N 06225W 01544 0048 145 063 168 152 064 01633 0000000000

[kenl01]

Chris is a very small cyclone - surprised how little it really is. The smaller the better - it won't impact much of an area. Plus as they mentioned, a small tropical cyclone can spin down quickly as well. If this small cyclone moves across northern Hispaniola, it could weaken significantly and remain small as well.............

Lets hope so.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Plus that 1002 millibar pressure was tooken in 12 knot winds...You take off 1 millibar per 5 knots. So its around 1000 millibars now.

[KWT]

Equally Ken the small systems can organise very quickly over hot waters, just see what storms like Andrew and Labor day storm done and they were both quite small and in a similar area. Hope it does go over Hispaniola but I don't think it will, maybe Cuba but I'd doubt Hispaniola.

[dwsqos2]

122
UZNT13 KNHC 020925
XXAA 52098 99188 70627 04382 99002 27007 28015 00018 27006 28015
92706 23418 30015 85444 21231 26509 88999 77999
31313 09608 80917
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 26
62626 EYE SPL 1881N06271W 0919 MBL WND 28517 AEV 20604 DLM WND 28
015 001852 WL150 29017 083 =
XXBB 52098 99188 70627 04382 00002 27007 11953 24008 22850 21231
33841 20018
21212 00002 28015 11992 29019 22985 28516 33948 28515 44923 30015
55871 26014 66859 25513 77852 27010 88841 24509
31313 09608 80917
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 26
62626 EYE SPL 1881N06271W 0919 MBL WND 28517 AEV 20604 DLM WND 28
015 001852 WL150 29017 083 =

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

And Chris might not stay small as it crosses the GOM.

Very far out, but IF, and I emphasize IF, Chris becomes a major hurricane, ERCs can expand the wind field and the size of the storm.

[mobilebay]

560
SXXX50 KNHC 020937
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 29 KNHC
0925. 1906N 06224W 01541 0052 139 059 170 156 059 01634 0000000000
0926 1907N 06223W 01542 0056 136 058 166 156 058 01639 0000000000
0926. 1908N 06222W 01544 0059 135 056 172 154 057 01644 0000000000
0927 1909N 06220W 01542 0063 134 054 172 152 055 01646 0000000000
0927. 1911N 06219W 01546 0067 135 051 170 154 052 01654 0000000000
0928 1912N 06218W 01542 0071 138 047 156 156 049 01655 0000000000
0928. 1913N 06217W 01540 0073 141 046 152 152 047 01654 0000000000
0929 1914N 06216W 01546 0077 138 043 150 150 044 01664 0000000000
0929. 1915N 06214W 01537 0077 137 043 150 150 043 01655 0000000000
0930 1917N 06213W 01546 0078 139 044 158 158 044 01665 0000000000
0930. 1918N 06212W 01542 0080 140 044 156 156 045 01662 0000000000
0931 1919N 06211W 01545 0082 141 045 156 156 045 01667 0000000000
0931. 1920N 06210W 01542 0082 143 043 136 136 044 01665 0000000000
0932 1921N 06208W 01546 0083 138 040 132 132 040 01669 0000000100
0932. 1923N 06207W 01542 0086 133 041 138 138 041 01669 0000000000
0933 1924N 06206W 01541 0088 134 042 152 152 042 01670 0000000000
0933. 1925N 06205W 01543 0089 135 043 154 154 043 01673 0000000000
0934 1926N 06204W 01544 0090 137 041 154 154 041 01676 0000000000
0934. 1927N 06202W 01543 0090 134 039 140 140 041 01674 0000000000
0935 1928N 06201W 01543 0089 133 039 140 140 041 01673 0000000000

[mobilebay]

And Chris might not stay small as it crosses the GOM.

Very far out, but IF, and I emphasize IF, Chris becomes a major hurricane, ERCs can expand the wind field and the size of the storm.

Correct. once in the GOM Katrina exploded in size.

[KatDaddy]

Very true. I searched the Internet for Katrina photos. I found one of Katrina off the E Coast of Florida. She was small, the size of Chris but exploded in size over the SE GOM.

