Tropical Storm Chris

[BensonTCwatcher]

The ridge is strong now, but the upper level trough to it's NE is moving east as is typical this time of year. It may not have a huge effect on the ridge strength but I can't imagine that the ridge will stay put for another 4-5 days. The odds are still in favor of this not ending up in the WGOM. Today if nothing changes a Katrina like track looks very likely, but I expect a east or north shift in track based on the climo history.

[jasons2k]

True but highly unlikely this will make it all the way to Texas this time of year. Alot of things will change in the next seven days that could allow it to escape.

Chances are probably better THIS time of year when the ridge is in full force rather than later in the season when trofs & fronts work their way south.

[bvigal]

Here are the center fixes of the mission... I calculated a heading of 304° between the first and last... which cover roughly a 5.5 hour time period.

Thanks for doing that caculation, clfenwi! That makes sense to me, seeing it's nearly at 19N now.

By the way, when is the next recon?

[CourierPR]

The circulation of Chris appears to be expanding. An increase in size and intensity would not be a good omen.

[robbielyn]

can someone post a link that clearly shows the tutt? and please help me locate it once you do as I am learning and wouldn't be able to just pick it out.

[Air Force Met]

You can't accurately determine the motion of a storm if it has no eye....so the wobble watching is ridiculous.

I would have to respectfully disagree, the overall motion of the storm has been N of wNw since yesterday afternoon. It has a 310 heading as last discussion. 315 is NW.

Well...the discussion said:

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT TERM MOTION FROM THE LAST SEVERAL RECON FIXES YIELDS A MOTION OF 310/11.

Now...the motion from the 5am and the 8am advisory was 295...and the motion since 21Z yesterday has been 295., when you factor in the 8 AM advisory.

[Blown Away]

8/1/06 at 5pm the 12 hour position was 18.3/62.6
8/2/06 at 5am the position was: 18.8/62.6

8/1/06 at 11pm the 12 hour position was 18.9/63.3
8/2/06 at 8am the position was 19.0/63.0

Bottom line Chris continues to be North of the NHC predictions!

[x-y-no]

If and when the eye pops completely it goes from wobble watching to wobble debates *snickers*

Yeah ... maybe it's time for me to start announcing meeting times for WWA (Wobble Watchers Anonymous.) I'm a founding member myself.

[storms in NC]

I didnt say all the way to NC. I said maybe to SC. I think that Chris could get strong enough to recurve a bit more than forecasted

A storm can not recurve unless there is a weakness in the ridge, and in this case...there is not.

True but highly unlikely this will make it all the way to Texas this time of year. Alot of things will change in the next seven days that could allow it to escape.

The weather will not stay the same from one day to the next things can change very fast. So IMO it could go any where at this point. Yes it could go into the GOM or it could fine a weakens in the ridge and follow it up the east cost. It all depents on how strong the storm is too.
So to sit here and fight over no way it can go here or there just chill and take a kitkat. Just wait a few days and see. Maybe we all can get luckly and it would die or gos Fishing. But that last part would be very hard for it to do. Go fishing that is.

I have family from Ft Myers Fl to La. So yes I will watch the strom

[bvigal]

try looking at radar...
you can see the center very clearly there...

Yes, 5am discussion mentions this: "AN UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN RADAR IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH IT IS TILTED ABOUT 12 NMI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER."

As mets here explained in the last couple of days, radar beams travel upward, so the farther from the radar, the higher up you are looking - not at surface level. So, it may be difficult to determine motion from radar since not looking at actual center at the surface.

[Air Force Met]

I didnt say all the way to NC. I said maybe to SC. I think that Chris could get strong enough to recurve a bit more than forecasted

A storm can not recurve unless there is a weakness in the ridge, and in this case...there is not.

True but highly unlikely this will make it all the way to Texas this time of year. Alot of things will change in the next seven days that could allow it to escape.

The weather will not stay the same from one day to the next things can change very fast. So IMO it could go any where at this point. Yes it could go into the GOM or it could fine a weakens in the ridge and follow it up the east cost. It all depents on how strong the storm is too.
So to sit here and fight over no way it can go here or there just chill and take a kitkat. Just wait a few days and see. Maybe we all can get luckly and it would die or gos Fishing. But that last part would be very hard for it to do. Go fishing that is.

I have family from Ft Myers Fl to La. So yes I will watch the strom

It's ONLY this time of year that a storm in Chris's current location can make it to Texas.

It's all about the ridge.

[cajungal]

No bashing please, but this eerily reminds me of Andrew. Except for Andrew was a Cape Verde storm. Andrew was very small almost like Chris. And he did not explode until he got into the Bahamas. And he seems to be taking a similar (not exact but similar track) throught the Bahamas and possibly South Florida. Almost all the models have it entering the Gulf.

[HURAKAN]

Getting a very nice-looking round shape .

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, perhaps the good news is that the national weather service said that if it goes further North(towards Florida), it will encounter much more shear than if it goes further south, but if it goes further south of course there's a good chance of it being weakened overland. I think that's also why they aren't forecasting much strength increase once it reaches a hurricane. It would have to take a perfect course, avoiding land and avoiding shear to the North in order to intensify. Also, they mentioned the circulation being so small that it wont' take much to disrupt it.

Dusty

[Eyewall]

try looking at radar...
you can see the center very clearly there...

Yes, 5am discussion mentions this: "AN UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN RADAR IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH IT IS TILTED ABOUT 12 NMI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER."

As mets here explained in the last couple of days, radar beams travel upward, so the farther from the radar, the higher up you are looking - not at surface level. So, it may be difficult to determine motion from radar since not looking at actual center at the surface.

so that proves my point even further.. if the eye on radar is a bit north
and the surface eye is NE of that one.. then the LLC must be well north of the predictions

[bvigal]

Getting a very nice-looking round shape .

Yes, tt sure is looking better organized.

[ConvergenceZone]

No bashing please, but this eerily reminds me of Andrew. Except for Andrew was a Cape Verde storm. Andrew was very small almost like Chris. And he did not explode until he got into the Bahamas. And he seems to be taking a similar (not exact but similar track) throught the Bahamas and possibly South Florida. Almost all the models have it entering the Gulf.

True, but Andrew had MUCH MUCH better conditions to work with..

[robbielyn]

what's the shear like for the gom in the next few days?

[Eyewall]

No bashing please, but this eerily reminds me of Andrew. Except for Andrew was a Cape Verde storm. Andrew was very small almost like Chris. And he did not explode until he got into the Bahamas. And he seems to be taking a similar (not exact but similar track) throught the Bahamas and possibly South Florida. Almost all the models have it entering the Gulf.

True, but Andrew had MUCH MUCH better conditions to work with..

yea and Andrew was way north of this one

[sunny]

yea and Andrew was way north of this one

Yeah, this track is closer to Georges I think....