Cyclone Monica - Cat. 5

[Rod Hagen]

I believe a cyclone CAN cross the equator if the bacground relative vorticty is enough. Absolute vorticity is both platanery and relative vorticity

It would not be the most favorable set-up, but it is possible to cross the eq

Remember, a cyclone formed at .2N a couple of years ago in the Inidian Ocean, where Fc is ~0

I read somewhere that prior to developing into a tropical cyclone, Agni actually did cross the equator briefly. I think a scan showed pre-Agni at about 0.5S with a counter-clockwise spin.

I think the nearest it got was about 40 nautical miles, Bill. While it MAY be theoretically possible, as far as I know there has never been a recorded instance of the centre of one doing so (although the resulting outer winds may have, of course)

see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Agni

Cheers

Rod

[Rod Hagen]

Monica is continuing to look nastier and nastier.

BOM now predict it will reach Cat 5 before reaching shore - http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65811.shtml :




Bear in mind its roughly 300 miles from the west coast of Cape York to the east coast of Arnhem land when you look at this photo.





Spare a thought for the 4000 residents of Nhulunbuy, right in its path, and the many thousands more members of the very poor Aboriginal communities that lie along the Arnhem land coast.

Sure , these places are used to this sort of stuff, but this looks increasingly like it might be a bit more than the usual.

It doesn't look pretty.

Rod

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 0700 UTC 21 APRIL 2006

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica estimated within 15 nautical miles of
13.2 S 139.9 E moving slowly northwest. Central pressure 950 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 90 knots near centre increasing to 110 knots within 12 to 24
hours.
Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.
Winds above 48 knots within 45 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough
seas and moderate swell.

1800 UTC 21 Apr: centre within 40 nautical miles of 12.9 S 139.2 E.
945 hPa. Winds to 100 knots near centre.
0600 UTC 22 Apr: centre within 70 nautical miles of 12.6 S 138.3 E.
930 hPa. Winds to 110 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.



DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Rod Hagen]

Its arrival on the east Arnhem Land coast looks like it may also coincide with high tide, which ain't nice.

Rod

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like the eye is displaced to the southeast side of the convection. So maybe slow strengthing from the current 90 to 95 knots...To maybe 100 to 105 knots over the next 12 to 18 hours...I say might peak out around 110 knots???

[P.K.]

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060421/0600Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: Monica
NR: 19
PSN: S1312 E13954
MOV: NNW 2KT
C: 950HPA
MAX WIND: 90KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 21/1200 S1305 E13941
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 95KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 21/1800 S1251 E13913
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 22/0000 S1242 E13844
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 22/0600 S1239 E13821
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 110KT
NXT MSG: 20060421/1300Z

[Gorky]

She's opening her eye...

[HURAKAN]

Looks like the eye is displaced to the southeast side of the convection. So maybe slow strengthing from the current 90 to 95 knots...To maybe 100 to 105 knots over the next 12 to 18 hours...I say might peak out around 110 knots???

THERE IS NO DISPLACEMENT NOW!!!

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING GOOD!!!

[cycloneye]

Note=Thread will be locked when page 10 is complete and the thread is with 199 replies because after that it passes to page 11.The link of this first thread about Cyclone Monica will be posted at the first post of the new thread with the same title.This is part of the new format of talking tropics forum that we are implementing.

[recmod]

Looks like the eye is displaced to the southeast side of the convection. So maybe slow strengthing from the current 90 to 95 knots...To maybe 100 to 105 knots over the next 12 to 18 hours...I say might peak out around 110 knots???

The fact that an eye is displaced from the center does not necessarily indicate a lesser system...remember Hugo????



--Lou

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 41
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 pm CST Friday 21 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities between GROOTE
EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and ALYANGULA.

A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal and island communities between PORT ROPER
and GROOTE EYLANDT and also between ELCHO ISLAND and GOULBURN ISLAND.

At 7 pm CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 4 was located about 345
kilometres east southeast of Nhulunbuy, and 375 kilometres east northeast of
Alyangula, moving slowly northwest. The cyclone is intensifying and is expected
to continue moving slowly northwest across the Gulf of Carpentaria tonight and
on Saturday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 250
kilometres per hour may approach the northeast Arnhem Land coast on Saturday
night or early Sunday morning.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and ALYANGULA during
Saturday morning. GALES are expected to increase to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts
to 160 kilometres per hour in this area later on Saturday as the cyclone moves
closer to the coast.

GALES may extend further west into Arnhem land and along the coast to GOULBURN
ISLAND during Sunday. GALES may also extend south later on Saturday to PORT
ROPER if the cyclone takes a more westerly path.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND on Saturday night and Sunday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas on Sunday in northeastern Arnhem land.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 7 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 139.8 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... slowly towards the northwest
. Wind gusts near centre... 235 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 4
. Central pressure......... 950 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO
ISLAND. A CYCLONE WATCH extends south to PORT ROPER and west to GOULBURN ISLAND.

The next advice will be issued at 11 pm CST.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 42
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Friday 21 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities between GROOTE
EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and ALYANGULA.

A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal and island communities between PORT ROPER
and GROOTE EYLANDT and also between ELCHO ISLAND and GOULBURN ISLAND.