[dwsqos2]

674
UZNT13 KNHC 020944
XXAA 52108 99195 70620 04392 99014 25014 ///// 00126 23809 10547
92807 20002 12045 85536 17200 13541 88999 77999
31313 09608 80934
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 28
62626 SPL 1950N06203W 0937 LST WND 014 MBL WND 11045 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 12043 013854 WL150 10547 088 =
XXBB 52108 99195 70620 04392 00014 25014 11869 18006 22850 17200
33842 16400
21212 00014 ///// 11013 11046 22985 11547 33964 11042 44931 12046
55854 13541 66842 13543
31313 09608 80934
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 28
62626 SPL 1950N06203W 0937 LST WND 014 MBL WND 11045 AEV 20604 DL
M WND 12043 013854 WL150 10547 088 =

[dwsqos2]

247
SXXX50 KNHC 020947
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 30 KNHC
0935. 1930N 06200W 01539 0092 133 044 142 142 046 01672 0000000000
0936 1931N 06200W 01547 0096 125 045 136 136 046 01683 0000000000
0936. 1932N 06201W 01543 0093 119 042 132 132 044 01677 0000000100
0937 1932N 06203W 01546 0090 119 042 136 136 045 01677 0000000100
0937. 1932N 06205W 01536 0089 116 043 132 132 046 01666 0000000100
0938 1932N 06207W 01545 0089 115 039 154 154 040 01675 0000000000
0938. 1932N 06209W 01542 0088 118 043 144 144 045 01671 0000000000
0939 1932N 06212W 01543 0089 126 041 158 158 042 01672 0000000000
0939. 1932N 06214W 01542 0088 125 041 160 160 042 01671 0000000000
0940 1932N 06216W 01543 0087 121 043 156 156 043 01671 0000000000
0940. 1932N 06218W 01543 0087 119 042 156 156 044 01671 0000000000
0941 1932N 06220W 01540 0085 115 042 158 158 042 01667 0000000000
0941. 1932N 06222W 01542 0082 106 045 130 130 048 01665 0000000100
0942 1932N 06224W 01546 0086 114 038 130 130 039 01673 0000000000
0942. 1932N 06226W 01540 0084 107 039 134 134 040 01665 0000000000
0943 1933N 06228W 01543 0085 105 043 140 140 044 01669 0000000000
0943. 1934N 06230W 01541 0083 104 045 142 142 046 01666 0000000000
0944 1934N 06232W 01543 0085 109 042 154 154 045 01668 0000000000
0944. 1935N 06234W 01544 0084 108 044 156 156 044 01669 0000000000
0945 1936N 06236W 01541 0085 107 042 168 152 042 01666 0000000000

[dwsqos2]

002
SXXX50 KNHC 020957
AF308 0203A CHRIS HDOB 31 KNHC
0945. 1936N 06238W 01544 0084 108 041 170 158 042 01669 0000000000
0946 1936N 06240W 01543 0084 108 043 176 160 044 01668 0000000000
0946. 1935N 06242W 01542 0083 102 041 176 152 042 01665 0000000000
0947 1935N 06245W 01545 0082 098 042 176 152 043 01668 0000000000
0947. 1935N 06247W 01539 0082 097 040 174 148 041 01661 0000000000
0948 1935N 06249W 01545 0081 098 040 174 152 041 01667 0000000000
0948. 1935N 06251W 01541 0080 097 042 174 152 043 01663 0000000000
0949 1935N 06253W 01545 0080 094 040 172 140 041 01666 0000000000
0949. 1935N 06255W 01542 0080 095 041 170 142 041 01662 0000000000
0950 1935N 06257W 01541 0080 092 041 162 162 041 01662 0000000000
0950. 1935N 06259W 01543 0081 091 041 158 158 042 01665 0000000000
0951 1935N 06301W 01543 0081 086 041 162 162 042 01665 0000000000
0951. 1935N 06303W 01542 0081 080 041 160 160 043 01664 0000000000
0952 1935N 06306W 01544 0082 082 042 154 154 044 01666 0000000000
0952. 1935N 06308W 01542 0082 084 040 160 160 041 01665 0000000000
0953 1935N 06310W 01544 0084 078 040 164 160 041 01668 0000000000
0953. 1935N 06312W 01542 0084 076 041 162 162 042 01667 0000000000
0954 1935N 06314W 01542 0085 078 039 160 160 040 01668 0000000000
0954. 1935N 06316W 01542 0085 076 040 164 152 040 01668 0000000000
0955 1935N 06318W 01543 0085 074 039 170 150 039 01669 0000000000