Tropical Storm Alberto

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I heard that cuba got 30 inches of rain on the news last night from this.

[lester]

Possible Alberto related death: I heard on xm radio that a plane crashed into a house in Tampa Bay. One dead and one injured.

yep...i believe that was in Davis Island

[Dean4Storms]

Yeah, didn't think so. That blow-up this morning sure sent many around here into panic... good practice for the rest of the season, I suppose.

Thank God it was early June and that this isn't a harbinger of things to come July and Aug.

[Stormcenter]

It's easy to see where the center is right now. The southern half is completely exposed.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[weatherSnoop]

Dean, does that mean we won't need the humidor for awhile?

[Stratusxpeye]

Possible Alberto related death: I heard on xm radio that a plane crashed into a house in Tampa Bay. One dead and one injured.

yep...i believe that was in Davis Island

Yes it was. Its been on our morning radio stations and the local news channels. Dunno if theyll relate it to the storm or not though.

[CHRISTY]

Yeah, didn't think so. That blow-up this morning sure sent many around here into panic... good practice for the rest of the season, I suppose.

Thank God it was early June and that this isn't a harbinger of things to come July and Aug.

acually i do think its a sign of things to come in 2006.everyone has to ready for the possiblity that this year might turn out like 2005.in my opinion its not likely but the chance is their.

[butch]

4 pm CT advisory still has 60kt winds.

[Noles2006]

Huh... I think they're just trying to keep people on their toes by keeping the sustained winds at 70 mph... just in case something does happen overnight...

[Dean4Storms]

4 pm CT advisory still has 60kt winds.

I think they have to hold it there just in case, but I've seen nothing you could hang a hat on that supports the notion that those flight level winds are anywhere near the surface. All I've seen is 40kts at buoy's and no reporting stations along the coast anywhere near 70mph. We will have to wait till tonight to see what winds get observed.

Often times in a system like this you have to get very deep convection to transport those winds to the surface and the convection is waning.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The recon confirmed earlier that the winds where 60 knots...If the system had a soild core with the 81 knots reported it would of been a hurricane. But because of it being sheared/dry air getting in ther it was kepted at 60 knots. This is still a strong way to start the hurricane season.

[Stormcenter]

Yeah, didn't think so. That blow-up this morning sure sent many around here into panic... good practice for the rest of the season, I suppose.

Thank God it was early June and that this isn't a harbinger of things to come July and Aug.

acually i do think its a sign of things to come in 2006.everyone has to ready for the possiblity that this year might turn out like 2005.in my opinion its not likely but the chance is their.

It won't happen. IMO

[Noles2006]

Matt -- that was earlier. Obvious weakening (at least to me) has occurred since the last obs. Also, Derek and wxman57 think that the winds aren't transititioning down to the surface as they normally do (as this system is somewhat of a hybrid). I'd say this is a 50 mph TS at the max right now based on buoy's and other reporting stations.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it fired up because it pasted over the loop current. That means it is more then ready right now once other factors become more faverable.

[Ivanhater]

Huh... I think they're just trying to keep people on their toes by keeping the sustained winds at 70 mph... just in case something does happen overnight...

I agree, better safe than sorry, I just cant see this making hurricane status at least today. I have been looking at radar and satellite all day and it has been going downhill since this morning. However, this thing likes to pull some tricks at night so I agree with the NHC call on making it a cat1.

[Brent]

It is defintely weaker than earlier. I'll be surprised if it doesn't come in weaker than 60-65 mph, and it probably won't be that strong for anyone.

[Noles2006]

Matt -- what other factors will become more favorable before landfall? The water temps are getting cooler and the water itself is become much more shallow as the system approaches land. It's out of time to strengthen, IMO. I've seen this many-a-times with systems approaching the big bend and it seems they always weaken before making landfall...

[Droop12]

Funny how you guys felt the same way last night...Anyways, I believe 60-70mph tropical storm at landfall. Hope you guys get the rain you need.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also I was talking about later this season when things become more faverable.

[Ivanhater]

Definite dry air entrainment punching through the western-side along with shear.