Tropical Storm Chris

conestogo_flood · #1601 Postby **conestogo_flood** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:14 am

Is there radar from the Antilles?

x-y-no · #1602 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:15 am

Derek Ortt wrote:when they stop depicting a near hurricane as a tropical wave

Amen!

flhurricaneguy · #1603 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:15 am

does anyone think the track will shift north at 11am?

NONAME · #1604 Postby **NONAME** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:16 am

New image show it with a little less convection on the southern side.

dwg71 · #1605 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:17 am

flhurricaneguy wrote:does anyone think the track will shift north at 11am?

Yes, from what I can gather it will have the storm further north based on model shift.

#1606 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:17 am

12Z runs..

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

*edited by staff to make the image a link - it's too big

#1607 Postby **bvigal** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:17 am

flhurricaneguy wrote:does anyone think the track will shift north at 11am?

Yes, it is definitely north of the last forecast track.

x-y-no · #1608 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:18 am

flhurricaneguy wrote:does anyone think the track will shift north at 11am?

Yes. I'll bet the NHC track will be very close to Derek's. My guess is they won't be quite as agressive with intensity, though. They're pretty conservative about that.

flhurricaneguy · #1609 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:19 am

i agree all the models were pointing either through or south of cuba last night and they have all adjusted to the north

#1610 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:19 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt1.html

Dvorak is currently estimating the pressure at 994mb
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.0mb/ 55.0kt

flhurricaneguy · #1611 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:20 am

when is the next recon?

MiamiensisWx · #1612 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:21 am

I would not be surprised if Chris may be a marginal hurricane already, based on satellite classifications and the small windfield.

x-y-no · #1613 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:21 am

flhurricaneguy wrote:when is the next recon?

2PM AST, I think.

bkdelong · #1614 Postby **bkdelong** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:21 am

re: the other thread. Does anyone have Long/Lat for each of the 4 points for the Hebert Boxes ?

gtalum · #1615 Postby **gtalum** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:21 am

Except the BAM's seem to be back south of Cuba again.

clfenwi · #1616 Postby **clfenwi** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:22 am

You read it correctly... takeoff time is at 17Z, which is 1 PM Eastern Daylight Time. I'm thinking that if they take off more on less on time, they'll be able to get a vortex data message out for the 2 PM advisory.

flhurricaneguy · #1617 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:22 am

the gfdl is south of cuba also

#1618 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:23 am

bkdelong wrote:re: the other thread. Does anyone have Long/Lat for each of the 4 points for the Hebert Boxes ?

Google it and see what you find... I'm sure something with come up.

bkdelong · #1619 Postby **bkdelong** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:25 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:
bkdelong wrote:re: the other thread. Does anyone have Long/Lat for each of the 4 points for the Hebert Boxes ?

Google it and see what you find... I'm sure something with come up.

Did that first

Only found drawings at the moment. I wasn't sure of Paul Hebert just plunked it there or picked actual Long/Lat points.

#1620 Postby **AJC3** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:26 am

conestogo_flood wrote:Is there radar from the Antilles?

Chris is already past the range of the Guadeloupe radar. However the TC shows up nicely on the San Juan radar's long range view.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 1&loop=yes

Here's a thread concerning a long period radar time lapse that I made...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... highlight=

Tropical Storm Chris

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