At 10pm CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 4 was located about 330
kilometres east southeast of Nhulunbuy, and 370 kilometres east northeast of
Alyangula, moving west northwest at 4 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is
intensifying and is expected to continue moving slowly west northwest across the
Gulf of Carpentaria tonight and on Saturday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 260
kilometres per hour may approach the northeast Arnhem Land coast on Saturday
night or Sunday morning.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and ALYANGULA during the
day on Saturday. GALES are expected to increase to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts
to 160 kilometres per hour in this area later on Saturday as the cyclone moves
closer to the coast.

GALES may extend further west into Arnhem land and along the coast to GOULBURN
ISLAND during Sunday. GALES may also extend south later on Saturday to PORT
ROPER if the cyclone takes a more westerly path.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND on Saturday night and Sunday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas on Sunday in northeastern Arnhem land.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 13.1 degrees South 139.7 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement....... towards the west northwest at 4 kilometres per hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 240 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 4
. Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO
ISLAND. A CYCLONE WATCH extends south to PORT ROPER and west to GOULBURN ISLAND.

The next advice will be issued at 2 am CST Saturday.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

40 kph more to Cat. 5.

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING ROUND!!! By the way, 115 mph, Cat. 3 in the Saffir-Simpson scale.

[CentralFlGal]

Monica is continuing to look nastier and nastier.

[...]

Spare a thought for the 4000 residents of Nhulunbuy, right in its path, and the many thousands more members of the very poor Aboriginal communities that lie along the Arnhem land coast.

Sure , these places are used to this sort of stuff, but this looks increasingly like it might be a bit more than the usual.

It doesn't look pretty.

Rod

I hope everyone in Monica's path is able to stay safe, including the Aboriginal peoples with less resources and infrastructure to support evacuation. This one looks scary.

[P.K.]

High resolution IR from early this afternoon. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropical_cyclones/tc06/SHEM/23P.MONICA/ir/modis/1km/20060421.1323.terra.x.ir1km.23PMONICA.100kts-944mb-132S-1397E.100pc.jpg

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 43
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 am CST Saturday 22 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities between GROOTE
EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and ALYANGULA.

A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal and island communities between PORT ROPER
and GROOTE EYLANDT and also between ELCHO ISLAND and GOULBURN ISLAND.

At 1 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 4 was located about 315
kilometres east southeast of Nhulunbuy, and 365 kilometres east northeast of
Alyangula, moving northwest at 5 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is
intensifying and is expected to move slowly west northwest across the Gulf of
Carpentaria.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 260
kilometres per hour may approach the northeast Arnhem Land coast tonight or
early on Sunday.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and ALYANGULA, this
afternoon. GALES may increase to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres
per hour in this area this evening as the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

GALES may extend further west into Arnhem land and along the coast to GOULBURN
ISLAND during Sunday. If the cyclone takes a more westerly path, GALES may
extend south to PORT ROPER on Sunday.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND tonight and on Sunday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas on Sunday in northeastern Arnhem land.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 1 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 12.9 degrees South 139.6 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 5 kilometres per hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 240 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 4
. Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO
ISLAND. A CYCLONE WATCH extends south to PORT ROPER and west to GOULBURN ISLAND.

The next advice will be issued at 5 am CST Saturday.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

NOTHING NEW!

[x-y-no]

Spare a thought for the 4000 residents of Nhulunbuy, right in its path, and the many thousands more members of the very poor Aboriginal communities that lie along the Arnhem land coast.

Sure , these places are used to this sort of stuff, but this looks increasingly like it might be a bit more than the usual.

It doesn't look pretty.

Rod

Nhulunbuy Was hit hard by Ingrid last year. Pretty tough to be getting another major cyclone this soon after.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 44
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST Saturday 22 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities between GROOTE
EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and ALYANGULA.

A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal and island communities between PORT ROPER
and GROOTE EYLANDT and also between ELCHO ISLAND and GOULBURN ISLAND.

At 4 am CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 4 was located about 300
kilometres east southeast of Nhulunbuy, and 355 kilometres east northeast of
Alyangula, moving northwest at 5 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is
intensifying and is expected to move slowly west northwest across the Gulf of
Carpentaria.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 260
kilometres per hour may approach the northeast Arnhem Land coast tonight or
early on Sunday.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND, including NHULUNBUY and ALYANGULA, this
afternoon. GALES may increase to DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres
per hour in this area this evening as the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

GALES may extend further west into Arnhem land and along the coast to GOULBURN
ISLAND during Sunday. If the cyclone takes a more westerly path, GALES may
extend south to PORT ROPER on Sunday.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND tonight and on Sunday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas on Sunday in northeastern Arnhem land.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 4 am CST:
. Centre located near...... 12.8 degrees South 139.5 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 5 kilometres per hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 240 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 4
. Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is current between GROOTE EYLANDT and ELCHO ISLAND.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends south to PORT ROPER and west to GOULBURN ISLAND.

The next advice will be issued at 8 am CST Saturday.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

NO CHANGE!!!

[HURAKAN]

110 knots. GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED BY THE MINUTE!