Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like Chanchu is supposed to make landfall in my home country as a Cat-2, just as I predicted!

[whereverwx]

Looking much better (btw, I'm testing another hosting site...).

[HURAKAN]

10/0233 UTC 8.9N 130.5E T3.5/3.5 CHANCHU -- West Pacific Ocean

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAY 2006 Time : 050000 UTC
Lat : 9:27:46 N Lon : 130:10:13 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 988.2mb/ 65.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +12.2mb

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 3.9 4.2 4.8

Eye Temp : -79.0C Cloud Region Temp : -78.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF

[HurricaneHunter914]

Chanchu is very organized right now and what a great start for the WPAC with their first typhoon forecasted to be a Cat-3 at best.

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING BETTER BY THE MINUTE. DON'T GO FAR BECAUSE THE FIRST TYPHOON OF THE SEASON IS AROUND THE CORNER!!!

[Weatherfreak000]

Looking pretty nice and I agree it is close to Typhoon status for sure.

[cycloneye]

60kts,980 mbs at 12:00z



Almost a typhoon now up to 60kts and pressure down to 980 mbs at the NRL 12:00z update.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 9.8N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 129.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 10.8N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 11.7N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.6N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.3N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.5N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.4N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.2N 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 128.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.


EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TYPHOON WHILE CROSSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES.

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 38&start=0



Link of first thread above.

Grapfic of 12:00z forecast

[CHRISTY]

Here's Hurricane Alley's forcast Looks like Hong Kong might be in trouble!

[MiamiensisWx]

Still looking good, but looks a bit sheared. Also, latest shear maps indicate that shear is increasing over and to the north of Chanchu. Slow movement may be contributing to this or be indicating this shear.

[CHRISTY]

She's trying to develope an eyewall....Look at this Microwave imagery.

[whereverwx]

Continuing to improve...

[SouthFloridawx]

those are some cool graphics you got there calamity

[CHRISTY]

You can see the CDO expanding on this IR loop.... Monster in the Making!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/westpac/storm/archive/javanh11.html

[JonathanBelles]

dont they do the 6-hr advisory schedule? If so, wheres the 18Z forecast graphic?

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest from the JMA...

T0601 (CHANCHU)
Issued at 18:00 UTC 10 May 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 10.3N 129.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 160NM

FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 12.8N 124.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 121800UTC 14.7N 119.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
72HF 131800UTC 15.6N 117.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT

[CHRISTY]