Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

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DESTRUCTION5
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#161 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:07 am

drezee wrote:TD #8

982
WHXX01 KWBC 121301
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082006) ON 20060912 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060912 1200 060913 0000 060913 1200 060914 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.4N 22.2W 13.0N 24.9W 13.5N 28.1W 14.0N 31.5W
BAMM 12.4N 22.2W 12.8N 25.2W 13.2N 28.8W 13.6N 32.9W
A98E 12.4N 22.2W 12.5N 25.7W 12.8N 29.2W 13.0N 32.7W
LBAR 12.4N 22.2W 12.6N 25.5W 12.9N 29.1W 13.2N 33.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060914 1200 060915 1200 060916 1200 060917 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 35.0W 16.7N 40.5W 19.8N 43.4W 21.4N 44.5W
BAMM 13.9N 37.3W 14.4N 45.0W 15.7N 49.6W 16.8N 51.3W
A98E 13.3N 35.9W 14.1N 41.1W 15.4N 45.0W 17.9N 47.8W
LBAR 13.6N 37.8W 13.5N 45.9W 16.3N 47.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 63KTS 82KTS 95KTS 103KTS
DSHP 63KTS 82KTS 95KTS 103KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 22.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 18.7W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 15.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Right to Cat 3 with this baby..
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Noah
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#162 Postby Noah » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:08 am

NAMMA means?
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#163 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:09 am

Not really that suprising, it is a biggie and it has extremely cold cloud tops and intense convection depsite having some drier air to the west.
If we do have a long tracked system it'll do wonders for the ACe so far this season which is rather puny.
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#164 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:09 am

drezee wrote:TD #8

982
WHXX01 KWBC 121301
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082006) ON 20060912 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060912 1200 060913 0000 060913 1200 060914 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.4N 22.2W 13.0N 24.9W 13.5N 28.1W 14.0N 31.5W
BAMM 12.4N 22.2W 12.8N 25.2W 13.2N 28.8W 13.6N 32.9W
A98E 12.4N 22.2W 12.5N 25.7W 12.8N 29.2W 13.0N 32.7W
LBAR 12.4N 22.2W 12.6N 25.5W 12.9N 29.1W 13.2N 33.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060914 1200 060915 1200 060916 1200 060917 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 35.0W 16.7N 40.5W 19.8N 43.4W 21.4N 44.5W
BAMM 13.9N 37.3W 14.4N 45.0W 15.7N 49.6W 16.8N 51.3W
A98E 13.3N 35.9W 14.1N 41.1W 15.4N 45.0W 17.9N 47.8W
LBAR 13.6N 37.8W 13.5N 45.9W 16.3N 47.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 63KTS 82KTS 95KTS 103KTS
DSHP 63KTS 82KTS 95KTS 103KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 22.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 18.7W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 15.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


That position is farther south than it was at 06Z were it was located at 13.0N
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cycloneye
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#165 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:10 am

But not so fast at storm2k as we have the policy to wait for a statement or an advisory to then have the official information.
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#166 Postby senorpepr » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:10 am

Noah wrote:NAMMA means?
NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses

http://namma.nsstc.nasa.gov/index.html
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#167 Postby P.K. » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:11 am

Flight path so far with SSTs added. No dropsonde data availible yet.

Image
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#168 Postby Noah » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 am

senorpepr wrote:
Noah wrote:NAMMA means?
NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses

http://namma.nsstc.nasa.gov/index.html


:D Thank you soo much! I linked it, how interesting.
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#169 Postby boca » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 am

It looks like where tracking another fish, but its something to track.
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#170 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:16 am

A pro met told me by Private Message that he has information that is official about the upgrade to TD so storm2k will go with that.
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#171 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:17 am

Classic Cape Verde roller! Sure hope that track turn materializes but I'm not sold yet. The weakness in the ridge Gordon is turning up through may not last long. The remnant circulation of Florence may actually help rebuild the ridge to its south and steer any easterly moving trough north.
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#172 Postby mike815 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:18 am

Im not sure about this one tracking out to sea at all this one could have my attention for a long while out to sea i wouldnt bet on it just because the last 2 did doesnt mean this one will. Its got a long road ahead of it
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#173 Postby TheRingo » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:20 am

after Gordon goes north and the ridge fills back in this could be a concern.
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#174 Postby boca » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:25 am

Remember folks I think the US mainland possibly could be protected from a system coming from the ESE because these troughs or fronts keep rolling on in and off the east coast. You have to look at the longer picture.
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#175 Postby skysummit » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:30 am

Boca....we know what you think. You must've posted the same thing 27 times in this thread. You must also look at the longer picture. Conditions will not remain the same for the next 2 weeks. Anything's a possibility right now.
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#176 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:34 am

The NHC was also able to get a confirmation due to ship reports at 12z.
One ship in front of the center:
SHIP S 1200 11.80 -23.40 155 212 350 19.4 - 3.3 3.0 - - 29.85 +0.01 73.8 78.8

One ship behind:
SHIP S 1200 11.80 -21.50 135 167 170 9.7 - - - - - 29.81 +0.00 78.8 82.4

These obs would suggest that the center is either:
1. Further S
2. Elongated NNE to SSW
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#177 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:36 am

Model Plot:

Image
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#178 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:36 am

Just off a few glances, It does not have the inital look of an elongated system. I'd look at the LLC is to the south and within the convection.
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#179 Postby boca » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:41 am

TD8 looks great for being so far east in the Atlantic.Maybe this will be a major.
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#180 Postby Hyperstorm » Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:50 am

Very classic Cape Verde cyclone:

Image

Notice the lack of convection on the NE side of the circulation. That is quite common in this part of the ocean due to a few factors, including dry and stable marine air coming from the north and east as well as easterly shear associated with a strong upper-level high (also likely causing the fast movement...20mph). As systems move south and west of the Cape Verde islands that normally changes and significant development takes place.

SSTs 84* and rising...
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