Tropical Storm Chris

[clfenwi]

Here are the center fixes of the mission... I calculated a heading of 304° between the first and last... which cover roughly a 5.5 hour time period.

18 deg 58 min N
062 deg 53 min W

18 deg 54 min N
062 deg 49 min W

18 deg 49 min N
062 deg 44 min W

18 deg 49 min N
062 deg 36 min W

18 deg 46 min N
062 deg 26 min W

18 deg 40 min N
062 deg 22 min W

18 deg 33 min N
062 deg 12 min W

[bvigal]

Chris has not made the turn west, in fact 11pm to 5am direction from 295 to 300degrees. This can't hit Hispaniola, without a south jog. As it is, will have to turn soon just to maintain the forecast track. Been watching it on radar loop and see no turn yet. When will it happen?

[DESTRUCTION5]

S FL residents pay special attention. I mentioned last night that I wasn't sold on the more southern FL straits path. From this mornings NHC Disc:


IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND NOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

I said this last night ans everyone thought i was nutz..

and we still do

LOL..J Lauderdale..This is about 70 miles south of messing up your day..id take it seriously...

[Windtalker1]

S FL residents pay special attention. I mentioned last night that I wasn't sold on the more southern FL straits path. From this mornings NHC Disc:


IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND NOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

I said this last night ans everyone thought i was nutz..

and we still do

LOL..J Lauderdale..This is about 70 miles south of messing up your day..id take it seriously...

I guess if enough people in S FL say it isn't going to hit here...maybe it won't. Mind over Matter....

[cycloneye]

556
WTNT33 KNHC 021133
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
800 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN...AND
ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES... 105 KM...NORTH OF ST. MARTIN.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS
MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY
OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM
...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION... 19.0 N 63.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[stormie]

I think Chris is going annular!


j/k btw

wxwatcher, it is far too early in the morning for your jests -- my eyes nearly popped out of my head when I read that...LOL! You got me...!

I was surprised to see the official NHC track shift north this morning. The models, FWTW, have been so far south that I had taken for granted that the track would continue to float south. Perhaps that goes to show what recon data adds to the picture?

Even to my novice eyes, Chris looks great this morning! I feel like I'm still a bit north of his potential path, but then again, I know it's close enough to pay attention to (as I have been, naturally) - and it's got my attention for sure!

[Aquawind]

1001Mb and 65kts.. Certainly looks like it but, I thought the RECON max FL wind was 67kts and they found 1003 MB..

[HouTXmetro]

Can someone provide a link or put up accuweather's latest track?

Thanks

[jlauderdal]

S FL residents pay special attention. I mentioned last night that I wasn't sold on the more southern FL straits path. From this mornings NHC Disc:


IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND NOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

I said this last night ans everyone thought i was nutz..

and we still do

LOL..J Lauderdale..This is about 70 miles south of messing up your day..id take it seriously...

i have a over 1000 dollars worth of newly purcahsed supplies in my garage including a new 8250 watt generator, 10000 btu portable ac unit and 150 feet of heavy duty extension cords to prove i take it seriousley, only thing not purchased yet is 50 gallons of gas to get me through 5 days and a variety of beverages and food. 13 total days without power lsat year between wilma and katrian believe me when i say the lsat thing i want is another storm but if it comes here so be it. Good Luck to all and prepare and lower anxiety level.

JF

[skysummit]

Can someone provide a link or put up accuweather's latest track?

Thanks

Uhhh...I bet you could find that on Accu's site.

[HURAKAN]

For the first time in Chris's life we can see the outflow trying to develop on the eastern semicircle (especially on the northwestern side).

[HouTXmetro]

Can someone provide a link or put up accuweather's latest track?

Thanks

Uhhh...I bet you could find that on Accu's site.

actually I glanced at it and couldn't. I really didn't have time to search thoroughly.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Just doing a quick scan of the upper level winds and overall ridge/tutt setup it kind of looks like the models have overcooked the strength of the ridge in their earlier forecasts. I can see where the NHC is coming from on that. To my untrained eyes the axis of the TUTT and Chris's center are already at a point where as the TUTT continues to move west, it's leaving a weakness. All in all the north movement makes sense. I would not be surprised to see a few signifcant shifts in track over the next 36 hours i.e. to GOM or not to GOM is the question now. S FL looks like a strong possibility now either way.

I also can see still see how the ridge could be pushed east after say 36 to 48 hours which would really throw in the monkey wrench. We'll just have to see.

[wxwatcher91]

wxwatcher, it is far too early in the morning for your jests -- my eyes nearly popped out of my head when I read that...LOL! You got me...!

I was surprised to see the official NHC track shift north this morning. The models, FWTW, have been so far south that I had taken for granted that the track would continue to float south. Perhaps that goes to show what recon data adds to the picture?

Even to my novice eyes, Chris looks great this morning! I feel like I'm still a bit north of his potential path, but then again, I know it's close enough to pay attention to (as I have been, naturally) - and it's got my attention for sure!

lol sorry about that

Currently it appears the models are not much help considering half of them still take Chris back into the Caribbean.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png[
I think Im going to go with the CLP5

seriously I think that anyone from Florida even up to South Carolina should watch this because of the trend northward. the track forecast is tricky since the models really arent helping much

*edited by staff to make the image a link - it's too big

[WindRunner]

Loop for long range radar out of TJUA - you can see the eye-like feature discussed, and it is moving slightly south of the 5am forecast track.

[jlauderdal]

wxwatcher, it is far too early in the morning for your jests -- my eyes nearly popped out of my head when I read that...LOL! You got me...!

I was surprised to see the official NHC track shift north this morning. The models, FWTW, have been so far south that I had taken for granted that the track would continue to float south. Perhaps that goes to show what recon data adds to the picture?

Even to my novice eyes, Chris looks great this morning! I feel like I'm still a bit north of his potential path, but then again, I know it's close enough to pay attention to (as I have been, naturally) - and it's got my attention for sure!

lol sorry about that

Currently it appears the models are not much help considering half of them still take Chris back into the Caribbean.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png
I think Im going to go with the CLP5


*edited by staff to make the image a link - it's too big

seriously I think that anyone from Florida even up to South Carolina should watch this because of the trend northward. the track forecast is tricky since the models really arent helping much

what do you see that is going to knock down that ridge enough to allow it to escape to north carolina? the globals are just getting a handle on the system and in fact were losing it yesterday so lets be careful jumping on a major shift north. this looks like a passage from homestead to havana

[BensonTCwatcher]

The BAM's are now essentially useless North of 20N they are tropicals. The only model that will be close to correct here is going to be GFS/GFDL and only then with enough recon data input. Hence the 500 mile shift in track after 3 days.....

[HURAKAN]

02/1145 UTC 18.9N 63.2W T3.5/3.5 CHRIS

Dvorak supports the RECON findings.

[wxwatcher91]

I didnt say all the way to NC. I said maybe to SC. I think that Chris could get strong enough to recurve a bit more than forecasted

[P.K.]

Just a warning about those model plots posted above. It would be best to upload them to ImageShack as the owner of the site doesn't appear to like hotlinking. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/media_guidelines.htm