Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Bgator]

Ok, i can see a spin on cuba radarm i realize it stinks, but i really see one and it may be MLL, but u can see as pin on cuba radar....

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

It is west of tip of cuba moving NNE, please are my eyes deceiving me!

anyone?

[Audrey2Katrina]

Ok, i can see a spin on cuba radarm i realize it stinks, but i really see one and it may be MLL, but u can see as pin on cuba radar....

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

It is west of tip of cuba moving NNE, please are my eyes deceiving me!

I can see what you're saying; but this thing has had many vortices, and this looks to me like just another. The principle CoC is that larger blob to the North and West as I see it... but I'll leave the actual determination of what is what to the pros. But that's my take on that particular radar loop.

A2K

[Normandy]

^ That looks like its under that blow up of convection near the tip of cuba or around there.




Seems like one of the many spins of this disorganized mess.

[ericinmia]

FSUmm5 00z still predicting N.O landfall...



NOGAPS 00z takes TD1 to the mouth of N.O. but then... Abruptly turns it into the Florida big bend....

[Audrey2Katrina]

Granted; but aside from the disclaimer that it's just an experimental model and not anything official, it also, upon closer scrutiny shows a possible if not probable shift to a more NNE, to NE track beyond that 48 hour cone. While it clearly suggests New Orleans to be in a wide sphere of possibilities, and 120 hours out is awfully far out to make such projections, especially given prevailing situations in the Gulf, I'd say even this model shows a "tweak" to the NE beyond that central Gulf location.

A2K

[hriverajr]

Am I imagining or is the llc way way off to the west now? in fact bouy 42003 has ese winds. In fact looking at many of the bouy reports they don't jive with the current official postion



Hector

[P.K.]

11/0545 UTC 23.6N 86.3W T1.5/1.5 01L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Thunder44]

Winds are picking up at buoy 42003. Wind gusts now to TS force.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Wave heights are also up to 14 ft.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

In the image you can almost clearly see the center of circulation. If you put it on loop is even better.

[KWT]

It's going to have a hard time out there as its close to that very dry air but Imust admit, that does look like the dominant center and you can see convection starting to wrap round on the eastern and northern side, though the real test will be for convection to get around the western side. Still very lop-sided as well.

[HURAKAN]

It's going to have a hard time out there as its close to that very dry air but Imust admit, that does look like the dominant center and you can see convection starting to wrap round on the eastern and northern side, though the real test will be for convection to get around the western side. Still very lop-sided as well.

That's right. Now the NHC will have to make a decision if the RECON finds the center and as we know, the system has winds of tropical storm intensity. The system is very lop-sided and the dry air is all around it kind of shoking the storm. Will they upgrade it or not?

[HURAKAN]

Furthermore, over its entire (short) life, the system has lacked a dominant center of circulation, and it seems that now it has even though conditions in the GOM is not great for development.

[wxman57]

It does look like a significant LLC is separating from the convection near 24.3N/88W and moving WNW. We may be left with a slow-moving LLC in the central Gulf beneath a region of high shear that lasts for days and days as the diminishing squalls move NNE across Florida today/tonight/Monday.

[caneman]

The LLC has moved away into dry air and high shear. IMHO this system is dead or dying. I'm now concerend that we may not get enough of that much needed rainfall in Central Florida.

[hriverajr]

It does look like a significant LLC is separating from the convection near 24.3N/88W and moving WNW. We may be left with a slow-moving LLC in the central Gulf beneath a region of high shear that lasts for days and days as the diminishing squalls move NNE across Florida today/tonight/Monday.

That is what I was thinking.. The LLC is way west of the official TPC position

[wxman57]

The more I look at it, the more I'm convinced this thing is splitting in two. The squalls are moving NNE into Florida with no LLC. The LLC is moving west into a region of high shear and very dry air in the central Gulf. By Wednesday, upper winds over the remnant swirl in the mid Gulf may be 50-70 kts from the west. Looking doubtful this will ever be a TS.

[RQSTR]

do you think Alberto is not TD1? I do think... And latest recon seems to confirm...

[dixiebreeze]

Still alive, but struggling:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg

[Aquawind]

I hear ya caneman I hope the dynamics stay good for the displaced convection to continue as it moves northward. It is looking pathetic in organization but there is still a swirl so we can keep hope.. What a teasing swirly mess..

[Coredesat]

Looks like the LLC is really running away from the convection:



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If this continues, I imagine the last advisory will come sometime today.